Evaluating greenhouse gas emissions inventories for agricultural burning using satellite observations of active fires

Fires in agricultural ecosystems emit greenhouse gases and aerosols that influence climate on multiple spatial and temporal scales. Annex 1 countries of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), many of which ratified the Kyoto Protocol, are required to report emissions of CH4 and N2O from these fires annually. In this study, we evaluated several aspects of this reporting system, including the optimality of the crops targeted by the UNFCCC globally and within Annex 1 countries, and the consistency of emissions inventories among different countries. We also evaluated the success of individual countries in capturing interannual variability and long-term trends in agricultural fire activity. In our approach, we combined global high-resolution maps of crop harvest area and production, derived from satellite maps and ground-based census data, with Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) measurements of active fires. At a global scale, we found that adding ground nuts (e.g., peanuts), cocoa, cotton and oil palm, and removing potato, oats, rye, and pulse other from the list of 14 crops targeted by the UNFCCC increased the percentage of active fires covered by the reporting system by 9%. Optimization led to a different recommended list for Annex 1 countries, requiring the addition of sunflower, cotton, rapeseed, and alfalfa and the removal of beans, sugarcane, pulse others, and tuber-root others. Extending emissions reporting to all Annex 1 countries (from the current set of 19 countries) would increase the efficacy of the reporting system from 6% to 15%, and further including several non-Annex 1 countries (Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Kazakhstan, Mexico, and Nigeria) would capture over 55% of active fires in croplands worldwide. Analyses of interannual trends from the United States and Australia showed the importance of both intensity of fire use and crop production in controlling year-to-year variations in agricultural fire emissions. Remote sensing provides an effective means for evaluating some aspects of the current UNFCCC emissions reporting system; and, if combined with census data, field experiments and expert opinion, has the potential to improve the robustness of the next generation inventory system.     

Widespread contribution of methane-cycle bacteria to the diets of lake profundal chironomid larvae

Reports of unexpectedly 13C-depleted chironomid larvae in lakes have led to an hypothesis that significant transfer of detrital organic matter to chironomid larvae may occur via methane-cycle bacteria. However, to date little is known of how such transfer might vary across species and lakes. We gathered data from 87 lakes to determine how widespread this phenomenon might be and to define boundaries for its likely magnitude. Carbon stable isotope values of chironomid larvae varied greatly between taxa. Very marked 13C-depletion was evident only in certain taxa, especially Chironomus plumosus, C. anthracinus, and C. tenuistylus, all characteristic of eutrophic or dystrophic lakes and known to be tolerant of low oxygen conditions. Furthermore, marked 13C-depletion was only found in larvae from lakes in which late-summer hypolimnetic oxygen depletion near the sediment surface was below an apparent threshold concentration of 2-4 mg O2/L. Similarly, application of a two-source mixing model suggested that methanotrophic bacteria made the greatest contribution to profundal chironomid growth (0-70% of larval carbon) when the late-summer oxygen concentration dropped below approximately 2 mg O2/L. Our study demonstrates that methane-derived carbon is an important, but often neglected, contribution to the flux of carbon through the food webs of many productive or dystrophic lakes.     

Revisiting the classics: considering nonconsumptive effects in textbook examples of predator-prey interactions

Predator effects on prey dynamics are conventionally studied by measuring changes in prey abundance attributed to consumption by predators. We revisit four classic examples of predator-prey systems often cited in textbooks and incorporate subsequent studies of nonconsumptive effects of predators (NCE), defined as changes in prey traits (e.g., behavior, growth, development) measured on an ecological time scale. Our review revealed that NCE were integral to explaining lynx-hare population dynamics in boreal forests, cascading effects of top predators in Wisconsin lakes, and cascading effects of killer whales and sea otters on kelp forests in nearshore marine habitats. The relative roles of consumption and NCE of wolves on moose and consequent indirect effects on plant communities of Isle Royale depended on climate oscillations. Nonconsumptive effects have not been explicitly tested to explain the link between planktonic alewives and the size structure of the zooplankton, nor have they been invoked to attribute keystone predator status in intertidal communities or elsewhere. We argue that both consumption and intimidation contribute to the total effects of keystone predators, and that characteristics of keystone consumers may differ from those of predators having predominantly NCE. Nonconsumptive effects are often considered as an afterthought to explain observations inconsistent with consumption-based theory. Consequently, NCE with the same sign as consumptive effects may be overlooked, even though they can affect the magnitude, rate, or scale of a prey response to predation and can have important management or conservation implications. Nonconsumptive effects may underlie other classic paradigms in ecology, such as delayed density dependence and predator-mediated prey coexistence. Revisiting classic studies enriches our understanding of predator-prey dynamics and provides compelling rationale for ramping up efforts to consider how NCE affect traditional predator-prey models based on consumption, and to compare the relative magnitude of consumptive and NCE of predators.     

Palaeotempestology: the study of prehistoric tropical cyclones--a review and implications for hazard assessment

Records of prehistoric tropical cyclones occur in the form of ridges of coral rubble, sand, shell, sand and shell, and pumice; erosional terraces in raised gravel beaches; barrier washover deposits; and, sediments deposited in the shallow offshore marine environment. Other less well-documented records occur as variations in isotopic ratios within speleothems and possibly tree rings, and changes in pollen records resulting from introduction of new species after forest disturbance due to cyclonic winds. As yet, such records have not been identified beyond 5500 years of age. Recent palaeotempestological studies in the United States and northern Australia have highlighted that the frequency and magnitude of these natural hazards do not remain constant over time, and there are periods when cyclogenesis is enhanced, and others of relative quiescence. Recognition of such regime changes, or non-stationarity in the long-term record, is important for risk assessments of this hazard. Until now however, few if any risk assessments have incorporated data from the long-term record of tropical cyclones, and instead have relied on generally short instrumented historical records. The longer-term records suggest that such an approach may miscalculate the 1% Annual Exceedance Probability risk to coastal communities from future tropical cyclones.     

Measuring the Net Economic Value of Recreational Boating as Water Levels Fluctuate1

Abstract: The purpose of this article was to show how the value of recreational boating can be assessed and how that value can be linked to water levels. Data were gathered via a survey of recreational boaters to determine days boated and willingness‐to‐pay (net economic value) for boating on Lake Ontario and on the St. Lawrence River in 2002. Depth measurements were taken at marinas and yacht clubs, boat launch ramps, and private docks. Stage‐damage curves were used to pinpoint at what water levels and to what extent boaters would be impacted. Boaters recreated an estimated 1.3 million days in 2002 and spent an estimated US$178 million in New York counties bordering Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River. The mean net economic value per day per boat (above current expenditures) was $69.36, with an estimated total net economic value of US$90 million. Using Lake Ontario as an example, the stage‐damage curves show that the overall negative impact would be small, between 245 and 248 ft. Maintaining water levels within that range for the entire boating season would be ideal for Lake Ontario boaters and associated businesses.     

Job control and occupational health: the moderating role of national R&D activity

Workers (n = 17 275) from 14 European Union (EU) member states provided data on job control, job dissatisfaction, perceived risk of occupational stress, and absence. For each state, level of research and development (R&D) activity was assessed. Associations between individual levels of control and occupational health were stronger where national R&D activity was higher. The moderation occurred for individuals' levels of control in relation to job dissatisfaction, perceived risk of occupational stress, and absence. The findings with job dissatisfaction and absence were replicated in a sample of workers from 10 Eastern European former Communist countries (n = 7926). Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seaborne petrochemical spill analysis within the United States, 1992-1999

Through discussion of causative factors and examination of historical data, petrochemical spill prevention in US waters is reviewed. Unintentional petrochemical outflow is analyzed in a comprehensive manner and presented as a hierarchical sequence of antecedent events to reveal the trends of causative factors leading to release. Specifically, a seaborne petrochemical spill is examined in terms of four basic, antecedent events: (1) an underway source, (2) a failure incident, (3) a marine accident capable of breaching the hull and cargo block, and (4) the onset of outflow. These events are further subdivided into underlying, contributing events to form a causative framework for spill prevention. While a hierarchical review is not necessary to uncover the elements of causation, it does provide a comprehensive and logical structure that clearly defines these elements in terms of occurrence frequency and contribution to resulting outflow. It is found that relatively small, frequent spills less than 40,000 liters (10,567 gallons), attributable to human operator failures, leading to grounding, and cargo transfer system failure accidents, dominate US seaborne petrochemical outflow from 1992 to 1999. Given the frequency of groundings, structural reinforcement regulations such as those contained in the Oil Pollution Act of 1990 (requiring double hulls) appear well justified. However, passive restraint systems are secondary to the need for vigilant training and licensing of tank vessel operators.