Sensitivity to assumptions in models of generalist predation on a cyclic prey

Ecological theory predicts that generalist predators should damp or suppress long-term periodic fluctuations (cycles) in their prey populations and depress their average densities. However, the magnitude of these impacts is likely to vary depending on the availability of alternative prey species and the nature of ecological mechanisms driving the prey cycles. These multispecies effects can be modeled explicitly if parameterized functions relating prey consumption to prey abundance, and realistic population dynamical models for the prey, are available. These requirements are met by the interaction between the Hen Harrier (Circus cyaneus) and three of its prey species in the United Kingdom, the Meadow Pipit (Anthus pratensis), the field vole (Microtus agrestis), and the Red Grouse (Lagopus lagopus scoticus). We used this system to investigate how the availability of alternative prey and the way in which prey dynamics are modeled might affect the behavior of simple trophic networks. We generated cycles in one of the prey species (Red Grouse) in three different ways: through (1) the interaction between grouse density and macroparasites, (2) the interaction between grouse density and male grouse aggressiveness, and (3) a generic, delayed density-dependent mechanism. Our results confirm that generalist predation can damp or suppress grouse cycles, but only when the densities of alternative prey are low. They also demonstrate that diametrically opposite indirect effects between pairs of prey species can occur together in simple systems. In this case, pipits and grouse are apparent competitors, whereas voles and grouse are apparent facilitators. Finally, we found that the quantitative impacts of the predator on prey density differed among the three models of prey dynamics, and these differences were robust to uncertainty in parameter estimation and environmental stochasticity.     

Native plant diversity resists invasion at both low and high resource levels

Human modification of the environment is causing both loss of species and changes in resource availability. While studies have examined how species loss at the local level can influence invasion resistance, interactions between species loss and other components of environmental change remain poorly studied. In particular, the manner in which native diversity interacts with resource availability to influence invasion resistance is not well understood. We created experimental plant assemblages that varied in native species (1-16 species) and/or functional richness (defined by rooting morphology and phenology; one to five functional groups). We crossed these diversity treatments with resource (water) addition to determine their interactive effects on invasion resistance to spotted knapweed (Centaurea maculosa), a potent exotic invader in the intermountain West of the United States. We also determined how native diversity and resource addition influenced plant-available soil nitrogen, soil moisture, and light. Assemblages with lower species and functional diversity were more heavily invaded than assemblages with greater species and functional diversity. In uninvaded assemblages, experimental addition of water increased soil moisture and plant-available nitrogen and decreased light availability. The availability of these resources generally declined with increasing native plant diversity. Although water addition increased susceptibility to invasion, it did not fundamentally change the negative relationship between diversity and invasibility. Thus, native diversity provided strong invasion resistance even under high resource availability. These results suggest that the effects of local diversity can remain robust despite enhanced resource levels that are predicted under scenarios of global change.     

Pre-migratory life history stages of juvenile Arctic birds: costs, constraints, and trade-offs

Many young birds on the Arctic tundra are confronted by a challenging task: they must molt their feathers and accumulate fat stores for the autumn migration before climatic conditions deteriorate. Our understanding of the costs and constraints associated with these stages is extremely limited. We investigated post-juvenal molt and premigratory fattening in free-ranging juvenile White-crowned Sparrows (Zonotrichia leucophrys gambelii) on the Arctic tundra. We found evidence for trade-offs between premigratory fat accumulation and molt: heavily molting birds had significantly less fat. Birds increased the rate of fat accumulation as the season progressed, but we found no evidence of a similar increase in rate of molt. Using a controlled captive study to isolate the energetic costs of body feather replacement, we found no difference in fat or size-corrected mass of birds actively growing body feathers as compared to controls. Molting birds, however, consumed 17% more food than controls, suggesting a significant cost of body feather growth. Our results provide evidence of significant costs, constraints, and trade-offs associated with post-juvenal molt and premigratory fat accumulation in young Arctic birds.     

Predator hunting mode and habitat domain alter nonconsumptive effects in predator-prey interactions

Predators can affect prey populations through changes in traits that reduce predation risk. These trait changes (nonconsumptive effects, NCEs) can be energetically costly and cause reduced prey activity, growth, fecundity, and survival. The strength of nonconsumptive effects may vary with two functional characteristics of predators: hunting mode (actively hunting, sit-and-pursue, sit-and-wait) and habitat domain (the ability to pursue prey via relocation in space; can be narrow or broad). Specifically, cues from fairly stationary sit-and-wait and sit-and-pursue predators should be more indicative of imminent predation risk, and thereby evoke stronger NCEs, compared to cues from widely ranging actively hunting predators. Using a meta-analysis of 193 published papers, we found that cues from sit-and-pursue predators evoked stronger NCEs than cues from actively hunting predators. Predator habitat domain was less indicative of NCE strength, perhaps because habitat domain provides less reliable information regarding imminent risk to prey than does predator hunting mode. Given the importance of NCEs in determining the dynamics of prey communities, our findings suggest that predator characteristics may be used to predict how changing predator communities translate into changes in prey. Such knowledge may prove particularly useful given rates of local predator change due to habitat fragmentation and the introduction of novel predators.     

A PCE groundwater plume discharging to a river: influence of the streambed and near-river zone on contaminant distributions

An investigation of a tetrachloroethene (PCE) groundwater plume originating at a dry cleaning facility on a sand aquifer and discharging to a river showed that the near-river zone strongly modified the distribution, concentration, and composition of the plume prior to discharging into the surface water. The plume, streambed concentration, and hydrogeology were extensively characterized using the Waterloo profiler, mini-profiler, conventional and driveable multilevel samplers (MLS), Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) surveys, streambed temperature mapping (to identify discharge zones), drivepoint piezometers, and soil coring and testing. The plume observed in the shallow streambed deposits was significantly different from what would have been predicted based on the characteristics of the upgradient plume. Spatial and temporal variations in the plume entering the near-river zone contributed to the complex contaminant distribution observed in the streambed where concentrations varied by factors of 100 to 5000 over lateral distances of less than 1 to 3.5 m. Low hydraulic conductivity semi-confining deposits and geological heterogeneities at depth below the streambed controlled the pattern of groundwater discharge through the streambed and influenced where the plume discharged into the river (even causing the plume to spread out over the full width of the streambed at some locations). The most important effect of the near-river zone on the plume was the extensive anaerobic biodegradation that occurred in the top 2.5 m of the streambed, even though essentially no biodegradation of the PCE plume was observed in the upgradient aquifer. Approximately 54% of the area of the plume in the streambed consisted solely of PCE transformation products, primarily cis-1,2-dichloroethene (cDCE) and vinyl chloride (VC). High concentrations in the interstitial water of the streambed did not correspond to high groundwater-discharge zones, but instead occurred in low discharge zones and are likely sorbed or retarded remnants of past high-concentration plume discharges. The high-concentration areas (up to 5529 microg/l of total volatile organics) in the streambed are of ecological concern and represent potential adverse exposure locations for benthic and hyporheic zone aquatic life, but the effect of these exposures on the overall health of the river has yet to be determined. Even if the upgradient source of PCE is remediated and additional PCE is prevented from reaching the streambed, the high-concentration deposits in the streambed will likely take decades to hundreds of years to flush completely clean under natural conditions because these areas have low vertical groundwater flow velocities and high retardation factors. Despite high concentrations of contaminants in the streambed, PCE was detected in the surface water only rarely due to rapid dilution in the river and no cDCE or VC was detected. Neither the sampling of surface water nor the sampling of the groundwater from the aquifer immediately adjacent to the river gave an accurate indication of the high concentrations of PCE biodegradation products present in the streambed. Sampling of the interstitial water of the shallow streambed deposits is necessary to accurately characterize the nature of plumes discharging to rivers.     

METHODOLOGIES FOR CALIBRATION AND PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS OF A WATERSHED MODEL1

ABSTRACT: The use of a fitted parameter watershed model to address water quantity and quality management issues requires that it be calibrated under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, rarely does model calibration result in a unique parameter set. Parameter nonuniqueness can lead to predictive nonuniqueness. The extent of model predictive uncertainty should be investigated if management decisions are to be based on model projections. Using models built for four neighboring watersheds in the Neuse River Basin of North Carolina, the application of the automated parameter optimization software PEST in conjunction with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) is demonstrated. Parameter nonuniqueness is illustrated, and a method is presented for calculating many different sets of parameters, all of which acceptably calibrate a watershed model. A regularization methodology is discussed in which models for similar watersheds can be calibrated simultaneously. Using this method, parameter differences between watershed models can be minimized while maintaining fit between model outputs and field observations. In recognition of the fact that parameter nonuniqueness and predictive uncertainty are inherent to the modeling process, PEST's nonlinear predictive analysis functionality is then used to explore the extent of model predictive uncertainty.     

Calibration and Verification of SWMM for Low Impact Development

The Storm Water Management Model was used to simulate runoff and nutrient export from a low impact development (LID) watershed and a watershed using traditional runoff controls. Predictions were compared to observed values. Uncalibrated simulations underpredicted weekly runoff volume and average peak flow rates from the multiple subcatchment LID watershed by over 80%; the single subcatchment traditional watershed had better predictions. Saturated hydraulic conductivity, Manning's n for swales, and initial soil moisture deficit were sensitive parameters. After calibration, prediction of total weekly runoff volume for the LID and traditional watersheds improved to within 12 and 5% of observed values, respectively. For the validation period, predicted total weekly runoff volumes for the LID and traditional watersheds were within 6 and 2% of observed values, respectively. Water quality simulation was less successful, Nash–Sutcliffe coefficients >0.5 for both calibration and validation periods were only achieved for prediction of total nitrogen export from the LID watershed. Simulation of a 100‐year, 24‐h storm resulted in a runoff coefficient of 0.46 for the LID watershed and 0.59 for the traditional watershed. Results suggest either calibration is needed to improve predictions for LID watersheds or expanded look‐up tables for Green–Ampt infiltration parameter values that account for compaction of urban soil and antecedent conditions are needed.     

In situ ammonia removal in bioreactor landfill leachate

Although bioreactor landfills have many advantages associated with them, challenges remain, including the persistence of NH(3)-N in the leachate. Because NH(3)-N is both persistent and toxic, it will likely influence when the landfill is biologically stable and when post-closure monitoring may end. An in situ nitrogen removal technique would be advantageous. Recent studies have shown the efficacy of such processes; however, they are lacking the data required to enable adequate implementation at field-scale bioreactor landfills. Research was conducted to evaluate the kinetics of in situ ammonia removal in both acclimated and unacclimated wastes to aid in developing guidance for field-scale implementation. Results demonstrate that in situ nitrification is feasible in an aerated solid waste environment and that the potential for simultaneous nitrification and denitrification (even under low biodegradable C:N conditions) in field-scale bioreactor landfills is significant due to the presence of both aerobic and anoxic areas. All rate data fit well to Monod kinetics, with specific rates of removal of 0.196 and 0.117 mgN/day-g dry waste and half-saturation constants of 59.6 and 147 mgN/L for acclimated and unacclimated wastes, respectively. Although specific rates of ammonia removal in the unacclimated waste are lower than in the acclimated waste, a relatively quick start-up of ammonia removal was observed in the unacclimated waste. Using the removal rate expressions developed will allow for estimation of the treatment times and volumes necessary to remove NH(3)-N from recirculated landfill leachate.     

Long Term Trends in Sulphur and Nitrogen Deposition in Europe and the Cause of Non-linearities

Emissions of sulphur and oxidized nitrogen compounds in Europe have been reduced following a series of control measures during the last two decades. These changes have taken place during a period in which the primary gases and the wet deposition throughout Europe were extensively monitored. Since the end of the 1970s, for example land based sulphur emissions declined by between 90 and 70% depending on the region. Over the same period the total deposition of sulphur and its partitioning into wet and dry deposition have declined, but the spatial pattern in the reduction in deposition differs from that of emission and has changed with time. Such non-linearities in the emission-deposition relationship are important to understand as they complicate the process of assessing the effects of emission reduction strategies. Observed non-linearities in terrestrial sulphur emission-deposition patterns have been identified in north west Europe due to increases in marine emissions, and are currently slowing the recovery of freshwater ecosystems. Changes in the relative amounts of SO₂ and NH₃ in air over the last two decades have also changed the affinity of terrestrial surfaces for SO₂ and have therefore changed the deposition velocity of SO₂ over substantial areas. The consequence of this effect has been the very rapid reduction in ambient SO₂ concentration in some of the major source areas of Europe, where NH₃ did not change much. Interactions between the different pollutants, generating non-linearities are now being incorporated in long-range transport models to simulate the effects of historical emission trends and to provide projections into the future. This paper identifies non-linearities in emission deposition relationships for sulphur and nitrogen compounds in Europe using data from the EMEP long-rang transport model and measured concentration fields of the major ions in precipitation and of SO₂ and NO₂ in surface air.