基于系统动力学模型的影剧院人员疏散策略

随着社会的发展,人们对生命的重视程度日益增强,大型公共场所临灾情况下人员疏散问题的研究也越来越有实际意义.分析以往影剧院火灾事故可以发现,不正确的疏散逃生行为所引起的通道堵塞,是导致人员大量伤亡的一个主要原因.根据系统动力学原理,应用STELLA系统软件,建立了基于粗网络模型的人员疏散模型.以影剧院发生火灾为例,分析了采取不同疏散策略所产生的避难效果差异,找出了最佳的疏散策略.所提研究方法和建立的模型,对于合理设计疏散路线和优化建筑物的出口与通道结构具有一定的实用价值.     

大型公共场所人员疏散模型研究--考虑个体特性和从众行为

在引入元胞自动机概念的基础上,模拟分析了紧急情况下人员的疏散行为,并提出了一个新的疏散模型.该模型考虑了人员的个体差异和从众行为,并重点分析了各种情况下从众行为对疏散行为和疏散时间的影响.结果表明,从众行为与疏散场所中的人员密度、视野范围大小等都有很大关系,一般而言,从众行为将延缓人员疏散的时间.     

爪哇海上体验防海盗

告别了美丽、宁静的弗里曼特尔港，“雪龙”号向着新加坡方向驶去。在印度洋上航行，风平浪静。虽然海面上气温很高，湿度也大，但有了现代化的中央空调，房间里很舒适。     

Unreliability of co‐occurrence‐based sediment quality guidelines for contaminated sediment evaluations at Superfund/hazardous chemical sites

Many Superfund/hazardous chemical sites include waterbodies whose sediments contain hazardous chemicals. With the need to assess, rank, and remediate contaminated sediments at such sites, as well as in other waterways, regulators seek a simple, quantitative assessment approach that feeds easily into a decision‐making scheme. Numeric, co‐occurrence‐based “sediment quality guidelines” have emerged with the appearance of administrative simplicity. However, the very foundation of the co‐occurrence approach, based on the total concentrations of a chemical(s) in sediment, is technically invalid; its application relies on additional technically invalid presumptions. Use of technically invalid evaluation approaches renders any assessment of the significance of sediment contamination unreliable. This article reviews the technical roots and assumptions of the co‐occurrence‐based SQGs, the fundamental flaws in the rationale behind their development and application, and their misapplication for sediment quality evaluation. It also reviews concepts and approaches for the more reliable evaluation, ranking, and cleanup assessment of contaminated sediments at Superfund sites and elsewhere. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Disposal of contaminated sediments/soils in MSW landfills: Need to consider the true cost

A disturbing trend among governmental agencies is the remediation of so‐called “nonhazardous” contaminated sediments/soils by deposition in minimum‐design Subtitle D municipal solid waste (MSW) landfills or landfills with equivalent design. This is done despite the fact that, in terms of protection of public health and environmental quality, the designation “nonhazardous” is misleading at best, and the fact that minimum‐design Subtitle D landfills as being allowed will not ensure protection of groundwater quality for as long as the buried wastes remain a threat. Although acknowledged in the regulatory documentation and exposed in the writings of a few in the scientific/engineering community, the environmental and public health issues that will inevitably be faced at minimum‐design Subtitle D landfills are underplayed, and even misrepresented, to the public. Discussion of relevant issues, as well as remarkable omissions, characterized the October 2004 United States Army Corps of Engineers (US ACE)/United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA)/Sediment Management Work Group (SMWG) conference,” Addressing Uncertainty and Managing Risk at Contaminated Sediment Sites.” This article addresses many of those neglected issues. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Impact of chemical leaching on permeability and cadmium removal from fine-grained soils

The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of chemical leaching on permeability and Cd removal from fine-grained polluted soils. Column leaching experiments were conducted using two types of soils (i.e., artificially Cd-polluted loam and historically polluted silty loam). Chemical agents of CaCl₂, FeCl₃, citric acid, EDTA, rhamnolipid, and deionized water were used to leach Cd from the soils. Results showed that organic agents reduced permeability of both soils, and FeCl₃ reduced permeability of loam soil, compared with inorganic agents and deionized water. Entrapment and deposition of colloids generated from the organic agents and FeCl₃ treatments reduced the soil permeability. The peak Cd effluence from the artificially polluted loam columns was retarded. For the artificially polluted soils treated with EDTA and the historically polluted soils with FeCl₃, Cd precipitates were observed at the bottom after chemical leaching. When Cd was associated with large colloid particles, the reduction of soil permeability caused Cd accumulation in deeper soil. In addition, the slow process of disintegration of soil clay during chemical leaching might result in the retardation of peak Cd effluence. These results suggest the need for caution when using chemical-leaching agents for Cd removal in fine-grained soils.

     

An interdisciplinary review of current and future approaches to improving human–predator relations

In a world of shrinking habitats and increasing competition for natural resources, potentially dangerous predators bring the challenges of coexisting with wildlife sharply into focus. Through interdisciplinary collaboration among authors trained in the humanities, social sciences, and natural sciences, we reviewed current approaches to mitigating adverse human–predator encounters and devised a vision for future approaches to understanding and mitigating such encounters. Limitations to current approaches to mitigation include too much focus on negative impacts; oversimplified equating of levels of damage with levels of conflict; and unsuccessful technical fixes resulting from failure to engage locals, address hidden costs, or understand cultural (nonscientific) explanations of the causality of attacks. An emerging interdisciplinary literature suggests that to better frame and successfully mitigate negative human–predator relations conservation professionals need to consider dispensing with conflict as the dominant framework for thinking about human–predator encounters; work out what conflicts are really about (they may be human–human conflicts); unravel the historical contexts of particular conflicts; and explore different cultural ways of thinking about animals. The idea of cosmopolitan natures may help conservation professionals think more clearly about human–predator relations in both local and global context. These new perspectives for future research practice include a recommendation for focused interdisciplinary research and the use of new approaches, including human‐animal geography, multispecies ethnography, and approaches from the environmental humanities notably environmental history. Managers should think carefully about how they engage with local cultural beliefs about wildlife, work with all parties to agree on what constitutes good evidence, develop processes and methods to mitigate conflicts, and decide how to monitor and evaluate these. Demand for immediate solutions that benefit both conservation and development favors dispute resolution and technical fixes, which obscures important underlying drivers of conflicts. If these drivers are not considered, well‐intentioned efforts focused on human–wildlife conflicts will fail.     

基于IFS-动态加权的地下综合体深基坑施工风险评价

为控制地下综合体深基坑施工风险,提出了一种基于直觉模糊集(IFS)-动态加权的风险评价方法.从地质条件、建筑环境、岩土设计、施工方案和偶然风险5个方面分析地下综合体深基坑施工风险因素,构建了综合风险评价指标体系.采取施工风险5级划分方法,利用IFS理论确定指标风险;以偏大型正态加权函数确定指标权重,得到系统综合风险.以西安市某地下综合体深基坑施工实际为背景,进行方法应用.结果表明,该西安市地下综合体深基坑施工系统风险等级为显著风险.其中,指标"邻近建筑""地下管网"的风险等级为高度风险,"道路交通""基坑边坡稳定性""降排水实施"为显著风险,对此提出了相应的安全措施.     

Vocal Activity as a Low Cost and Scalable Index of Seabird Colony Size

Although wildlife conservation actions have increased globally in number and complexity, the lack of scalable, cost‐effective monitoring methods limits adaptive management and the evaluation of conservation efficacy. Automated sensors and computer‐aided analyses provide a scalable and increasingly cost‐effective tool for conservation monitoring. A key assumption of automated acoustic monitoring of birds is that measures of acoustic activity at colony sites are correlated with the relative abundance of nesting birds. We tested this assumption for nesting Forster's terns (Sterna forsteri) in San Francisco Bay for 2 breeding seasons. Sensors recorded ambient sound at 7 colonies that had 15–111 nests in 2009 and 2010. Colonies were spaced at least 250 m apart and ranged from 36 to 2,571 m². We used spectrogram cross‐correlation to automate the detection of tern calls from recordings. We calculated mean seasonal call rate and compared it with mean active nest count at each colony. Acoustic activity explained 71% of the variation in nest abundance between breeding sites and 88% of the change in colony size between years. These results validate a primary assumption of acoustic indices; that is, for terns, acoustic activity is correlated to relative abundance, a fundamental step toward designing rigorous and scalable acoustic monitoring programs to measure the effectiveness of conservation actions for colonial birds and other acoustically active wildlife. La Actividad Vocal como un Índice Escalable y de Bajo Costo del Tamaño de Colonia de las Aves Marinas