Using the bootstrap with two-phase adaptive stratified samples from multiple populations at multiple locations

Recently the two-phase adaptive stratified sampling design proposed by Francis (1984) has been extended by Manly et al. (2002) for situations where several biological populations are sampled simultaneously, and where this is done at several different geographical locations in order to estimate population totals or means. The method uses the results from a first phase sample to decide how best to allocate a second phase sample to locations and strata, in order to maximise a criterion (based on estimated coefficients of variation) that measures the accuracy of estimation for population totals, for all variables at all locations. One potential problem with this method is bias in the estimators of the population totals and means. In this paper bootstrapping is considered as a means of overcoming these biases. It is shown using model populations of Pacific walrus and shellfish, based on real data, that bootstrapping is a useful tool for removing about half of the bias. This is also confirmed from some simulations using artificial data.     

Airport noise, location rent, and the market for residential amenities

The present study reports on the influence of aircraft noise on housing prices in the vicinity of six major U.S. airports, including San Francisco, St. Louis, Cleveland, New Orleans, San Diego, and Buffalo. The sampling procedures attempt to control for the effect of accessibility on location rent, and hence, housing prices. Regression results are reported for the individual samples and for a pooled sample consisting of 845 observations. The regression coefficients for aircraft noise are stable about their weighted mean and are comparable to coefficient estimates from the pooled sample. Dummy variables and partitioned regressions are used to test for remaining accessibility effects.     

Statistical inference on patch-specific survival and movement rates from marked animals

Empirical estimates of patch-specific survival and movement rates are needed to parametrize spatially explicit population models, and for inference on the effects of habitat quality and fragmentation on populations. Data from radio-marked animals, in which both the fates and habitat locations of animals are known over time, can be used in conjunction with continuous-time proportional hazards models to obtain inferences on survival rates. Discrete-time conditional logistic models may provide inference on both survival and movement rates. We use Monte Carlo simulation to investigate accuracy of estimates of survival from both approaches, and movement rates from conditional logistic regression, for two habitats. Bias was low (relative bias < 0.04) and interval coverage accurate (close to the nominal 0.95) for estimates of habitat effect on survival based on proportional hazards. Bias was high ( relative bias 0.60) and interval coverage poor ( = 0.26 vs. nominal 0.95) for estimates of habitat effect based on conditional logistic regression; bias was especially influenced by heterogeneity in survival and the shape of the hazard function, whereas both bias and coverage were affected by ‘memory’ effects in movement patterns. Bias estimates of movement rate was low ( relative bias < 0.05), but interval coverage was poor ( = 0.48–0.80), possibly as a result of poor performance of a Taylor series estimate of variance. An example is provided from a radio-telemetry study of 47 wintering American woodcock (Scolopax minor), illustrating practical difficulties in field studies to parametrize these models. We also discuss extensions of continuous-time models to explicitly include a movement process, and further examine tradeoffs between continuous and discrete models.     

Benefits of protected areas for nonbreeding waterbirds adjusting their distributions under climate warming

Climate warming is driving changes in species distributions and community composition. Many species have a so-called climatic debt, that is, shifts in range lag behind shifts in temperature isoclines. Inside protected areas (PAs), community changes in response to climate warming can be facilitated by greater colonization rates by warm-dwelling species, but also mitigated by lowering extirpation rates of cold-dwelling species. An evaluation of the relative importance of colonization-extirpation processes is important to inform conservation strategies that aim for both climate debt reduction and species conservation. We assessed the colonization-extirpation dynamics involved in community changes in response to climate inside and outside PAs. To do so, we used 25 years of occurrence data of nonbreeding waterbirds in the western Palearctic (97 species, 7071 sites, 39 countries, 1993–2017). We used a community temperature index (CTI) framework based on species thermal affinities to investigate species turnover induced by temperature increase. We determined whether thermal community adjustment was associated with colonization by warm-dwelling species or extirpation of cold-dwelling species by modeling change in standard deviation of the CTI (CTI_SD). Using linear mixed-effects models, we investigated whether communities in PAs had lower climatic debt and different patterns of community change than communities outside PAs. For CTI and CTI_SD combined, communities inside PAs had more species, higher colonization, lower extirpation, and lower climatic debt (16%) than communities outside PAs. Thus, our results suggest that PAs facilitate 2 independent processes that shape community dynamics and maintain biodiversity. The community adjustment was, however, not sufficiently fast to keep pace with the large temperature increases in the central and northeastern western Palearctic. Our results underline the potential of combining CTI and CTI_SD metrics to improve understanding of the colonization-extirpation patterns driven by climate warming.     

Influence of sediment on the fate and toxicity of a polyethoxylated tallowamine surfactant system (MON 0818) in aquatic microcosms

The fate and toxicity of a polyethoxylated tallowamine (POEA) surfactant system, MON 0818, was evaluated in water-sediment microcosms during a 4-d laboratory study. A surfactant solution of 8 mg l(-1) nominal concentration was added to each of nine 72-l aquaria with or without a 3-cm layer of one of two natural sediments (total organic carbon (TOC) 1.5% or 3.0%). Control well water was added to each of nine additional 72-l aquaria with or without sediment. Water samples were collected from the microcosms after 2, 6, 24, 48, 72, and 96 h of aging to conduct 48-h toxicity tests with Daphnia magna and to determine surfactant concentrations. Elevated mortality of D. magna (43-83%) was observed in overlying water sampled from water-only microcosms throughout the 96-h aging period, whereas elevated mortality (23-97%) was only observed in overlying water sampled from water-sediment microcosms during the first 24h of aging. Measured concentrations of MON 0818 in water-only microcosms remained relatively constant (4-6 mg l(-1)) during the 96-h period, whereas the concentrations in overlying water from microcosms containing either of the two types of sediment dissipated rapidly, with half-lives of 13 h in the 3.0% TOC sediment and 18 h in the 1.5% TOC sediment. Both toxicity and the concentration of MON 0818 in overlying water decreased more rapidly in microcosms containing sediment with the higher percent TOC and clay and with a higher microbial biomass. Mortality of D. magna was significantly correlated with surfactant concentrations in the overlying water. These results indicate that the toxicity of the POEA surfactant in water rapidly declines in the presence of sediment due to a reduction in the surfactant concentration in the overlying water above the sediment.     

Use of X-ray absorption imaging to examine heterogeneous diffusion in fractured crystalline rocks

Heterogeneous diffusion in different regions of a fractured granodiorite from Japan has been observed and measured through the use of X-ray absorption imaging. These regions include gouge-filled fractures, recrystallized fracture-filling material and hydrothermally altered matrix. With the X-ray absorption imaging technique, porosity, relative concentration, and relative mass of an iodine tracer were imaged in two dimensions with a sub-millimeter pixel size. Because portions of the samples analyzed have relatively low porosity values, imaging errors can potentially impact the results. For this reason, efforts were made to better understand and quantify this error. Based on the X-ray data, pore diffusion coefficients (Dp) for the different regions were estimated assuming a single diffusion rate and a lognormal multirate distribution of Dp. Results show Dp for the gouge-filled fractures are over an order of magnitude greater than those of the recrystallized fracture-filling material, which in turn is approximately two times greater than those for the altered matrix. The recrystallized fracture-filling material was found to exhibit the greatest degree of variability. The results of these experiments also provide evidence that diffusion from advective zones in fractures through the gouge-filled fractures and recrystallized fracture-filling material could increase the pore space available for matrix diffusion. This evidence is important for understanding the performance of potential nuclear waste repositories in crystalline rocks as diffusion is thought to be an important retardation mechanism for radionuclides.     

The recovery of ammonia and hydrogen sulfide from ground-level area sources using dynamic isolation flux chambers: bench-scale studies

Controlled bench-scale laboratory experiments were conducted to evaluate the recovery of ammonia (NH3) and hydrogen sulfide (H2S) from dynamic isolation flux chambers. H2S (80-4000 ppb) and NH3 (5000-40,000 ppb) samples were diffused through the flux chamber to simulate ground level area source emissions while measuring the inlet and outlet flux chamber concentrations simultaneously. Results showed that the recovery of H2S during a 30-min sampling time was almost complete for concentrations >2000 ppb. At the lowest concentration of 80 ppb, 92.55% of the H2S could be recovered during the given sampling period. NH3 emissions exhibited similar behavior between concentrations of 5000-40,000 ppb. Within the 30-min sampling period, 92.62% of the 5000-ppb NH3 sample could be recovered. Complete recovery was achieved for concentrations >40,000 ppb. Predictive equations were developed for gas adsorption. From these equations, the maximum difference between chamber inlet and outlet concentrations of NH3 or H2S was predicted to be 7.5% at the lowest concentration used for either gas. In the calculation of emission factors for NH3 and H2S, no adsorption correction factor is recommended for concentrations >37,500 ppb and 2100 ppb for NH3 and H2S, respectively. The reported differences in outlet and inlet concentration above these ranges are outside the fullscale sensitivity of the gas sensing equipment. The use of 46-90 m of Teflon tubing with the flux chambers has apparently no effect on gas adsorption, because recovery was completed almost instantaneously at the beginning of the tests.     

Distribution and fractionation of phosphorus, cadmium, nickel, and lead in calcareous soils amended with composts

Composts improve organic carbon content and nutrients of calcareous soils but the accumulation and distribution of phosphorus and heavy metals among various fractions in soil may vary under the south Florida conditions. The accumulation of P, Cd, Ni, and Pb with depth and the distribution of water soluble, exchangeable, carbonate, Fe-Mn oxides, organic and residual forms of each element were investigated in soils amended with municipal solid waste (MSW) compost, co-compost and biosolids compost and inorganic fertilizer (as control). Total concentrations of P, Cd, Ni, and Pb were higher in the 0-22 cm soil layers and decreased considerably in the rock layers. These elements were in the decreasing order of P > Pb > Ni > Cd. Amounts of water soluble and exchangeable forms of P, Cd, Ni and Pb were negligible at 0-22 cm soil depths except for Cd in the 10-22 cm depth. Amending calcareous soil with either organic or inorganic amendments rendered phosphorus, nickle and lead in the residual form followed by Fe-Mn oxides form in the 0-10 and 10-22 cm soil layers. Cadmium was predominantly in the Fe-Mn oxides fraction followed by the residual and carbonate forms in both soil layers. A significant positive correlation was found between various organic carbon fractions and organic forms of P, Cd and Pb in the surface soil layer. Soil amended with MSW compost had higher concentration of Cd in the organic fraction whereas, co-compost and MSW compost amended soil had higher concentrations of organic Ni fraction in the 0-10 cm soil layer.     

Variation in sex steroids and phallus size in juvenile American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) collected from 3 sites within the Kissimmee-Everglades drainage in Florida (USA)

This 3-year study was designed to examine variation in plasma sex steroids, phallus size, and the standard error (S.E.) associated with these endpoints in juvenile alligators collected from 3 sites within the Kissimmee-Everglades drainage (Florida, USA) with varying concentrations of sediment organochlorine contaminants. We hypothesized that decreased plasma sex steroid concentrations and phallus size would be observed in the higher contaminant site when compared to the intermediate and lower contaminant sites. Furthermore, we hypothesized that greater S.E. associated with these endpoints would be observed for the populations from more contaminated sites. We found that differences existed with females from the higher contaminant site exhibiting lower plasma estradiol-17beta (E2) and testosterone (T) concentrations. Males from the higher contaminant site exhibited smaller phallus sizes than males from the intermediate and lower contaminant sites. Smaller phallus size in this case differed from that reported in Lake Apopka male alligators [Gen. Comp. Endocrinol. 116 (1999) 356] in that a significant positive relationship between body size and phallus size existed. No difference among sites was observed in plasma T for males. Lower S.E. was associated with E2 and T concentrations in females from the higher contaminant site and in phallus size in males from the higher contaminant site. This pattern was opposite to what we had hypothesized. We concluded that variation in plasma E2 and T concentrations, phallus size, and the S.E. associated with these endpoints exists among the 3 sites with the patterns matching the patterns of organochlorine contamination, although S.E. patterns were opposite to what was predicted.