Hazards, spatial transmission and timing of outbreaks in epidemic metapopulations

Highly infectious, immunizing pathogens can cause violent local outbreaks that are followed by the agent’s extinction as it runs out of susceptible hosts. For these pathogens, regional persistence can only be secured through spatial transmission and geographically asynchronous epidemics. In this paper we develop a hazard model for the waiting time between epidemics. We use the model, first, to discuss the predictability in timing of epidemics, and, second, to estimate the strength of spatial transmission. Based on the hazard model, we conclude that highly epidemic pathogens can at times be predictable in the sense that the waiting-time distribution between outbreaks is probabilistically bounded; The greater the spatial transmission the more periodic the outbreak dynamics. When we analyze the historical records of measles outbreaks in England and Wales between 1944 and 1965, we find the waiting-time between epidemics to depend inversely on community size. This is because large communities are much more tightly coupled to the regional metapopulation. The model further help identify the most important areas for spatial transmission. We conclude that the data on absence of these pathogens is the key to understanding spatial spread.     

A WINDOWS‐BASED GIS‐AGNPS INTERFACE1

ABSTRACT: ArcView Nonpoint Source Pollution Modeling (AVNPSM), an interface between ArcView GIS and AGNPS (Agricultural Nonpoint Source Pollution Model) is developed in support of agricultural watershed analysis and nonpoint source pollution management. The interface is PC‐based and operates in a Windows environment. It consists of seven modules: AGNPS utility, parameter generator, input file processor, model executor, output visualizer, statistical analyzer, and land use simulator. Basic input data to the interface include: soil, digital elevation model, land use/cover, water features, climate, and information on management practices. Application of the AVNPSM to a sample watershed indicates that it is user friendly, flexible, and robust, and it significantly improves the efficiency of the nonpoint source pollution modeling process.     

IMPLICATIONS OF FEEDBACK PROCESSES IN PLANT WATER USAGE AND RESULTING CLIMATE CHANGE1

ABSTRACT: Increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has the secondary effect on plants of reducing transpiration. The degree of reduction in transpiration has been studied mostly at the leaf scale and as such, has not taken feedbacks into account that come into play when the plant canopy or the atmosphere as a whole is considered. The objective of this paper is to examine the role of negative feedback processes that act through the dynamics of the canopy and the atmosphere. This is done through the application of two canopy models, one of which is later coupled to a full Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) called GENESIS. The results suggest that the reduction in transpiration in a double CO₂ environment compared to present day will not be as considerable as the leaf scale experiments suggest ‐ a 7 percent reduction compared to 15 to 57 percent when feedbacks are considered. At the regional scale, precipitation patterns appear to be the primary factor in determining evapotranspiration. The implications for agriculture, in terms of water usage, would therefore not seem to be as acute as the leaf scale experiments depict. Regarding climate change, there is a suggestion that regional water usage may vary from present day values in certain areas.     

Litter reductions reveal a trade-off between offspring size and number in brown bears

Experimental manipulations have revealed positive effects of litter reduction on offspring mass in small mammals, but little is known about this trade-off in large mammals. We examined the determinants of natural litter size variation and quantified the effects of litter size, maternal characteristics, and litter composition on yearling mass using 24?years of data on marked brown bears (Ursus arctos) in Sweden. Infanticide by adult males is a major cause of cub-of-the-year mortality, leading to litter size reductions. Litter size (n?=?265) at den emergence ranged from one to four cubs (average, 2.7) and increased with maternal age. Litter size, however, appeared independent of maternal size, population density, interlitter interval, study area, or previous litter sex ratio. Yearling body mass increased with maternal body size but was independent of litter sex ratio. Litter size and yearling mass were negatively correlated, mostly because singletons were about 30?% heavier than yearlings from litters of two to four cubs. In reduced litters, survivors were on average 8?% heavier as yearlings than individuals from intact litters, suggesting that sibling competition reduces growth. Trade-offs between litter size and yearling mass in bears appear similar in magnitude to those found in small mammals.     

Phylogeography of the marine interstitial nemertean <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ototyphlonemertes parmula</Emphasis> (Nemertea,Hoplonemertea) reveals cryptic diversity and high dispersal potential

We conducted a phylogeographic study of the meiofaunal nemertean Ototyphlonemertes parmula, an apparent species complex from the littoral zone of coarse-grained beaches, using a 494-bp fragment of the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase 3 gene (cox3). Six populations from the Gulf and Atlantic coasts of Florida, two from New England, and one from the Caribbean were sampled in March and August 2005. Three major lineages were identified, separated by cox3 sequence divergence of 16–18%, with partially overlapping ranges. Tests for hybridization using ISSR markers detected nuclear gene exchange within but not between the major mitochondrial lineages, indicating the presence of cryptic species. One lineage dominating the Atlantic coast of Florida shows no evidence of geographic structuring. Another lineage shows a phylogenetic break between the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, suggesting that unsuitable habitat may act as a barrier to dispersal. Long-distance migration is evidenced by shared haplotypes between Florida and the eastern Caribbean. Overall, the widespread distribution of individual haplotypes and lack of structuring within geographic regions contrast with O. parmula’s strongly sediment-bound lifestyle. We speculate that dispersal of adults by storms and/or sediment transport may be more important than few and potentially short-lived planktonic larvae to explain geographic diversity in O. parmula and may be important for meiofauna in general.     

Wildlife corridors as a connected subgraph problem

Wildlife corridors connect areas of biological significance to mitigate the negative ecological impacts of habitat fragmentation. In this article we formalize the optimal corridor design as a connected subgraph problem, which maximizes the amount of suitable habitat in a fully connected parcel network linking core habitat areas, subject to a constraint on the funds available for land acquisition. To solve this challenging computational problem, we propose a hybrid approach that combines graph algorithms with Mixed Integer Programming-based optimization. We apply this technique to the design of corridors for grizzly bears in the U.S. Northern Rockies, illustrating the underlying computational complexities by varying the granularity of the parcels available for acquisition. The approach that is introduced is general and can be applied to other species or other similar problems, such as those occurring in social networks.     

Influence of emergence success on the annual reproductive output of leatherback turtles

Reproductive output of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) is affected by the stochastic nature of emergence success. Average emergence success of nests at Playa Grande, Costa Rica was 0.38 ± 0.27. Incubation temperature affected development of leatherback turtle eggs and emergence of hatchlings from the nest. We found that high temperatures reduced hatching success and emergence rate and increased embryonic mortality both early and late during incubation at Playa Grande. There was a temporal effect on emergence success that resulted in more hatchlings being produced at the beginning of the season, because of higher emergence success, than toward the end. Likewise, production of hatchlings varied from year to year. The average annual reproductive output was 252 ± 141 hatchlings per female. The 2005–2006 nesting season had the highest emergence success and produced the greatest number of hatchlings per female compared to the 2004–2005 (+120%) and 2006–2007 (+41%) seasons. However, average clutch size (62 ± 10) and clutch frequency (9.45 ± 1.63), were not different among years. Turtles that had nested a high number of years exhibited greater clutch frequency and arrived earlier to nest than turtles that had nested in fewer numbers of years. Nesting when environmental conditions favor high developmental success and emergence rate may constitute an advantageous reproductive strategy.     

Assessment of the environmental contamination with long-lived radionuclides around an operating RBMK reactor station

The presence of man-made gamma emitting radionuclides in the region within 32km radius of the Ignalina NPP/Lithuania has been investigated during the period 2001-2004, prior to the closure of the first of the two operating RBMK 1500-type reactors. Gamma spectrometric measurements of various terrestrial and aquatic plants as well as of soil samples showed moderate environmental contamination with the fission product (137)Cs and with the neutron activation products (60)Co and (54)Mn. Traces of the activation products (65)Zn and (110m)Ag were found in the nearest vicinity of the NPP. Activity concentrations were inhomogeneously distributed in the area of interest. Moss and algae samples showed the highest uptake of radionuclides. In addition to the gamma spectrometric measurements, the levels of (14)C were determined in the same bio-indicator samples using accelerator mass spectrometry.