A statistical model for predicting PM2.5 for the western United States

ABSTRACT

A new statistical model for predicting daily ground level fine scale particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentrations at monitoring sites in the western United States was developed and tested operationally during the 2016 and 2017 wildfire seasons. The model is site-specific, using a multiple linear regression schema that relies on the previous day’s PM_2.5 value, along with fire and smoke related variables from satellite observations. Fire variables include fire radiative power (FRP) and the National Fire Danger Rating System Energy Release Component index. Smoke variables, in addition to ground monitored PM_2.5, include aerosol optical depth (AOD) and smoke plume perimeters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Hazard Mapping System. The overall statistical model was inspired by a similar system developed for British Columbia (BC) by the BC Center for Disease Control, but it has been heavily modified and adapted to work in the United States. On average, our statistical model was able to explain 78% of the variance in daily ground level PM_2.5. A novel method for implementation of this model as an operational forecast system was also developed and was tested and used during the 2016 and 2017 wildfire seasons. This method focused on producing a continuously-updating prediction that incorporated the latest information available throughout the day, including both updated remote sensing data and real-time PM_2.5 observations. The diurnal pattern of performance of this model shows that even a few hours of data early in the morning can substantially improve model performance.

Implications: Wildfire smoke events produce significant air quality impacts across the western United States each year impacting millions. We present and evaluate a statistical model for making updating predictions of fine particulate (PM_2.5) levels during smoke events. These predictions run hourly and are being used by smoke incident specialists assigned to wildfire operations, and may be of interest to public health officials, air quality regulators, and the public. Predictions based on this model will be available on the web for the 2019 western U.S. wildfire season this summer.     

An Ecoregional Context for Forest Management on National Wildlife Refuges of the Upper Midwest,USA

To facilitate forest planning and management on National Wildlife Refuges, we synthesized multiple data sources to describe land ownership patterns, land cover, landscape pattern, and changes in forest composition for four ecoregions and their associated refuges of the Upper Midwest. We related observed patterns to ecological processes important for forest conservation and restoration, with specific attention to refuge patterns of importance for forest landbirds of conservation priority. The large amount of public land within the ecoregions (31–80%) suggests that opportunities exist for coarse and meso-scale approaches to conserving and restoring ecological processes affecting the refuges, particularly historical fire regimes. Forests dominate both ecoregions and refuges, but refuge forest patches are generally larger and more aggregated than in associated ecoregions. Broadleaf taxa have increased in dominance in the ecoregions and displaced fire-dependent taxa such as pine (Pinus spp.) and other coniferous species; these changes in forest composition have likely also affected refuge forests. Despite compositional changes, larger forest patches on refuges suggests that they may provide better habitat for area-sensitive forest landbirds of mature, compositionally diverse forests than surrounding lands if management continues to promote increased patch size. We reason that although fine-scale research and monitoring for species of conservation priority is important, broad scale (ecoregional) assessments provide crucial context for effective forest and wildlife management in protected areas.     

Precision placement of separated dairy sludge improves early phosphorus nutrition and growth in corn ( L.)

Efficient use of manure nutrients by crops is necessary to minimize losses to the environment. This field study examined the possibility of replacing side-banded mineral P with precision-placed high-P sludge (6.2-11.0% dry matter) obtained after settling dairy manure slurry. The sludge was injected at about 30 kg P ha (36.0-51.2 m ha) into the soil at corn row spacing, and the corn was planted 5, 10, and 15 cm beside the injection furrow. Controls included no added P and side-banded commercial P fertilizer. The treatments were tested on corn with low and high root colonization by arbuscular mycorrhizae (AM). The study showed that sludge did not impede AM root colonization, corn germination, or seedling growth. Corn plants with both high and low levels of AM colonization responded to the sludge from the three-leaf stage and showed the greatest benefit at the six-leaf stage. Corn responded more to sludge placed at 5 than at 15 cm from the corn rows, whereas the response at the 10-cm spacing was intermediate. There was little difference in seedling growth or final harvest parameters between the side-banded fertilizer P and the 5-cm sludge treatment. The results show a new way to use manure nutrients, namely precision-placement sludge for corn. This may obviate the need for chemical fertilizers for improving farm nutrient balances. Other anticipated benefits are less energy use for hauling and injection of the sludge fraction and reduced risk of nutrient loss by runoff and volatilization (ammonia) and nuisance odors due to injection.     

Influence of biochar on nitrogen fractions in a coastal plain soil

Interest in the use of biochar from pyrolysis of biomass to sequester C and improve soil productivity has increased; however, variability in physical and chemical characteristics raises concerns about effects on soil processes. Of particular concern is the effect of biochar on soil N dynamics. The effect of biochar on N dynamics was evaluated in a Norfolk loamy sand with and without NHNO. High-temperature (HT) (≥500°C) and low-temperature (LT) (≤400°C) biochars from peanut hull ( L.), pecan shell ( Wangenh. K. Koch), poultry litter (), and switchgrass ( L.) and a fast pyrolysis hardwood biochar (450-600°C) were evaluated. Changes in inorganic, mineralizable, resistant, and recalcitrant N fractions were determined after a 127-d incubation that included four leaching events. After 127 d, little evidence of increased inorganic N retention was found for any biochar treatments. The mineralizable N fraction did not increase, indicating that biochar addition did not stimulate microbial biomass. Decreases in the resistant N fraction were associated with the high pH and high ash biochars. Unidentified losses of N were observed with HT pecan shell, HT peanut hull, and HT and LT poultry litter biochars that had high pH and ash contents. Volatilization of N as NH in the presence of these biochars was confirmed in a separate short-term laboratory experiment. The observed responses to different biochars illustrate the need to characterize biochar quality and match it to soil type and land use.     

Conservation of Socioculturally Important Local Crop Biodiversity in the Oromia Region of Ethiopia: A Case Study

In this study, we surveyed diversity in a range of local crops in the Lume and Gimbichu districts of Ethiopia, together with the knowledge of local people regarding crop uses, socio-economic importance, conservation, management and existing threats. Data were collected using semistructured interviews and participant observation. The study identified 28 farmers' varieties of 12 crop species. Among these, wheat (Triticum turgidum) and tef (Eragrostis tef) have high intra-specific diversity, with 9 and 6 varieties respectively. Self-seed supply or seed saving was the main (80?%) source of seeds for replanting. Agronomic performance (yield and pest resistance), market demand, nutritional and use diversity attributes of the crop varieties were highlighted as important criteria for making decisions regarding planting and maintenance. Over 74?% of the informants grow a combination of "improved" and farmers' varieties. Of the farmers' varieties, the most obvious decline and/or loss was reported for wheat varieties. Introduction of improved wheat varieties, pest infestation, shortage of land, low yield performance and climate variability were identified as the principal factors contributing to this loss or decline. Appropriate interventions for future conservation and sustainable use of farmers' varieties were suggested.     

Relationships Between Nitrogen Transformation Rates and Gene Abundance in a Riparian Buffer Soil

Denitrification is a critical biogeochemical process that results in the conversion of nitrate to volatile products, and thus is a major route of nitrogen loss from terrestrial environments. Riparian buffers are an important management tool that is widely utilized to protect water from non-point source pollution. However, riparian buffers vary in their nitrate removal effectiveness, and thus there is a need for mechanistic studies to explore nitrate dynamics in buffer soils. The objectives of this study were to examine the influence of specific types of soluble organic matter on nitrate loss and nitrous oxide production rates, and to elucidate the relationships between these rates and the abundances of functional genes in a riparian buffer soil. Continuous-flow soil column experiments were performed to investigate the effect of three types of soluble organic matter (citric acid, alginic acid, and Suwannee River dissolved organic carbon) on rates of nitrate loss and nitrous oxide production. We found that nitrate loss rates increased as citric acid concentrations increased; however, rates of nitrate loss were weakly affected or not affected by the addition of the other types of organic matter. In all experiments, rates of nitrous oxide production mirrored nitrate loss rates. In addition, quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) was utilized to quantify the number of genes known to encode enzymes that catalyze nitrite reduction (i.e., nirS and nirK) in soil that was collected at the conclusion of column experiments. Nitrate loss and nitrous oxide production rates trended with copy numbers of both nir and 16s rDNA genes. The results suggest that low-molecular mass organic species are more effective at promoting nitrogen transformations than large biopolymers or humic substances, and also help to link genetic potential to chemical reactivity.     

Mixed-Grass Prairie Canopy Structure and Spectral Reflectance Vary with Topographic Position

Managers of the nearly 0.5 million ha of public lands in North and South Dakota, USA rely heavily on manual measurements of canopy height in autumn to ensure conservation of grassland structure for wildlife and forage for livestock. However, more comprehensive assessment of vegetation structure could be achieved for mixed-grass prairie by integrating field survey, topographic position (summit, mid and toeslope) and spectral reflectance data. Thus, we examined the variation of mixed-grass prairie structural attributes (canopy leaf area, standing crop mass, canopy height, nitrogen, and water content) and spectral vegetation indices (VIs) with variation in topographic position at the Grand River National Grassland (GRNG), South Dakota. We conducted the study on a 36,000-ha herbaceous area within the GRNG, where randomly selected plots (1?km² in size) were geolocated and included summit, mid and toeslope positions. We tested for effects of topographic position on measured vegetation attributes and VIs calculated from Landsat TM and Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) data collected in July 2010. Leaf area, standing crop mass, canopy height, nitrogen, and water content were lower at summits than at toeslopes. The simple ratio of Landsat Band 7/Band 1 (SR71) was the VI most highly correlated with canopy standing crop and height at plot and landscape scales. Results suggest field and remote sensing-based grassland assessment techniques could more comprehensively target low structure areas at minimal expense by layering modeled imagery over a landscape stratified into topographic position groups.     

Seawater Intrusion and Sustainable Yield of Basal Aquifers1

Liu, Clark C.K. and John J. Dai, 2012. Seawater Intrusion and Sustainable Yield of Basal Aquifers. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(5): 861‐870. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00659.x Abstract: Basal aquifers, in which freshwater floats on top of saltwater, are the major freshwater supply for the Hawaiian Islands, as well as many other coastal regions around the world. Under unexploited or natural conditions, freshwater and the underlying seawater are separated by a relatively sharp interface located below mean sea level at a depth of about 40 times the hydraulic head. With forced draft, the hydraulic head of a basal aquifer would decline and the sharp interface would move up. It is a serious problem of seawater intrusion as huge amounts of freshwater storage is replaced by saltwater. Also, with forced draft, the sharp interface is replaced by a transition zone in which the salinity increases downward from freshwater to saltwater. As pumping continues, the transition zone expands. The desirable source‐water salinity in Hawaii is about 2% of the seawater salinity. Therefore, the transition zone expansion is another serious problem of seawater intrusion. In this study, a robust analytical groundwater flow and salinity transport model (RAM2) was developed. RAM2 has a simple mathematical structure and its model parameters can be determined satisfactorily with the available field monitoring data. The usefulness of RAM2 as a viable management tool for coastal ground water management is demonstrated by applying it to determine the sustainable yield of the Pearl Harbor aquifer, a principal water supply source in Hawaii.     

Comparison of Stream Invertebrate Response Models for Bioassessment Metrics1

Waite, Ian R., Jonathan G. Kennen, Jason T. May, Larry R. Brown, Thomas F. Cuffney, Kimberly A. Jones, and James L. Orlando, 2012. Comparison of Stream Invertebrate Response Models for Bioassessment Metrics. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(3): 570-583. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00632.x Abstract: We aggregated invertebrate data from various sources to assemble data for modeling in two ecoregions in Oregon and one in California. Our goal was to compare the performance of models developed using multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques with models developed using three relatively new techniques: classification and regression trees (CART), random forest (RF), and boosted regression trees (BRT). We used tolerance of taxa based on richness (RICHTOL) and ratio of observed to expected taxa (O/E) as response variables and land use/land cover as explanatory variables. Responses were generally linear; therefore, there was little improvement to the MLR models when compared to models using CART and RF. In general, the four modeling techniques (MLR, CART, RF, and BRT) consistently selected the same primary explanatory variables for each region. However, results from the BRT models showed significant improvement over the MLR models for each region; increases in R² from 0.09 to 0.20. The O/E metric that was derived from models specifically calibrated for Oregon consistently had lower R² values than RICHTOL for the two regions tested. Modeled O/E R² values were between 0.06 and 0.10 lower for each of the four modeling methods applied in the Willamette Valley and were between 0.19 and 0.36 points lower for the Blue Mountains. As a result, BRT models may indeed represent a good alternative to MLR for modeling species distribution relative to environmental variables.