基于响应面模型的区域大气污染控制辅助决策工具研发

基于CMAQ模型结果,利用高维克里金插值算法,建立了排放控制因子与污染物环境浓度的响应面模型(RSM),实现了大气污染可控源排放与复合污染水平的实时函数响应.研究结果显示,RSM对PM2.5的预测结果与CMAQ实际模拟结果的误差在容许范围内(最大误差小于0.20μg.m-3,3.89%).基于所建立的RSM,开发了RSM-VAT区域大气污染控制可视化辅助决策工具.使用RSM-VAT对美国8个典型城市的PM2.5污染状况进行了控制情景分析,通过"可视化展示"和"图表分析"二大模块,输出不同控制情景下的环境污染物浓度的实时响应图、可视化展示和数据分析图表等结果.     

Design and demonstration of a next-generation air quality attainment assessment system for PM2.5 and O3

Due to the increasingly stringent standards, it is important to assess whether the proposed emission reduction will result in ambient concentrations that meet the standards. The Software for Model Attainment Test—Community Edition (SMAT-CE) is developed for demonstrating attainment of air quality standards of O₃ and PM_2.5. SMAT-CE improves computational efficiency and provides a number of advanced visualization and analytical functionalities on an integrated GIS platform. SMAT-CE incorporates historical measurements of air quality parameters and simulated air pollutant concentrations under a number of emission inventory scenarios to project the level of compliance to air quality standards in a targeted future year. An application case study of the software based on the U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) shows that SMAT-CE is capable of demonstrating the air quality attainment of annual PM_2.5 and 8-hour O₃ for a proposed emission control policy.     

空气污染与健康效益评估工具BenMAP CE研发

为了评估空气污染带来的健康冲击、评估健康效益,克服现有评估工具(BenMAP V4.0)计算速度缓慢及用户体验较差等问题,受美国环保署委托,设计并研发了新一代空气污染与健康效益评估工具BenMAP CE,搭建了BenMAP CE的框架,进行了详细功能设计,并利用美国环保署提供的数据进行了实测.测试结果表明,基于相同的输入文件和设置,BenMAP CE能重现BenMAP V4.0的计算结果,相比现有的评估工具,BenMAP CE具有良好的用户体验、强大的GIS展示功能及大幅提高的计算速度.BenMAP CE是考虑了污染物环境浓度削减、人口密度、收入差异等经济因素的综合性评估工具,能为决策者评估空气污染控制措施所带来的健康效益提供辅助决策依据.     

长江三角洲地区大气O3和PM10的区域污染特征模拟

以TRACE-P污染源资料及上海市地方排放清单为基础,采用Models-3/CMAQ环境空气质量模型和中尺度气象模式MM5,模拟研究了2001-01和2001-07长三角近地面二次污染物O₃及PM₁₀的浓度分布及输送状况,并以上海市国控点2001年冬、夏季各10 d的小时监测数据对模型进行了验证.验证结果显示,Models-3/CMAQ对O₃和PM₁₀的模拟结果与监测值的相关系数分别为0.77和0.52;一致性指数分别达到0.81和0.99.模型对O₃小时最高浓度的估算偏低27%,标准偏差为-3.1%;对PM₁₀小时平均浓度的估算偏低10%,标准偏差为46%.模型已具备再现和模拟长三角大气污染输送过程的能力,且误差落在可接受的范围之内.模拟结果显示,2001-07长三角区域16个主要城市中,有14个城市O₃小时最大浓度超过国家二级标准,高浓度O₃可覆盖苏南和浙北广大区域.2001-01泰州、扬州、南京、镇江、常州等城市受本地排放源和北部大气污染输送的影响显著,大气PM₁₀日均浓度超过PM₁₀国家二级标准.长三角地区环境空气质量与污染类型受大气污染传输与化学转化的影响十分明显.夏季太阳辐射较强时,南部城市排放的污染物常以二次污染物的形式影响下风向城市;太阳辐射较弱的情况下,则以一次污染物输送为主的形式影响周边地区.冬季长三角区域颗粒物污染总体水平较高,这与我国北方地区排放的颗粒物在西北风作用下向长三角输送造成的影响密切相关.长三角地区的大气污染已逐渐从局地转为区域问题.     

Divergence in sink contributions to population persistence

Population sinks present unique conservation challenges. The loss of individuals in sinks can compromise persistence; but conversely, sinks can improve viability by improving connectivity and facilitating the recolonization of vacant sources. To assess the contribution of sinks to regional population persistence of declining populations, we simulated source–sink dynamics for 3 very different endangered species: Black‐capped Vireos (Vireo atricapilla) at Fort Hood, Texas, Ord's kangaroo rats (Dipodomys ordii) in Alberta, and Northern Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) in the northwestern United States. We used empirical data from these case studies to parameterize spatially explicit individual‐based models. We then used the models to quantify population abundance and persistence with and without long‐term sinks. The contributions of sink habitats varied widely. Sinks were detrimental, particularly when they functioned as strong sinks with few emigrants in declining populations (e.g., Alberta's Ord's kangaroo rat) and benign in robust populations (e.g., Black‐capped Vireos) when Brown‐headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater) parasitism was controlled. Sinks, including ecological traps, were also crucial in delaying declines when there were few sources (e.g., in Black‐capped Vireo populations with no Cowbird control). Sink contributions were also nuanced. For example, sinks that supported large, variable populations were subject to greater extinction risk (e.g., Northern Spotted Owls). In each of our case studies, new context‐dependent sinks emerged, underscoring the dynamic nature of sources and sinks and the need for frequent re‐assessment. Our results imply that management actions based on assumptions that sink habitats are generally harmful or helpful risk undermining conservation efforts for declining populations.     

First-trimester prenatal diagnosis of osteogenesis imperfecta type II by DNA analysis and sonography

Osteogenesis imperfecta type II was diagnosed prenatally by analysis of DNA obtained from chorionic villus sampling (CVS) performed at 12 weeks of gestation in a woman who previously had had an affected child. The father had been shown to be mosaic for a mutation in the gene (COL1A2) which encodes the α2(I) chain of type I collagen. An affected fetus was predicted by detection of the mutation in amplified chorionic villus genomic DNA. Ultrasound examination at 13 weeks 4 days demonstrated femoral deformity and virtual absence of calvarial mineralization. In pregnancies at risk for osteogenesis imperfecta type II, sonographic evidence of skeletal abnormalities may be evident by 13 weeks' gestation.     

Building phenological models from presence/absence data for a butterfly fauna.

Species phenology is increasingly being used to explore the effects of climate change and other environmental stressors. Long-term monitoring data sets are essential for understanding both patterns manifest by individual species and more complex patterns evident at the community level. This study used records of 78 butterfly species observed on 626 days across 27 years at a site in northern California, USA, to build quadratic logistic regression models of the observation probability of each species for each day of the year. Daily species probabilities were summed to develop a potential aggregate species richness (PASR) model, indicating expected daily species richness. Daily positive and negative contributions to PASR were calculated, which can be used to target optimum sampling time frames. Residuals to PASR indicate a rate of decline of 0.12 species per year over the course of the study. When PASR was calculated for wet and dry years, wet years were found to delay group phenology by up to 17 days and reduce the maximum annual expected species from 32.36 to 30. Three tests to determine how well the PASR model reflected the butterfly fauna dynamics were all positive: We correlated probabilities developed with species presence/absence data to observed abundance by species, tested species' predicted phenological patterns against known biological characteristics, and compared the PASR curve to a spline-fitted curve calculated from the original species richness observations. Modeling individual species' flight windows was possible from presence/absence data, an approach that could be used on other similar records for butterfly communities with seasonal phenologies, and for common species with far fewer dates than used here. It also provided a method to assess sample frequency guidelines for other butterfly monitoring programs.     

The use of Monte Carlo simulation techniques to predict population blood lead levels

Effective management of the risks posed by lead depends on an understanding of the relationship between exposure (the presence and accessibility of lead in the environment) and dose (blood lead levels). Our paper begins by outlining the type of information most valuable to a decision maker addressing the lead problem. A useful exposure-dose characterisation must address multiple contamination sources simultaneously, provide estimates of the number of people with blood lead levels exceeding critical thresholds, and assess the influence of modifying factors (e.g. the soil and dust ingestion rate) on population blood lead variability. We describe a pilot effort to develop an urban setting lead exposure-dose model, and use this model to compare three approaches for generating model input quantities: (1) worst-case estimates, (2) central estimates and (3) Monte Carlo simulation. Using the criteria outlined above, we find that the Monte Carlo technique provides the most useful model output. We describe the population blood lead level distribution generated by the model, as well as the relative influence of environmental and behavioural factors on the variability of the population distribution. Finally, we assess the impact of parameter uncertainty on the model output, and contend this type of information can help identify areas in which further empirical study would be most valuable.     

Evaluating the causal basis of ecological success within the scleractinia: an integral projection model approach

Many tropical corals have declined in abundance in the last few decades, and evaluating the causal basis of these losses is critical to understanding how coral reefs will change in response to ongoing environmental challenges. Motivated by the likelihood that marine environments will become increasingly unfavorable for coral growth as they warm and become more acidic (i.e., ocean acidification), it is reasonable to evaluate whether specific phenotypic traits of the coral holobiont are associated with ecological success (or failure) under varying environmental conditions including those that are adverse to survival. Initially, we asked whether it was possible to identify corals that are resistant or sensitive to such conditions by compiling quantitative measures of their phenotypic traits determined through empirical studies, but we found only weak phenotypic discrimination between ecological winners and losers, or among taxa. To reconcile this outcome with ecological evidence demonstrating that coral taxa are functionally unequal, we looked beyond the notion that phenotypic homogeneity arose through limitations of empirical data. Instead, we examined the validity of contemporary means of categorizing corals based on ecological success. As an alternative means to distinguish among functional groups of corals, we present a demographic approach using integral projection models (IPMs) that link organismal performance to demographic outcomes, such as the rates of population growth and responses to environmental stress. We describe how IPMs can be applied to corals so that future research can evaluate within a quantitative framework the extent to which changes in physiological performance influence the demographic underpinnings of ecological performance.