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511.
This paper is concerned with uncertainties involved in projecting ambient air quality. Ambient air quality was projected by assuming a linear dependence on estimated future emissions. Future automotive emissions were estimated by a method recommended by EPA. Projections were made for the locations reported to have the highest ambient air concentrations of each pollutant; Chicago for carbon monoxide and the California South Coast Air Basin for hydrocarbon and oxidant. The sensitivity of the projections to several input parameters was determined.

The uncertainty in projection of air quality due to the use of a maximum, once-per-year concentration is large. For example, the reduction in total CO emissions in Chicago in 1975, necessary to meet the air quality standard, was as high as 68% or as low as 26%, depending on whether the historic high, 8 hr average concentration of 44 ppm or the 1970 maximum of 21 ppm was used. The effects of uncertainties in growth rates and fraction of emissions attributed to the automobile were also sizeable. Differences in automotive growth rate had a large near-term effect on projected concentrations, while differences in nonautomotive growth rate or fraction of emissions attributed to the automobile had a large long-term effect. The effect of 1975 interim automotive emission standards on projected air quality was negligible when compared with projected air quality based on the previous Federal automotive emission standards for 1975.  相似文献   
512.
Marine protected areas (MPAs) are key tools in addressing the global decline of sharks and rays, and marine parks and shark sanctuaries of various configurations have been established to conserve shark populations. However, assessments of their efficacy are compromised by inconsistent terminology, lack of standardized approaches to assess how MPAs contribute to shark and ray conservation, and ambiguity about how to integrate movement data in assessment processes. We devised a conceptual framework to standardize key terms (e.g., protection, contribution, potential impact, risk, threat) and used the concept of portfolio risk to identify key attributes of sharks and rays (assets), the threats they face (portfolio risk), and the specific role of MPAs in risk mitigation (insurance). Movement data can be integrated into the process by informing risk exposure and mitigation through MPAs. The framework is operationalized by posing 8 key questions that prompt practitioners to consider the assessment scope, MPA type and purpose, range of existing and potential threats, species biology and ecology, and management and operational contexts. Ultimately, MPA contributions to shark and ray conservation differ according to a complex set of human and natural factors and interactions that should be carefully considered in MPA design, implementation, and evaluation.  相似文献   
513.
Comprehensive analyses of long-term region-specific water resources developments could offer new insights for contemporary water resources planners and decision makers. The objective of this work was to analyze water supply development at the United States Military Academy (USMA) during the 19th and early 20th Centuries through the lens of selected modern water resources planning and management practices. Analysis of water usage, population, and technological growth revealed that changes in technology had a greater influence on total water withdrawals than an increase in population. The USMA water supply system evolved incrementally over much of the 141-year study period and failure to adequately recognize shortcomings in water supply options resulted in several suboptimal decisions. Communications and enhanced stakeholder participation might have resulted in alternative decisions.  相似文献   
514.
Sediment and nutrient concentrations in surface water in agricultural regions are strongly influenced by agricultural activities. In the Corn Belt, recent changes in farm management practices are likely to affect water quality, yet there are few data on these linkages at the landscape scale. We report on trends in concentrations of N as ammonium (NH(4)) and nitrate (NO(3)), soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), and suspended sediment (SS) in three Corn Belt streams with drainage areas of 12 to 129 km(2) for 1994 through 2006. During this period, there has been an increase in conservation tillage, a decline in fertilizer use, and consolidation of animal feeding operations in our study watersheds and throughout the Corn Belt. We use an autoregressive moving average model to include the effects of discharge and season on concentrations, LOWESS plots, and analyses of changes in the relation between discharge and concentration. We found significant declines in mean monthly concentrations of NH(4) at all three streams over the 13-yr period, declines in SRP and SS in two of the three streams, and a decline in NO(3) in one stream. When trend coefficients are converted to percent per year and weighted by drainage, area changes in concentration are -8.5% for NH(4), -5.9% for SRP, -6.8% for SS, and -0.8% for NO(3). Trends in total N and P are strongly tied to trends in NO(3), SRP, and SS and indicate that total P is declining, whereas total N is not.  相似文献   
515.
This paper describes the development of a methodology to theoretically assess the stormwater pollutant removal performances of structural best management practices (BMPs). The method combines the categorisation of the relative importance of the primary removal processes within 15 different BMPs with an evaluation of the ability of each process to remove a pollutant in order to generate a value representing the pollutant removal potential for each BMP. The methodology is demonstrated by applying it separately to a set of general water quality indicators (total suspended solids, biochemical and chemical oxygen demand, nitrates, phosphates and faecal coliforms) to produce a ranked list of BMP pollutant removal efficiencies. Given the limited amount of available monitoring data relating to the differential pollutant removal capabilities of BMPs, the resulting prioritization will support stakeholders in making urban drainage decisions from the perspective of pollutant removal. It can also provide inputs to existing urban hydrology models, which aim to predict the treatment performances of BMPs. The level of resilience of the proposed approach is tested using a sensitivity analysis and the limitations in terms of BMP design and application are discussed.  相似文献   
516.
On-ground natural resource management actions such as revegetation and remnant vegetation management can simultaneously affect multiple objectives including land, water and biodiversity resources. Hence, planning for the sustainable management of natural resources requires consideration of these multiple objectives. However, planning the location of management actions in the landscape often treats these objectives individually to reduce the process and spatial complexity inherent in human-modified and natural landscapes. This can be inefficient and potentially counterproductive given the linkages and trade-offs involved. We develop and apply a systematic regional planning approach to identify geographic priorities for on-ground natural resource management actions that most cost-effectively meet multiple natural resource management objectives. Our systematic regional planning approach utilises integer programming within a structured multi-criteria decision analysis framework. Intelligent siting can capitalise on the multiple benefits of on-ground actions and achieve natural resource management objectives more efficiently. The focus of this study is the human-modified landscape of the River Murray, South Australia. However, the methodology and analyses presented here can be adapted to other regions requiring more efficient and integrated planning for the management of natural resources.  相似文献   
517.
There is growing concern about the accumulation of metals in tropical agricultural soils. In this study, experimental results from batch studies were used to test whether multi-surface geochemical models could describe metal binding in selected Vietnamese soils. The multi-surface models considered metal binding to iron hydroxides (using the diffuse layer model), organic matter (Stockholm Humic model and NICA-Donnan model), and phyllosilicate clay (Gaines-Thomas equation) as well as complexation to dissolved organic and inorganic ligands in the solution phase. We found that for total dissolved Cd, Cu and Zn the two multi-surface models being tested provided very good model fits for all soils, as evidenced by low root-mean square errors between model predictions and observations. These results suggest that organic matter is an important sorbent for many metals in these soils. However, poor fits were obtained for Cr(III), Mn and Pb for all soils. The study also suggests that the pH is the main factor that controls the solubility of metals in tropical Fluvisols and Acrisols subjected to application of biosolids and wastewater, and that advanced multi-surface models can be used to simulate the binding and release of many trace metals.  相似文献   
518.
Two different experimental techniques employing conservative tracers to determine exfiltration losses in a sewer system are reported. Both techniques compare the in-sewer responses measured along designated indicator and reference sections to assess the level of exfiltration although with different degrees of reliability. The experimental and interpretation errors associated with a pulse dosing technique, in which Rhodamine WT is used as the single tracer, are described. The estimation of exfiltration requires the comparison of indicator and reference peaks which need to be well resolved and reproducible in order to provide realistic results. A more consistent technique involves the continuous dosing of two different tracers with the objective of producing simultaneous downstream peak tracer concentrations. Any errors due to flow variations are eliminated and the longer measurement period allows both peak and background concentrations to be more accurately determined. Rhodamine WT, Li and Br were used in different combinations over the approximately 20 min duration of each continuous dosing experiment and were found to demonstrate conservative behaviours with measured recoveries of 97.6-100.6%, 97.3-101.4% and 108.4-109.2%, respectively. The analytical problems associated with the determination of the different tracers in sewage are described and are shown to be responsible for the reduced accuracy of the results associated with the use of Br. The preferred combination of tracers is Rhodamine WT as the indicator and Li as the reference and these are shown to be capable of estimating sewer losses to an accuracy of +/-1.0% using the continuous dosing approach.  相似文献   
519.
Ten Key Questions About the Management of Water in the Yellow River Basin   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
Water is scarce in many regions of the world, clean water is difficult to find in most developing countries, there are conflicts between irrigation needs and urban demands, and there is wide debate over appropriate means of resolving these problems. Similarly, in China, there is limited understanding of the ways in which people, groups, and institutions contribute to, are affected by, and respond to changes in water quantity and quality. We use the example of the Yellow River basin to argue that these social, managerial, and policy dimensions of the present water problems are significant and overshadow the physical ones. Despite this, they receive relatively little attention in the research agenda, particularly of the lead agencies in the management of the Yellow River basin. To this end, we ask ten research questions needed to address the policy needs of water management in the basin, split into two groups of five. The first five relate to the importance of water in this basin and the changes that have affected water problems and will continue to do so. The second five questions represent an attempt to explore possible solutions to these problems.  相似文献   
520.
ABSTRACT: ArcView Nonpoint Source Pollution Modeling (AVNPSM), an interface between ArcView GIS and AGNPS (Agricultural Nonpoint Source Pollution Model) is developed in support of agricultural watershed analysis and nonpoint source pollution management. The interface is PC‐based and operates in a Windows environment. It consists of seven modules: AGNPS utility, parameter generator, input file processor, model executor, output visualizer, statistical analyzer, and land use simulator. Basic input data to the interface include: soil, digital elevation model, land use/cover, water features, climate, and information on management practices. Application of the AVNPSM to a sample watershed indicates that it is user friendly, flexible, and robust, and it significantly improves the efficiency of the nonpoint source pollution modeling process.  相似文献   
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