Comment on “Assessment of Crop Loss from Ozone”

Abstract

A mathematical model is proposed for assessing health risk rates of fluctuating concentrations. Each time-averaged concentration may be regarded as a dose that, when applied to the dose-response curve, produces a risk of an adverse effect. A theoretical derivation shows that the dose-response pattern is a cumulative lognormal curve because of the diversity of the individuals in the exposed population. Similarly, the concentration pattern is a log-normal distribution because of the diversity of emission sources and dispersive processes. The health risk is produced by the overlapping of the right tail of the concentration distribution and the left tail of the dose-response curve. The evaluation of the joint probability in this region has been performed by numerical integration by computer in terms of two generalized parameters. One represents the geometric standard deviation of the concentration distribution relative to that of the dose-response curve, and the other represents the distance between the geometric mean concentration and the concentration producing an adverse response in 50% of the exposed population. These results are presented graphically and in tabular form. If the two parameters of the dose-response curve are known, the health risk of the concentration pattern may be calculated conveniently for any geometric mean and geometric standard deviation values.     

Use of toxicity identification evaluations to determine the pesticide mitigation effectiveness of on-farm vegetated treatment systems

Evidence of ecological impacts from pesticide runoff has prompted installation of vegetated treatment systems (VTS) along the central coast of California, USA. During five surveys of two on-farm VTS ponds, 88% of inlet and outlet water samples were toxic to Ceriodaphnia dubia. Toxicity identification evaluations (TIEs) indicated water toxicity was caused by diazinon at VTS-1, and chlorpyrifos at VTS-2. Diazinon levels in VTS-1 were variable, but high pulse inflow concentrations were reduced through dilution. At VTS-2, chlorpyrifos concentrations averaged 52% lower at the VTS outlet than at the inlet. Water concentrations of most other pesticides averaged 20-90% lower at VTS outlets. All VTS sediment samples were toxic to amphipods (Hyalella azteca). Sediment TIEs indicated toxicity was caused by cypermethrin and lambda-cyhalothrin at VTS-1, and chlorpyrifos and permethrin at VTS-2. As with water, sediment concentrations were lower at VTS outlets, indicating substantial reductions in farm runoff pesticide concentrations.     

Characterisation of weathered hydrocarbon wastes at contaminated sites by GC-simulated distillation and nitrous oxide chemical ionisation GC-MS, with implications for bioremediation

An extended analytical characterisation of weathered hydrocarbons isolated from historically contaminated sites in Alberta is presented. The characterisation of soil extracts, chromatographically separated into component classes, by GC-simulated distillation and nitrous oxide (N2O) chemical ionisation (CI) GC-MS provides new insights into the composition of the residual oil at these sites, the principal partition medium for risk critical components. The combined polar and asphaltene content of representative soil extracts ranged from 40% w/w to 70% w/w of the oils encountered. An abundance of C14-C22 2-4 ring alicyclics, alkylbenzenes and benzocycloparaffins is prevalent within the saturate fractions of site soils. Implications for the partitioning of risk critical compounds at sites with weathered hydrocarbons and the practical application of bioremediation technologies are discussed.     

Assessing Watershed-Scale, Long-Term Hydrologic Impacts of Land-Use Change Using a GIS-NPS Model

Land-use change, dominated by an increase in urban/impervious areas, has a significant impact on water resources. This includes impacts on nonpoint source (NPS) pollution, which is the leading cause of degraded water quality in the United States. Traditional hydrologic models focus on estimating peak discharges and NPS pollution from high-magnitude, episodic storms and successfully address short-term, local-scale surface water management issues. However, runoff from small, low-frequency storms dominates long-term hydrologic impacts, and existing hydrologic models are usually of limited use in assessing the long-term impacts of land-use change. A long-term hydrologic impact assessment (L-THIA) model has been developed using the curve number (CN) method. Long-term climatic records are used in combination with soils and land-use information to calculate average annual runoff and NPS pollution at a watershed scale. The model is linked to a geographic information system (GIS) for convenient generation and management of model input and output data, and advanced visualization of model results. The L-THIA/NPS GIS model was applied to the Little Eagle Creek (LEC) watershed near Indianapolis, Indiana, USA. Historical land-use scenarios for 1973, 1984, and 1991 were analyzed to track land-use change in the watershed and to assess impacts on annual average runoff and NPS pollution from the watershed and its five subbasins. For the entire watershed between 1973 and 1991, an 18% increase in urban or impervious areas resulted in an estimated 80% increase in annual average runoff volume and estimated increases of more than 50% in annual average loads for lead, copper, and zinc. Estimated nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) loads decreased by 15% mainly because of loss of agricultural areas. The L-THIA/NPS GIS model is a powerful tool for identifying environmentally sensitive areas in terms of NPS pollution potential and for evaluating alternative land use scenarios for NPS pollution management.     

Constructing Interpretable Environments from Multidimensional Data: GIS Suitability Overlays and Principal Component Analysis

In landscape planning applications, practitioners and governmental agencies are often faced with a broad array of clientele and constituents having particular land use requirements and needs, ranging from biological conservation to urban development, generating complex multidimensional regional planning goals and objectives. Under this often complex situation, investigators are searching for methods to intelligently simplify complicated spatial environments and render them into interpretable and practical settings. While numerous investigators have studied the generation of a single suitability map, we were interested in addressing the problem of coping with a set of many suitability maps. We applied a data reduction method, principal component analysis, across 15 suitability overlays representing diverse landscape requirements to search for simplified explanations indicating the latent structure of the landscape. The study area was located in a moraine landscape of southern Michigan. We discovered that the 15 suitability overlays could be reduced to seven dimensions, containing 65% of the original data structure and that the seven dimensions reflect a structure where a variety of land uses each have their own optimal spatial locations, indicating low to moderate competition between potentially conflicting land uses and rendering a more easily understood environment. This approach did not render a simple elegant solution but it did reduce the complexity associated with combining many suitability maps.     

The return of the giants: ecological effects of an increasing elephant population

Northern Botswana and adjacent areas, have the world's largest population of African elephant (Loxodonta africana). However, a 100 years ago elephants were rare following excessive hunting. Simultaneously, ungulate populations were severely reduced by decease. The ecological effects of the reduction in large herbivores must have been substantial, but are little known. Today, however, ecosystem changes following the increase in elephant numbers cause considerable concern in Botswana. This was the background for the "BONIC" project, investigating the interactions between the increasing elephant population and other ecosystem components and processes. Results confirm that the ecosystem is changing following the increase in elephant and ungulate populations, and, presumably, developing towards a situation resembling that before the reduction of large herbivores. We see no ecological reasons to artificially change elephant numbers. There are, however, economic and social reasons to control elephants, and their range in northern Botswana may have to be artificially restricted.     

Polychlorinated dibenzofuran (PCDF) and dibenzo-p-dioxin (PCDD) levels in organisms and sediments from the frierfjord, southern Norway

The contamination of a fjord region by PCDD and PCDF produced from a Mg-production plant has been studied. Levels in organisms (fish, crustacea, mussels) and sediments were determined. The results allowed an estimate of the spreading of PCDD/PCDF by coastal currents. The present situation is compared with available information from other contaminated areas and with data for other contaminants in the recipient area such as hexachlorobenzene and octachlorostyrene.     

PCDDs and PCDFs in human adipose tissue from the EPA FY82 NHATS repository

Analysis for tetra- through octachloro-PCDDs and PCDFs was completed for 46 tissue samples prepared from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Human Adipose Tissue Survey (NHATS). The samples were prepared as composites from over 900 specimens to represent the nine U.S. census divisions and three age groups (0–14, 15–44, and 45 plus years). The data demonstrate that PCDDs and PCDFs are prevalent in the general U.S. population and that differences exist with age.