Adaptation options for marine industries and coastal communities using community structure and dynamics

Identifying effective adaptation strategies for coastal communities dependent on marine resources and impacted by climate change can be difficult due to the dynamic nature of marine ecosystems. The task is more difficult if current and predicted shifts in social and economic trends are considered. Information about social and economic change is often limited to qualitative data. A combination of qualitative and quantitative models provide the flexibility to allow the assessment of current and future ecological and socio-economic risks and can provide information on alternative adaptations. Here, we demonstrate how stakeholder input, qualitative models and Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) can provide semi-quantitative predictions, including uncertainty levels, for the assessment of climate and non-climate-driven change in a case study community. Issues are identified, including the need to increase the capacity of the community to cope with change. Adaptation strategies are identified that alter positive feedback cycles contributing to a continued decline in population, local employment and retail spending. For instance, the diversification of employment opportunities and the attraction of new residents of different ages would be beneficial in preventing further population decline. Some impacts of climate change can be combated through recreational bag or size limits and monitoring of popular range-shifted species that are currently unmanaged, to reduce the potential for excessive removal. Our results also demonstrate that combining BBNs and qualitative models can assist with the effective communication of information between stakeholders and researchers. Furthermore, the combination of techniques provides a dynamic, learning-based, semi-quantitative approach for the assessment of climate and socio-economic impacts and the identification of potential adaptation strategies.     

Revisions to the derivation of the Australian and New Zealand guidelines for toxicants in fresh and marine waters

The Australian and New Zealand Guidelines for Fresh and Marine Water Quality are a key document in the Australian National Water Quality Management Strategy. These guidelines released in 2000 are currently being reviewed and updated. The revision is being co-ordinated by the Australian Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities, while technical matters are dealt with by a series of Working Groups. The revision will be evolutionary in nature reflecting the latest scientific developments and a range of stakeholder desires. Key changes will be: increasing the types and sources of data that can be used; working collaboratively with industry to permit the use of commercial-in-confidence data; increasing the minimum data requirements; including a measure of the uncertainty of the trigger value; improving the software used to calculate trigger values; increasing the rigour of site-specific trigger values; improving the method for assessing the reliability of the trigger values; and providing guidance of measures of toxicity and toxicological endpoints that may, in the near future, be appropriate for trigger value derivation. These changes will markedly improve the number and quality of the trigger values that can be derived and will increase end-users’ ability to understand and implement the guidelines in a scientifically rigorous manner.     

Diatoms in bottom sediments as indicators of pollution of urban aquatic ecosystems

Analysis of the concentrations of chemical elements and the composition of diatoms in the surface layer of bottom sediments has been performed in a small reservoir at the mouth of dammed river to evaluate the levels of pollution and the impact of toxicants on diatom communities of the river ecosystem. Data on interrelations between the concentrations of chemical elements and the relationship between inorganic pollution and accumulation of diatoms in bottom sediments as an indicator of development of the diatom assemblage have been obtained using linear correlation analysis and graphical plotting.     

Impact of urban anthropogenic pollution on seed production,morphological and biochemical characteristics of chamomile,Matricaria chamomila L.

It has been shown that the growth of technogenic dust pollution is accompanied by the accumulation of heavy metals in soil and plant phytomass, compared to the control, and that the morphometric and reproductive characteristics of Matricaria chamomila are most sensitive to the impact of these pollutants. The response of plants is manifested in increased variation in morphological characters, mobilization of compensatory protective biochemical mechanisms, and production of more viable seed progeny.     

Development of vegetative and generative organs in magnetic orientation types of radish in a weak permanent magnetic field

Experiments have been performed to evaluate the impact of weak permanent horizontal magnetic field of about 400 A/m on seed formation in the main magnetic orientation types of radish, the north-south (NS) and west-east (WE) types. The results show that external magnetic field exposure retards plant progression through all stages of ontogeny but does not alter the ratio of NS and WE types. Under its effect, the numbers of pods and seeds and seed weight decrease in the NS-type but increase in the WS-type plants. Therefore, external magnetic field acts as an ecological factor that differentiates the responses of radish plants depending on the type of their magnetic orientation. Differences in the sensitivity of plants to magnetic field exposure are explained by specific features of their physiological status.     

Building resilience to water scarcity in southern Spain: a case study of rice farming in Doñana protected wetlands

Agricultural water management needs to evolve in view of increased water scarcity, especially when farming and natural protected areas are closely linked. In the study site of Doñana (southern Spain), water is shared by rice producers and a world heritage biodiversity ecosystem. Our aim is to contribute to defining adaptation strategies that may build resilience to increasing water scarcity and minimize water conflicts among agricultural and natural systems. The analytical framework links a participatory process with quantitative methods to prioritize the adaptation options. Bottom-up proposed adaptation measures are evaluated by a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) that includes both socioeconomic criteria and criteria of the ecosystem services affected by the adaptation options. Criteria weights are estimated by three different methods—analytic hierarchy process, Likert scale and equal weights—that are then compared. Finally, scores from an MCA are input into an optimization model used to determine the optimal land-use distribution in order to maximize utility and land-use diversification according to different scenarios of funds and water availability. While our results show a spectrum of perceptions of priorities among stakeholders, there is one overriding theme that is to define a way to restore part of the rice fields to natural wetlands. These results hold true under the current climate scenario and even more so under an increased water scarcity scenario.     

Climate impact on agroeconomy in semiarid region of Armenia

With 21 % of gross domestic product (GDP) in agricultural sector and having consistently experienced natural disasters (e.g., drought, flood), Armenia is very vulnerable to climate and its change. Given the fact that 63 % of the entire land is planted with grains, this study primarily focuses on the market for wheat flour and bread. Economic welfare loss due to drought episodes is calculated using the economic data integrated with climate measures. Economic data are utilized for the period 1995–2011 (obtained from Statistical Office of Armenia) and specifically include the quantity produced and consumed of wheat flour and bread combined with mean prices, population income, GDP in the agricultural sector, GDP in the planting sector, and governmental expenditure on subsidies. Climate data include temperature and precipitation during the period 1966–2011 (obtained from National Hydrometeorological Service of Armenia). The analysis includes three main components. The first utilizes a market framework that analyzes the impact of climate on equilibrium prices and quantities as well as trade and tax effects. The second employs a logarithmic utility function to estimate the effective insurance policy for the agricultural sector using risk management strategies. Lastly, a macroeconomic model has been developed to assess the efficient sum of governmental expenditure on subsidies and irrigation during the drought episodes and during the mean climatic conditions. All three parts of the study are developed for the first time.     

Relationship between carbon emissions and economic development: case study of six countries

There is much discussion within the sustainable development community regarding climate stabilization and particularly, finding environmentally equitable ways to address emission reductions. Knowing the current level of emission is only one variable in this complex picture. While the rate of emissions is clearly a problem, the overall increase in GHG concentration in the atmosphere is ultimately the main driver of anthropogenic warming. Therefore, it is also important to understand the cumulative emissions, those which have taken us to the current condition. This research presents a case study of six countries to compare the emissions per capita and cumulative emissions during the past 200 years. It is known that carbon emissions are closely related to economic activities, but here we show that some countries have reached per capita emissions plateaus at different levels while others are still rising. Specifically, one approach toward socioeconomic development, in terms of energy–economy, reaches a plateau at 10 Mt carbon per person, which the United Kingdom and South Korea have attained. The US occupies another emission regime at 20 Mt carbon per person. Developing economies such as India and China are considerably below these levels, and unless they follow other integrated economic/environmental solutions, they will continue to increase their per capita emissions during development.     

Comparative analysis of small mammal communities in Chisinau and Yaroslavl, two European cities located in different biomes

Comparative analysis of the structure of small mammal communities has been performed in two European cities located in different biomes: Chisinau (2008?C2009) and Yaroslavl (1994?C2002). The parameters studied included abundance, species composition, similarity and difference of faunas, species diversity, and proportions of groups differing in predisposition to synanthropy. It has been found that the structure of small mammal communities in these cities depends on specific physiographic conditions of the surrounding areas and on the distinctive features of the cities themselves (their structure, age, etc.). The similarity between the faunas is accounted for by the common ecological patterns of fauna formation in the biota of urban cenoses.