Comparison of the MOVES2010a,MOBILE6.2, and EMFAC2007 mobile source emission models with on-road traffic tunnel and remote sensing measurements

The Desert Research Institute conducted an on-road mobile source emission study at a traffic tunnel in Van Nuys, California, in August 2010 to measure fleet-averaged, fuel-based emission factors. The study also included remote sensing device (RSD) measurements by the University of Denver of 13,000 vehicles near the tunnel. The tunnel and RSD fleet-averaged emission factors were compared in blind fashion with the corresponding modeled factors calculated by ENVIRON International Corporation using U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) MOVES2010a (Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator) and MOBILE6.2 mobile source emission models, and California Air Resources Board's (CARB's) EMFAC2007 (EMission FACtors) emission model. With some exceptions, the fleet-averaged tunnel, RSD, and modeled carbon monoxide (CO) and oxide of nitrogen (NO_x) emission factors were in reasonable agreement (±25%). The nonmethane hydrocarbon (NMHC) emission factors (specifically the running evaporative emissions) predicted by MOVES were insensitive to ambient temperature as compared with the tunnel measurements and the MOBILE- and EMFAC-predicted emission factors, resulting in underestimation of the measured NMHC/NO_x ratios at higher ambient temperatures. Although predicted NMHC/NO_x ratios are in good agreement with the measured ratios during cooler sampling periods, the measured NMHC/NO_x ratios are 3.1, 1.7, and 1.4 times higher than those predicted by the MOVES, MOBILE, and EMFAC models, respectively, during high-temperature periods. Although the MOVES NO_x emission factors were generally higher than the measured factors, most differences were not significant considering the variations in the modeled factors using alternative vehicle operating cycles to represent the driving conditions in the tunnel. The three models predicted large differences in NO_x and particle emissions and in the relative contributions of diesel and gasoline vehicles to total NO_x and particulate carbon (TC) emissions in the tunnel.

Implications: Although advances have been made to mobile source emission models over the past two decades, the evidence that mobile source emissions of carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons in urban areas were underestimated by as much as a factor of 2–3 in past inventories underscores the need for on-going verification of emission inventories. Results suggest that there is an overall increase in motor vehicle NMHC emissions on hot days that is not fully accounted for by the emission models. Hot temperatures and concomitant higher ratios of NMHC emissions relative to NO_x both contribute to more rapid and efficient formation of ozone. Also, the ability of EPA's MOVES model to simulate varying vehicle operating modes places increased importance on the choice of operating modes to evaluate project-level emissions.     

Ammonium Nitrate,Nitric Acid,and Ammonia Equilibrium in Wintertime Phoenix,Arizona

A secondary aerosol equilibrium model, SEQUILIB, is applied to evaluate the effects of emissions reductions from precursor species on ambient concentrations during the winter in Phoenix, Arizona. The model partitions total nitrate and total ammonia to gas-phase nitric acid and ammonia and to particle-phase ammonium nitrate. Agreement between these partitions and ambient measures of these species was found to be satisfactory. Equilibrium isopleths were generated for various ammonium nitrate concentrations corresponding to high and low humidity periods which occurred during sampling. These diagrams show that ammonia is so abundant in Phoenix that massive reductions in its ambient concentrations would be needed before significant reductions in particulate ammonium nitrate would be observed. When total nitrate is reduced by reductions in its nitrogen oxides precursor, proportional reductions in particulate nitrate are expected. Many of the complex reactions in SEQUILIB do not apply to Phoenix, and its ability to reproduce ambient data in this study does not guarantee that it will be as effective in areas with more complex chemistry. Nevertheless, the nitrate chemistry in SEQUILIB appears to be sound, and it is a useful model for addressing the difficult apportionment of secondary aerosol to its precursors.     

Stratospheric ozone,global warming,and the principle of unintended consequences—An ongoing science and policy story

Supplemental Materials: Supplemental materials are available for this paper. Go to the publisher's online edition of the Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association.      

Filter light attenuation as a surrogate for elemental carbon

Light attenuation (b(att)) measured from filter light transmission is compared with elemental carbon (EC) measurements for more than 180,000 collocated PM2.5 (particulate matter [PM] < or = 2.5 microm in aerodynamic diameter) and PM10 (PM < or = 10 microm in aerodynamic diameter) samples from nearly 200 U.S. locations during the past 2 decades. Although there are theoretical reasons for expecting highly variable relationships between b(att) and EC (such as the effects of "brown carbon" and iron oxides in PM2.5), reasonable correlations are found. These correlations are not a strong function of season or location (e.g., rural vs. urban). Median EC concentrations can be predicted from filter transmittance measurements to within +/- 15-30%. Although EC predicted from b(att) shows larger uncertainties (30-60%), especially at concentrations less than 0.3 microg/m3, the consistent mass absorption efficiency (sigm(att)) derived from the regression analysis demonstrates the feasibility of using b(att) as a surrogate for EC. This study demonstrates that a constant factor of 0.1 g/m2 (equivalent to the 10 m2/g sigma(att) used in the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments chemical extinction formula) can be used to estimate EC concentrations from b(att) through a Teflon-membrane filter sample. Greater accuracy is achieved with site-specific sigma(att) derived from a period with collocated EC measurements.     

Polybrominated diphenyl ether in sewage sludge in Germany

Sewage sludge samples from 11 municipal waste water treatment plants in Germany were collected from March 2002 to June 2003. Total Tri- to HpBDE concentrations (sum of significant congeners BDE 28, 47, 99, 153, 154 and 183) ranged from 12.5 to 288 (median 108) and DeBDE (BDE 209) concentrations from 97.1 to 2217 (median 256) ng/gd.m. BDE 209 dominated the congener profile. A significant change of the Tri- to HpBDE congener profile (% of total BDE 28, 47, 99, 153, 154, 183 without 209) in sludge from different stages of the waste water treatment process (primary sludge, secondary excess sludge and (dewatered) digested sludge), indicating a degradation of DeBDE to these congeners, was not observed.     

Evaluation of the thermal/optical reflectance method for quantification of elemental carbon in sediments

The IMPROVE thermal/optical reflectance (TOR) method, commonly used for EC quantification in atmospheric aerosols, is applied to soils and sediments and compared with a thermochemical method commonly applied to these non-atmospheric samples. TOR determines elemental carbon (EC) by an optical method, but it also yields thermally defined EC fractions in a 2% O2/98% He oxidizing atmosphere at 550 degrees C (EC1), 700 degrees C (EC2), and 800 degrees C (EC3). Replicate TOR TC, OC, and EC values exhibited precisions of approximately +/-10% as determined from multiple analyses of the same samples. EC abundances relative to total mass concentrations were within the ranges reported by other methods for diesel exhaust soot, n-hexane soot, wood and rice chars, and coals, as well as for environmental matrices. A direct comparison with the chemothermal (CTO) method of Gustafson et al. for ten soil and sediment samples demonstrated that almost all of the OC and EC1 are eliminated, as is part of the EC2. The CTO soot carbon is bounded by the EC3 and EC2+EC3 fractions of the IMPROVE TOR analysis. It might be possible to adjust these fractions to obtain better agreement between atmospheric aerosol and soil/sediment analysis methods. Given its linking the EC measurement in the atmosphere to sediments, the TOR method will not only provide useful information on the explanation and comparison between different environmental matrices, but also can be used to derive information on global cycling of EC.