Long-term population dynamics of seeded plants in invaded grasslands

In recent decades, dozens of studies have involved attempts to introduce native and desirable nonnative plant species into grasslands dominated by invasive weeds. The newly introduced plants have proved capable of establishing, but because they are rarely monitored for more than four years, it is unknown if they have a high likelihood of persisting and suppressing invaders for the long-term. Beyond invaded grasslands, this lack of long-term monitoring is a general problem plaguing efforts to reintroduce a range of taxa into a range of ecosystems. We introduced species from seed and then periodically measured plant abundances for nine years at one site and 15 years at a second site. To our knowledge, our 15-year data are the longest to date from a seeding experiment in invaded, never-cultivated grassland. At one site, three seeded grasses maintained high densities for three or more years, but then all or nearly all individuals died. At the second site, one grass performed similarly, but two other grasses proliferated and at least one greatly suppressed the dominant invader (Centaurea maculosa). In one study, our point estimate suggests that the seeded grass Thinopyrum intermedium reduced C. maculosa biomass by 93% 15 years after seeding. In some cases, data from three and fewer years after seeding falsely suggested that seeded species were capable of persisting within the invaded grassland. In other cases, data from as late as nine years after seeding falsely suggested seeded populations would not become large enough to suppress the invader. These results show that seeded species sometimes persist and suppress invaders for long periods, but short-term data cannot predict if, when, or where this will occur. Because short-term data are not predictive of long-term seeded species performances, additional long-term data are needed to identify effective practices, traits, and species for revegetating invaded grasslands.     

Advancing climate compatible development: lessons from southern Africa

Climate compatible development (CCD) has emerged as a new concept that bridges climate change adaptation, mitigation and community-based development. Progress towards CCD requires multi-stakeholder, multi-sector working and the development of partnerships between actors who may not otherwise have worked together. This creates challenges and opportunities that require careful examination at project and institutional levels and necessitates the sharing of experiences between different settings. In this paper, we draw on the outcomes from a multi-stakeholder workshop held in Mozambique in 2012, the final in a series of activities in a regional project assessing emerging CCD partnerships across southern Africa. The workshop involved policymakers, researchers and representatives from NGOs and the private sector. We employ a content analysis of workshop notes and presentations to identify the progress and challenges in moving four case study countries (the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe) towards CCD pathways, by exploring experiences from both project and policy levels. To advance institutional support for the development of successful CCD policies, practices and partnerships, we conclude that there is a need for: (a) institutional development at the national level to strengthen coordination and more clearly define roles and responsibilities across sectors, based on the identification of capacity and knowledge gaps; (b) partnership development, drawing on key strengths and competences of different stakeholders and emphasising the roles of the private sector and traditional authorities; (c) learning and knowledge-sharing through national and regional fora; and (d) development of mechanisms that permit more equitable and transparent distribution of costs and benefits. These factors can facilitate development of multi-stakeholder, multi-level partnerships that are grounded in community engagement from the outset, helping to translate CCD policy statements into on-the-ground action.     

A socio-ecological adaptive approach to contaminated mega-site management: from 'control and correct' to 'coping with change'

Mega-sites have a notable impact on surrounding ecological systems. At such sites there are substantial risks associated with complex socio-ecological interactions that are hard to characterize, let alone model and predict. While the urge to control and clean-up mega-sites (control and correct) is understandable, rather than setting a goal of cleaning up such sites, we suggest a more realistic response strategy is to address these massive and persistent sources of contamination by acknowledging their position as new features of the socio-ecological landscapes within which they are located. As it seems nearly impossible to clean up such sites, we argue for consideration of a 'coping with change' rather than a 'control and correct' approach. This strategy recognizes that the current management option for a mega-site, in light of its physical complexities and due to changing societal preferences, geochemical transformations, hydrogeology knowledge and remedial technology options may not remain optimal in future, and therefore needs to be continuously adapted, as community, ecology, technology and understanding change over time. This approach creates an opportunity to consider the relationship between a mega-site and its human and ecological environments in a different and more dynamic way. Our proposed approach relies on iterative adaptive management to incorporate mega-site management into the overall socio-ecological systems of the site's context. This approach effectively embeds mega-site management planning in a triple bottom line and environmental sustainability structure, rather than simply using single measures of success, such as contaminant-based guidelines. Recognizing that there is probably no best solution for managing a mega-site, we present a starting point for engaging constructively with this seemingly intractable issue. Therefore, we aim to initiate discussion about a new approach to mega-site management, in which the complexity of the problems posed by mega-sites is reflected upon in its entirety. These complexities are associated with uncertainties and unknowns that have to be addressed, as they have an impact on the strategies being developed and applied. We contend that the best that can be hoped for in mega-site management is an acceptable solution for the current state of affairs, with good flexibility to modify strategies as new site conditions, remediation possibilities, community preferences and management objectives develop over time.     

Ecological indicators of global climate change: A research framework

Large-scale environmental research efforts are conducted under frameworks that provide a common basis for evaluating research in many diverse fields. Such frameworks should be subjected to critical review to determine if they meet crucial expectations. In the case of the US Global Change Research Program, we perceive that most research follows a framework that we define as the predictive model framework. We believe this framework is insufficient for resolving the unprecedented predicaments posed by global change. We recommend a complementary framework, the system response framework, which directs research toward useful indicators of change rather than precise predictions. We further argue that, even if research is complementary and effective under the two frameworks, conclusive results prior to decisions should not be expected. The burden of proof must itself be a continuing topic of open discourse and inquiry.     

OPTIMAL LONG-TERM SCHEDULING OF STORMWATER DRAINAGE REHABILITATION1

ABSTRACT: A mathematical model is developed to optimally schedule long-term stormwater infrastructure rehabilitation activities. The model is capable of considering multiple rehabilitation projects and is driven by overall cost eensiderations. Rehabilitation activities are scheduled based on perceived reliabilities and future deterioration expected within the specified planning horizon. Future growth within the stormwater drainage basin is incorporated using chance constraints that limit the likelihood that a stormwater discharge exceeds system conveyance capacity. Model structure and development are discussed, and a hypothetical example using a drainage network is presented.     

Reducing phosphorus runoff from dairy farms

Phosphorus (P) runoff from manure can lead to eutrophication of surface water and algae growth. This study evaluates the impacts of alternative P reduction practices on dairy farm net returns and on potential P runoff. The P control practices include dairy herd nutrient management, crop nutrient management, and runoff and erosion control. Four farms representative of dairies in the Virginia Shenandoah Valley are simulated including dairies with and without supplementary broiler enterprises and with average and below average land area. A mathematical programming model was developed to predict farm production and net returns and the GLEAMS model was used to predict potential P runoff. The farms are evaluated under four scenarios: Scenario 1, no constraint on P runoff with access to crop nutrient, runoff and erosion control strategies but no access to dairy herd nutrient control strategies; Scenario 2, no constraint on P runoff with access to all crop and dairy herd nutrient control strategies; Scenario 3, constraint on P runoff with access to crop nutrient, runoff and erosion control strategies but no access to dairy herd nutrient control strategies; and Scenario 4, constraint on P runoff with access to all crop and dairy herd nutrient control strategies. Under Scenario 2, the herd nutrient control strategies increase milk output per cow and net returns on both farms and reduce P content of manure and P runoff. Under Scenario 3, limiting P runoff reduces farm returns by 1 and 3% on the average and small farms, respectively. Under Scenario 4, the P runoff constraint is less costly, reducing returns by less than 1% on both farms. Animal nutrient control strategies should be an important part of pollution control policies and programs for livestock intensive watersheds.     

Neuere Ergebnisse der Mathematik

A short glance over recent progress in mathematical research. A more detailed account of the state of arts in the following domains of research: arithmetical progression (“Szemerédi-Furstenberg-Weiss-Saga”), Arrow's dictator theorem, classification of knots, inversion of the 2-sphere.