A global ecological signal of extinction risk in terrestrial vertebrates

To determine the distribution and causes of extinction threat across functional groups of terrestrial vertebrates, we assembled an ecological trait data set for 18,016 species of terrestrial vertebrates and utilized phylogenetic comparative methods to test which categories of habitat association, mode of locomotion, and feeding mode best predicted extinction risk. We also examined the individual categories of the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List extinction drivers (e.g., agriculture and logging) threatening each species and determined the greatest threats for each of the four terrestrial vertebrate groups. We then quantified the sum of extinction drivers threatening each species to provide a multistressor perspective on threat. Cave dwelling amphibians (p < 0.01), arboreal quadrupedal mammals (all of which are primates) (p < 0.01), aerial and scavenging birds (p < 0.01), and pedal (i.e., walking) squamates (p < 0.01) were all disproportionately threatened with extinction in comparison with the other assessed ecological traits. Across all threatened vertebrate species in the study, the most common risk factors were agriculture, threatening 4491 species, followed by logging, threatening 3187 species, and then invasive species and disease, threatening 2053 species. Species at higher risk of extinction were simultaneously at risk from a greater number of threat types. If left unabated, the disproportionate loss of species with certain functional traits and increasing anthropogenic pressures are likely to disrupt ecosystem functions globally. A shift in focus from species- to trait-centric conservation practices will allow for protection of at-risk functional diversity from regional to global scales.     

Desire to Bargain and Negotiation Success: Lessons About the Need to Negotiate from Six Hydropower Disputes

/ We investigated the notion that successful negotiations require that all parties to the dispute must have a desire to bargain. This desire is most likely to be present when the dispute exhibits ripeness and each party believes a bargained solution is the most cost-effective way to resolve differences. Structured interviews of participants in six Federal Energy Regulatory Commission hydropower licensing consultations were conducted to determine the level of need to negotiate for each party. The findings indicate that a need to negotiate is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for success. Several factors were associated with a need to negotiate: a weak BATNA (best alternative to a negotiated agreement); a salient issue; participants' sense of efficacy; a sense of inevitability; professional roles encouraging negotiation; and disputes about facts as opposed to disputes about values. Participants' need to negotiate fluctuated throughout the process and intensified when questions were ripe: i.e., critical issues were debated or the regulatory process required action.KEY WORDS: Alternative dispute resolution; Federal licenses; Federal Energy Regulatory Commission; Instream flow; Environmental planning     

A critique of statistical aspects of ecological studies in spatial epidemiology

In this article, the mathematical assumptions of a number of commonly used ecological regression models are made explicit, critically assessed, and related to ecological bias. In particular, the role and interpretation of random effects models are examined. The modeling of spatial variability is considered and related to an underlying continuous spatial field. The examination of such a field with respect to the modeling of risk in relation to a point source highlights an inconsistency in commonly used approaches. A theme of the paper is to examine how plausible individual-level models relate to those used in practice at the aggregate level. The individual-level models acknowledge confounding, within-area variability in exposures and confounders, measurement error and data anomalies and so we can examine how the area-level versions consider these aspects. We briefly discuss designs that efficiently sample individual data and would appear to be useful in environmental settings.     

Prenatal diagnosis of mosaic tetrasomy 5p

We report the prenatal diagnosis of a fetus with tetrasomy 5p mosaicism resulting from a supernumerary isochromosome for the short arm of chromosome 5. The pregnancy was terminated and fetal autopsy revealed minor facial abnormalities (long philtrum, up-slanting palpebral fissures and a broad nasal bridge). Cultures were established from fetal skin, kidney, and pancreas for cytogenetic analysis; the i(5p) was observed only in the skin fibroblasts. To our knowledge, this is the fourth report of mosaic tetrasomy 5p and the first report of prenatal diagnosis of this abnormality. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Revisiting old lessons from classic literature on persistent global pollutants: This article belongs to Ambio’s 50th Anniversary Collection. Theme: Environmental contaminants

Looking back 50 years at classic literature was a reminder of inspiring discoveries and clever theories that were formative to the field of environmental chemistry, but also of the irreparable costs that persistent global pollutants have had on ecosystems and human society. In my view, these three papers have greatly impacted contemporary science and influenced development of policies that have limited the spread of hazardous contaminants. At the same time, a sobering reality is that reversing decades of past pollution has proven impossible in our lifetime, and global trends are dire for both legacy and emerging contaminants. Lessons in these papers are clear to most environmental scientists, but I argue have not resulted in adequate investment in infrastructure or manpower to enable systematic unbiased searching for pollutants as proposed by Sören Jensen in 1972. Acknowledging that the costs of new global contaminants will be too high, we must incentivize safer chemicals and their sustainable use, increase international exchange of lists of chemicals in commerce, and coordinate international efforts in nontarget screening to identify new contaminants before they circulate the world.     

Population genetic variation in the New Zealand greenshell mussel: locus-dependent conflicting signals of weak structure and high gene flow balanced against pronounced structure and high self-recruitment

A pronounced north–south multitaxon genetic discontinuity occurs in central New Zealand (NZ). Polymorphic microsatellite markers have been used to test the location and structure of this discontinuity in the endemic greenshell mussel, Perna canaliculus. Nine neutral loci revealed limited evidence of genetic structure, but one outlier locus (Pcan1-27) which may be under selection provided evidence of the discontinuity in central NZ. Whilst the limited multilocus evidence of structure is assumed to result from high levels of gene flow among populations of this continuously distributed species, assignment tests indicated high to very high mean levels of self-recruitment within the 14 populations and the north and south regions. The nine neutral loci were unable to provide further clarification as to the geographic location of the discontinuity, whereas the Pcan1-27 locus was particularly informative. These results highlight a tension between limited evidence of genetic structure and presumptive high gene flow among populations versus high levels of self-recruitment and pronounced structure depending on microsatellite loci and analyses in question. Evidence from all 10 loci indicates that the genetic discontinuity is maintained by high levels of self-recruitment, and evidence from Pcan1-27 suggests that selection may also be important in explaining the existence of the discontinuity.     

An analysis of continuous black carbon concentrations in proximity to an airport and major roadways

Black carbon (BC), a constituent of particulate matter, is emitted from multiple combustion sources, complicating determination of contributions from individual sources or source categories from monitoring data. In close proximity to an airport, this may include aircraft emissions, other emissions on the airport grounds, and nearby major roadways, and it would be valuable to determine the factors most strongly related to measured BC concentrations. In this study, continuous BC concentrations were measured at five monitoring sites in proximity to a small regional airport in Warwick, Rhode Island from July 2005 to August 2006. Regression was used to model the relative contributions of aircraft and related sources, using real-time flight activity (departures and arrivals) and meteorological data, including mixing height, wind speed and direction. The latter two were included as a nonparametric smooth spatial term using thin-plate splines applied to wind velocity vectors and fit in a linear mixed model framework. Standard errors were computed using a moving-block bootstrap to account for temporal autocorrelation. Results suggest significant positive associations between hourly departures and arrivals at the airport and BC concentrations within the community, with departures having a more substantial impact. Generalized Additive Models for wind speed and direction were consistent with significant contributions from the airport, major highway, and multiple local roads. Additionally, inverse mixing height, temperature, precipitation, and at one location relative humidity, were associated with BC concentrations. Median contribution estimates indicate that aircraft departures and arrivals (and other sources coincident in space and time) contribute to approximately 24–28% of the BC concentrations at the monitoring sites in the community. Our analysis demonstrated that a regression-based approach with detailed meteorological and source characterization can provide insights about source contributions, which could be used to devise control strategies or to provide monitor-based comparisons with source-specific atmospheric dispersion models.