Paradise lost already? A naturalist interpretation of the pelagic avian and marine mammal detection database of the IceAGE cruise off Iceland and Faroe Islands in fall 2011

We present naturalist sightings of seabirds and marine mammals made during a research cruise with the IceAGE project off Iceland and the Faroe Islands during September 2011. Our findings from the obtained pelagic database are in-line with many other, more in-depth studies, showing major declines for pelagic seabirds and likely sea mammals, thus revising the role that Iceland now plays for such species. Northern Fulmar (Fulmarus glacialis) was the most recorded species, followed by different gulls, Black-legged Kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla) and Northern Gannet (Morus bassanus). However, Atlantic Puffin (Fratercula arctica) and Common Murre (Uria aalge) were only seen very rarely, and no observations were made of Dovekie (Alle alle) or Thick-billed Murre (U. lomvia). These observations were surprising since Iceland is known, so far, to host globally relevant populations of these auk species. A surprising high number of thirteen species of passerines were also detected offshore, mostly Wheatear (Oenanthe oenanthe), Meadow Pipit (Anthus pratensis) and Reed Bunting (Emberiza schoeniclus). Only a few marine mammals (Balaenoptera and Megaptera sp.) were encountered. Our detections present underestimates but are discussed in relation to ongoing and recently reported but dramatic anthropogenic changes of Iceland and in the North Atlantic overall. These include the substantial decrease in bird populations, overfishing and subsequent trophic cascades, as well as climate change, Arctic shipping and more industrial development to come. In light of these dramatic ecological changes, we conclude with an urgent request for an improved effective conservation management for Iceland, the North Atlantic and its stakeholders for directly related global governance to handle problems proactively.     

Statistical downscaling for climate change projections in the Mediterranean region: methods and results

Besides dynamical downscaling by regional climate models, statistical downscaling (SD) is a major tool to derive climate change projections on regional or even local scales. For the Mediterranean area, an increasing number of downscaling studies based on different statistical techniques have been published in the last two decades with a broad range of sometimes differing results relating to different variables and regional domains. This paper gives a short review of these Mediterranean downscaling studies mainly considering the following two aspects: (1) what kind of progress has been realized in this field since the early 1990s? The review addresses the inclusion of extremes in downscaling assessments, the development of probabilistic approaches, the extension of predictor sets, the use of ensembles for both dynamical model simulations and statistical model assessments, the consideration of non-stationarities in the predictor–predictand relationships, and some advances related to synoptic downscaling. (2) What are the main regional climate change signals in the Mediterranean area, considering agreed and controversial points also with respect to dynamical models? Best accordance among future projections can be found in seasonal temperatures with lower rates of warming in winter and spring, and, in most cases, higher ones in summer and autumn. Different results are obtained for the intra-annual range of extreme temperatures, but high-temperature conditions are generally expected to increase. Regarding seasonal precipitation, predominant reductions are indicated for spring, summer, and autumn. For winter, however, projections are distinctly different (GCMs: rainfall decrease; RCMs: increase only in the northernmost parts of the Mediterranean region; SD: widespread increases in the northern and western parts in several studies). Different results are obtained for rainfall extremes, but the entire precipitation distribution tends to shift towards higher and lower values. Apart from some sub-regional deviations, there is a predominant increase in future dry period durations. For near-surface winds, only a few studies are available, and they project some decline mainly for the winter season.     

Radionuclide Transport and Uptake in Coastal Aquatic Ecosystems: A Comparison of a 3D Dynamic Model and a Compartment Model

In safety assessments of underground radioactive waste repositories, understanding radionuclide fate in ecosystems is necessary to determine the impacts of potential releases. Here, the reliability of two mechanistic models (the compartmental K-model and the 3D dynamic D-model) in describing the fate of radionuclides released into a Baltic Sea bay is tested. Both are based on ecosystem models that simulate the cycling of organic matter (carbon). Radionuclide transfer is linked to adsorption and flows of carbon in food chains. Accumulation of Th-230, Cs-135, and Ni-59 in biological compartments was comparable between the models and site measurements despite differences in temporal resolution, biological state variables, and partition coefficients. Both models provided confidence limits for their modeled concentration ratios, an improvement over models that only estimate means. The D-model enables estimates at high spatio-temporal resolution. The K-model, being coarser but faster, allows estimates centuries ahead. Future developments could integrate the two models to take advantage of their respective strengths.     

Assessment of the Netherlands’ Flood Risk Management Policy Under Global Change

Climate change and sea level rise urge low-lying countries to draft adaption policies. In this context, we assessed whether, to what extent and when the Netherlands’ current flood risk management policy may require a revision. By applying scenarios on climate change and socio-economic development and performing flood simulations, we established the past and future changes in flood probabilities, exposure and consequences until about 2050. We also questioned whether the present policy may be extended much longer, applying the concept of ‘policy tipping points’. Climate change was found to cause a significant increase of flood risk, but less than economic development does. We also established that the current flood risk management policy in the Netherlands can be continued for centuries when the sea level rise rate does not exceed 1.5 m per century. However, we also conclude that the present policy may not be the most attractive strategy, as it has some obvious flaws.     

A Multivariate Baltic Sea Environmental Index

Since 2001/2002, the correlation between North Atlantic Oscillation index and biological variables in the North Sea and Baltic Sea fails, which might be addressed to a global climate regime shift. To understand inter-annual and inter-decadal variability in environmental variables, a new multivariate index for the Baltic Sea is developed and presented here. The multivariate Baltic Sea Environmental (BSE) index is defined as the 1st principal component score of four z-transformed time series: the Arctic Oscillation index, the salinity between 120 and 200 m in the Gotland Sea, the integrated river runoff of all rivers draining into the Baltic Sea, and the relative vorticity of geostrophic wind over the Baltic Sea area. A statistical downscaling technique has been applied to project different climate indices to the sea surface temperature in the Gotland, to the Landsort gauge, and the sea ice extent. The new BSE index shows a better performance than all other climate indices and is equivalent to the Chen index for physical properties. An application of the new index to zooplankton time series from the central Baltic Sea (Latvian EEZ) shows an excellent skill in potential predictability of environmental time series.     

Design, engineering, and construction of photosynthetic microbial cell factories for renewable solar fuel production

There is an urgent need to develop sustainable solutions to convert solar energy into energy carriers used in the society. In addition to solar cells generating electricity, there are several options to generate solar fuels. This paper outlines and discusses the design and engineering of photosynthetic microbial systems for the generation of renewable solar fuels, with a focus on cyanobacteria. Cyanobacteria are prokaryotic microorganisms with the same type of photosynthesis as higher plants. Native and engineered cyanobacteria have been used by us and others as model systems to examine, demonstrate, and develop photobiological H(2) production. More recently, the production of carbon-containing solar fuels like ethanol, butanol, and isoprene have been demonstrated. We are using a synthetic biology approach to develop efficient photosynthetic microbial cell factories for direct generation of biofuels from solar energy. Present progress and advances in the design, engineering, and construction of such cyanobacterial cells for the generation of a portfolio of solar fuels, e.g., hydrogen, alcohols, and isoprene, are presented and discussed. Possibilities and challenges when introducing and using synthetic biology are highlighted.     

Improving soil investigations at brownfield sites using a flexible work strategy and screening methods inspired by the US Environmental Protection Agency's triad approach

Investigations of polluted brownfield sites and sample analyses are expensive, and the resulting data are often of poor quality. Efforts are needed, therefore, to improve the methods used in investigations of brownfield sites to both reduce costs and improve the quality of the results. One approach that could be useful for both of these purposes is the triad strategy, developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency, in which managing uncertainty is a central feature. In the investigations reported here, a field study was conducted to identify possible ways in which uncertainties could be managed in practice. One example considered involves optimizing the uncertainty by adjusting the sizes of samples and the efforts expended in analytical work according to the specific aims of the project. In addition, the potential utility of several toxicity assessment methods for screening sites was evaluated. As well as presenting the results of these assessments, in this contribution we discuss ways in which a flexible work strategy and screening methods inspired of the triad philosophy could be incorporated into the Swedish approach to remediate brownfield sites. A tiered approach taking advantage of field and screening methods is proposed to assess brownfield sites focusing on the response and acceptable uncertainty that are required for the task.     

Estimation of riverine loads of nitrogen and phosphorus to the Baltic Sea, 1970–1993

This article presents the results of the first critical examination of time series of riverine nutrient-load data for the entire Baltic Sea drainage area. Water quality data collected by or for the different national environmental agencies were compiled and analysed statistically to identify and remove inconsistent or obviously incorrect observations. Moreover, sampling tours were undertaken to acquire additional information about the present nutrient concentrations in the largest rivers in the study area. Gaps in the time series of approved data were then filled in by employing statistical interpolation and extrapolation methods. Thereafter, the concentration and runoff data were combined to obtain estimates of monthly nutrient loads for the time period 1970–93. The results of the calculations showed that although there had been substantial changes in land use, atmospheric deposition and wastewater treatment in many parts of the study area, the total riverine loads of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) to the Baltic Sea have been fairly constant since 1980, and most likely also since 1970. Moreover, the interannual variation was clearly correlated to the runoff. The mean annual loads for the time period 1980–93 were found to be about 825 000 tonnes N and 41 000 tonnes P, respectively. This implies that (i) several other investigators have strongly underestimated the riverine loads of nutrients, especially the nitrogen, and that (ii) the riverine loads by far exceed the input to the Baltic Sea from other sources, {i.e.} atmospheric deposition, direct emissions from cities and industries along the Baltic Sea coast and nitrogen fixation by marine algae.     

The Responsibility of Farmers,Public Authorities and Consumers for Safeguarding Bees Against Harmful Pesticides

Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Ethics - This study examines the influence of environmental values on consumer intentions to participate in agritourism through the theory of planned...