Models,Assumptions, and Stakeholders: Planning for Water Supply Variability in the Colorado River Basin1

Abstract: Declining reservoir storage has raised the specter of the first water shortage on the Lower Colorado River since the completion of Glen Canyon and Hoover Dams. This focusing event spurred modeling efforts to frame alternatives for managing the reservoir system during prolonged droughts. This paper addresses the management challenges that arise when using modeling tools to manage water scarcity under variable hydroclimatology, shifting use patterns, and institutional complexity. Assumptions specified in modeling simulations are an integral feature of public processes. The policymaking and management implications of assumptions are examined by analyzing four interacting sources of physical and institutional uncertainty: inflow (runoff), depletion (water use), operating rules, and initial reservoir conditions. A review of planning documents and model reports generated during two recent processes to plan for surplus and shortage in the Colorado River demonstrates that modeling tools become useful to stakeholders by clarifying the impacts of modeling assumptions at several temporal and spatial scales. A high reservoir storage‐to‐runoff ratio elevates the importance of assumptions regarding initial reservoir conditions over the three‐year outlook used to assess the likelihood of reaching surplus and shortage triggers. An ensemble of initial condition predictions can provide more robust initial conditions estimates. This paper concludes that water managers require model outputs that encompass a full range of future potential outcomes, including best and worst cases. Further research into methods of representing and communicating about hydrologic and institutional uncertainty in model outputs will help water managers and other stakeholders to assess tradeoffs when planning for water supply variability.     

Practicing food justice at Dig Deep Farms & Produce,East Bay Area,California: self-determination as a guiding value and intersections with foodie logics

This article describes Dig Deep Farms & Produce, a food justice organisation and urban farm working to stimulate local economic development, create jobs, and improve the quality and accessibility of food in Ashland and Cherryland in California's Bay Area. Their practices are based on self-determined values although they take a flexible, anti-essentialist approach to foodie logics, which are prominent and problematic in the Bay Area. The case study then examines specific practices and strategies, as well as intersections with foodie logics, in three arenas – values determination, strategic partnerships, and foodways – that help to cultivate food justice and highlights key characteristics of food justice work: emphasising self-determination and working to fundamentally change the economic and social conditions of food apartheid.     

Prenatal diagnosis of mosaic tetrasomy 5p

We report the prenatal diagnosis of a fetus with tetrasomy 5p mosaicism resulting from a supernumerary isochromosome for the short arm of chromosome 5. The pregnancy was terminated and fetal autopsy revealed minor facial abnormalities (long philtrum, up-slanting palpebral fissures and a broad nasal bridge). Cultures were established from fetal skin, kidney, and pancreas for cytogenetic analysis; the i(5p) was observed only in the skin fibroblasts. To our knowledge, this is the fourth report of mosaic tetrasomy 5p and the first report of prenatal diagnosis of this abnormality. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Australian bushfire fatalities 1900–2008: exploring trends in relation to the ‘Prepare,stay and defend or leave early’ policy

In many jurisdictions, including parts of the US, authorities often dictate mandatory evacuations of communities threatened by bushfire (wildfire). Prior to the 2009 ‘Black Saturday’ fires in Victoria, Australian fire authorities in all States advised residents to decide whether they would prepare to stay and defend homes or leave early. The clear intent of that policy was to avoid late evacuations and the risks to life that this could entail. This study re-examines evidence underpinning this policy using analyses of a database of bushfire fatalities. The database contains information on 552 civilian (non-fire fighter) fatalities obtained from print media archives at Risk Frontiers and forensic, witness and police statements contained within coronial inquest reports for all bushfire fatalities between 1901 and 2008. This data, compiled before the Black Saturday fires, clearly show the dangers of being caught outside during a bushfire and the gendered division of the circumstances of these deaths. While men have been most often killed outside while attempting to protect assets, most female and child fatalities occurred while sheltering in the house or attempting to flee. The database provides a benchmark against which the Black Saturday experience can be examined.     

Effect of chimneys on indoor air concentrations of PM10 and benzo[a]pyrene in Xuan Wei,China

This paper reports the effect of chimneys in reducing indoor air pollution in a lung cancer epidemic area of rural China. Household indoor air pollution concentrations were measured during unvented burning (chimneys blocked) and vented burning (chimneys open) of bituminous coal in Xuan Wei, China. Concentrations of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 μm or less (PM₁₀) and of benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) were measured in 43 homes during normal activities. The use of chimneys led to significant decreases in indoor air concentrations of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 μm or less (PM₁₀) by 66% and of benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) by 84%. The average BaP content of PM₁₀ also decreased by 55% with the installation of a chimney. The reduction of indoor pollution levels by the installation of a chimney supports the epidemiology findings on the health benefits of stove improvement. However, even in the presence of a chimney, the indoor air concentrations for both PM₁₀ and BaP still exceeded the indoor air quality standards of China. Movement up the energy ladder to cleaner liquid or gaseous fuels is probably the only sustainable indoor air pollution control measure.     

Spatial relationships and matrilineal kinship in African savanna elephant (Loxodonta africana) clans

African savanna elephants, Loxodonta africana, live in stable family groups consisting of adult females and their dependent offspring. During the dry season, clans consisting of several family groups typically share a common home range. We compared spatial relationships and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) haplotypes among 14 adult female elephants within 3 clans during the dry season in northern Zimbabwe. Spatial relationships were studied by radio-tracking. Home-range similarity was quantified by correlating the estimated utilization distributions of all pairs of elephants. Clans were identified by cluster analysis of the home-range similarity values. All three clans contained at least two of the five mtDNA haplotypes that were found, indicating that clan members are not necessarily matrilineally related. Within clans, home ranges of elephants with the same haplotype were not significantly more similar to each other than those of elephants with different haplotypes. Most elephants within each clan used their shared home ranges independently of each other: the distribution of distances between their positions at any given time did not differ from the distribution expected by chance. However, 8 out of the 26 within-clan pairs exhibited long-term coordination of space use by remaining within known hearing distance of each others low-frequency calls significantly more often than expected by chance. At least four of these coordinated pairs consisted of animals in different family groups. Elephants in three of the four different-family pairs whose movements were coordinated had different haplotypes. Further research is needed to determine the relationship between these coordinated movements and conventionally defined bond-group behavior.Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at .Communicated by C. Nunn     

Recapturing fugitive power: epistemology, complexity and democracy

While policy network theory employs complexity concepts (self-regulation, emergence) mainly as explanatory tools, potential theoretical contributions arising from the underpinning analytical principles have been less explored. It is argued that by directly considering multi-level environmental governance as a far-from-equilibrium complex system, it is possible to explore how governance structures might better support and construe the dynamic and delicate conditions necessary for the presence of life. Problem formulation or 'agenda setting' powers exerted by civil servants and scientists are examined as emergent properties, systemic in and necessary for the stability of multi-level governance structures. Finally, it is proposed that multi-level environmental governance design may be improved through a reconceptualisation of representation, informed by principles from complexity theory, which embraces and 'recaptures' power exerted through extra-electoral governance relationships.     

The cost of tolerance: sensitivity of stream benthic communities to UV-B and metals.

The ability to tolerate disturbance is a defense strategy that minimizes the effects of damage to fitness and is essential for sustainability of populations, communities, and ecosystems. Despite the apparent benefits of tolerance, there may be an associated cost that results in a deficiency of a system to respond to additional disturbances. Aquatic ecosystems are often exposed to a variety of natural and anthropogenic disturbances, and the effects of these compound perturbations are not well known. In this investigation, we examine whether tolerance to one stressor, metals, results in a cost of increased sensitivity to an additional stressor, ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation. Heavy metal pollution is recognized as a major environmental problem in Rocky Mountain streams. These high-elevation, typically clear streams may be at particular risk to elevated UV-B levels associated with reduced levels of ozone. Microcosm experiments were conducted using natural stream benthic communities collected from a reference site and a site with a long-term history of heavy-metal pollution. Direct and interactive effects of heavy metals and UV-B radiation on structural and functional characteristics of benthic communities were evaluated among four treatments: control, UV-B, metals, and metal and UV-B. Communities from the metal-polluted site were more tolerant of metals but less tolerant to UV-B compared to reference communities. Increased mayfly drift and reduced metabolism in response to metal exposure were observed in reference communities but not in the metal-polluted communities. In contrast to these results, UV-B radiation significantly reduced community metabolism, total macroinvertebrate abundance, and abundances of mayflies, caddisflies, and dipterans from the metal-polluted site, but had no effects on benthic communities from the reference site. ANOSIM results demonstrated that community responses differed among treatments at both sites. Metals had the largest impact on community differences at both sites, while UV-B had greater impacts at the metal-polluted site. This research demonstrates the need to account for potential costs associated with tolerance and that these costs can result in behavioral, structural, and functional impacts to benthic communities.     

Infrasonic calls of the Asian elephant (Elephas maximus)

Summary Calls at frequencies below the range of human hearing were recorded from two groups of captive Asian elephants (Elephas maximus). Most of the calls ranged in frequency from 14 to 24 Hz, with durations of 10–15 s (Fig. 1). With the nearest elephant 5 m from the microphone, sound pressure levels were 85 to 90 dB (re 20 Pa). These calls occurred in a variety of circumstances. Elephants are the first terrestrial mammals reported to produce infrasound. These calls may be important in the coordination of behavior in thick vegetation or among separated groups of elephants.     

Patterns of shell repair in articulate brachiopods indicate size constitutes a refuge from predation

The cost of overcoming prey defenses relative to the value of internal tissues is a key criterion in predator/prey interactions. Optimal foraging theory predicts: (1) specific sizes of prey will result in the best returns to predators, and (2) there will often be a size at which the cost/benefit balance is low enough to effectively exclude predation. Data presented here on styles of repaired shell damage and size at which injury had been sustained was collected from samples of terebratulide brachiopods from the Antarctic Peninisula (Liothyrella uva), Falkland Islands (Magellania venosa and Terebratella dorsata) and Chile (M. venosa). The predominant form of damage on shells was indicative of predators attacking the valve margins. The modal size for repaired damage was more than 10 mm smaller than the modal size for the overall size distribution in each species and there were no repaired attacks in the largest size classes of any species. These data suggest that size forms a refuge from predation, as would be predicted by optimal foraging theory. The optimal sizes that predators appeared to attack vary between species, as do the sizes that provided a refuge from predation. High levels of multiple repairs (19% of the M. venosa population from the Falkland Islands sampled had 2 or more repairs) suggest that the mortality following attack is low, suggesting that many predators abandon their attacks.