Globalization of human infectious disease

Globalization has facilitated the spread of numerous infectious agents to all corners of the planet. Analysis of the Global Infectious Disease and Epidemiology Network (GIDEON) database quantitatively illustrates that the globalization of human infectious agents depends significantly on the range of hosts used. Infectious agents specific to humans are broadly and uniformly distributed, whereas zoonotic infectious agents are far more localized in their geographical distribution. Moreover, these patterns vary depending on transmission mode and infectious agent taxonomy. This dichotomy is unlikely to persist if certain aspects of globalization (for example, exotic species introductions) continue unabated. This raises a serious concern for public health and leaves nations with the task of determining the infectious agents that have the greatest potential to establish within their borders. At the advent of a century characterized by an apparent increase in emerging infectious diseases, these results have critical implications for public-health policy and future research pathways of infectious disease ecology.     

Is sex-specific mass gain in Cory’s shearwaters <Emphasis Type="Italic">Calonectris diomedea</Emphasis> related to begging and steroid hormone expression?

Mass differences between the sexes of dimorphic bird species often appear early in the nestling development. But how do adults know how much to feed a chick in a sexually dimorphic species? Do chicks of the heavier sex beg more? We studied begging in Cory’s shearwaters Calonectris diomedea, a species with heavier adult and juvenile males than females. We found that begging rates and call numbers were not different between male and female chicks, but parameters of begging intensity differed between the sexes in their relationship to chick body condition. For the same body condition, males had significantly higher begging call numbers and rates. Acoustical parameters, which were analysed semi-automatically, included the lengths of call and silence intervals, the minimum, mean and maximum frequency in a call and the number of frequency peaks within a call. We found no consistent differences of acoustic begging call elements between the sexes. Male and female chicks did not differ in the levels of the steroid hormones testosterone or corticosterone in the second quarter of the nestling period, and the mechanism leading to sex-related differences in begging rates for a given body condition remains unknown.     

Quantifying ecological thresholds from response surfaces

Ecological thresholds are abrupt changes of ecological state. While an ecological threshold is a widely accepted concept, most empirical methods detect them in time or across geographic space. Although useful, these approaches do not quantify the direct drivers of threshold response. Causal understanding of thresholds detected empirically requires their investigation in a multi-factor domain containing the direct drivers (often referred to as state space). Here, we present an approach to quantify thresholds from response surfaces modeled empirically in state space. We present two indices of shape attributes measured from response surfaces. The response surfaces are built using a regression method in state space. The indices are threshold strength (T) and diagonality (D). We use 48 simulated response surfaces of different shapes to test the efficacy of the indices in 3D. Our results show that T is sensitive to the steepness of the transition from one state to the next, with various forms of abrupt, centralized thresholds yielding the highest values among the simulated surfaces. D represents the orientation of the response surface or the simultaneous influence of more than one predictor in eliciting the response gradient. Strongly diagonal surfaces have the most diagonal surface area demonstrated by sharply undulating diagonal surfaces. Given that the success of T and D requires a regression method to accurately capture any shape of complex data structure, we also test the accuracy of empirical regression methods known to be tractable with complex data. We test classification and regression trees (CART), Random Forest, and non-parametric multiplicative regression (NPMR) for binary and continuous responses. We use the 48 simulated response surfaces to test the methods, and we find that prediction accuracy depends on both the T and D of the simulated data for each method. We choose the most accurate method among those we test for capturing any shape of response surface from real data, NPMR. Finally, we use NPMR to build response surfaces and quantify T and D from real ecological data sets. We demonstrate how measuring threshold strength and diagonality from multi-factor response surfaces can advance ecology.     

Use of headspace SPME-GC-MS for the analysis of the volatiles produced by indoor molds grown on different substrates

An automated headspace solid phase microextraction method followed by GC-MS analysis was used to evaluate and compare the in vitro production of microbial volatile organic compounds (MVOCs) on malt extract agar, plasterboard and wallpaper. Five fungal strains were isolated from the walls of water-damaged houses and identified. In addition, four other common molds were studied. In general, MVOC production was the highest on malt extract agar. On this synthetic medium, molds typically produced 2-methylpropanol, 2-methylbutanol and 3-methylbutanol. On wallpaper, mainly 2-ethylhexanol, methyl 2-ethylhexanoate and compounds of the C8-complex such as 1-octene-3-ol, 3-octanone, 3-octanol and 1,3-octadiene were detected. The detection of 2-ethylhexanol and methyl 2-ethylhexanoate indicates an enhanced degradation of the substrate by most fungi. For growth on plasterboard, no typical metabolites were detected. Despite these metabolite differences on malt extract agar, wallpaper and plasterboard, some molds also produced specific compounds independently of the used substrate, such as trichodiene from Fusarium sporotrichioides and aristolochene from Penicillium roqueforti. Therefore, these metabolites can be used as markers for the identification and maybe also mycotoxin production of these molds. All five investigated Penicillium spp. in this study were able to produce two specific diterpenes, which were not produced by the other species studied. These two compounds, which remain unidentified until now, therefore seem specific for Penicillium spp. and are potentially interesting for the monitoring of this fungal genus. Further experiments will be performed with other Penicillium spp. to study the possibility that these two compounds are specific for this group of molds.     

Changing Speed-VMT Distributions: The Effects on Emissions Inventories and Conformity

ABSTRACT

The emissions factor modeling component of the motor vehicle emissions inventory (MVEI) modeling suite is currently being revised by the California Air Resources Board (CARB). One of the proposed changes in modeling philosophy is a shift from using link-based travel activity data to trip-based travel data for preparing mobile emissions inventories. Also as part of the revisions, new speed correction factors (SCFs) will be developed by CARB for the revised model. The new SCFs will be derived from vehicle emissions on 15 new driving cycles, each constructed to represent a typical trip at a specific average speed. This paper discusses how the new SCFs will affect transportation conformity and emissions inventory development, and evaluates the differences in total emissions produced by trip-based and link-based distributions of speed and vehicle miles of travel (VMT).

We simulated both link-based and trip-based speed-VMT distributions using travel data from the Sacramento and San Diego travel demand models. On the basis of the simulation results, there is reason to expect that mobile emissions inventories constructed using the proposed trip-based philosophy will differ markedly from those constructed in the current manner. Noting that results may vary by region, increases are expected in the CO and HC inventory levels, with concomitant decreases in the NO_x mobile emissions inventories.     

Effect of the Fine Fraction of Particulate Matter versus the Coarse Mass and Other Pollutants on Daily Mortality in Santiago,Chile

ABSTRACT

Daily counts of non-accidental deaths in Santiago, Chile, from 1988 to 1996 were regressed on six air pollutants— fine particles (PM_2.5), coarse particles (PM_10–2.5), CO, SO₂, NO₂, and O₃. Controlling for seasonal and meteorological conditions was done using three different models— a generalized linear model, a generalized additive model, and a generalized additive model on previously filtered data. Single- and two-pollutant models were tested for lags of 1-5 days and the average of the previous 2-5 days.

The increase in mortality associated with the mean levels of air pollution varied from 4 to 11%, depending on the pollutants and the way season of the year was considered. The results were not sensitive to the modeling approaches, but different effects for warmer and colder months were found. Fine particles were more important than coarse particles in the whole year and in winter, but not in summer. NO₂ and CO were also significantly associated with daily mortality, as was O₃ in the warmer months. No consistent effect was observed for SO₂. Given particle composition in Santiago, these results suggest that combustion-generated pollutants, especially from motor vehicles, may be associated with increased mortality. Temperature was closely associated with mortality. High temperatures led to deaths on the same day, while low temperatures lead to deaths from 1 to 4 days later.     

Removal processes for arsenic in constructed wetlands

Arsenic pollution in aquatic environments is a worldwide concern due to its toxicity and chronic effects on human health. This concern has generated increasing interest in the use of different treatment technologies to remove arsenic from contaminated water. Constructed wetlands are a cost-effective natural system successfully used for removing various pollutants, and they have shown capability for removing arsenic. This paper reviews current understanding of the removal processes for arsenic, discusses implications for treatment wetlands, and identifies critical knowledge gaps and areas worthy of future research. The reactivity of arsenic means that different arsenic species may be found in wetlands, influenced by vegetation, supporting medium and microorganisms. Despite the fact that sorption, precipitation and coprecipitation are the principal processes responsible for the removal of arsenic, bacteria can mediate these processes and can play a significant role under favourable environmental conditions. The most important factors affecting the speciation of arsenic are pH, alkalinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen, the presence of other chemical species - iron, sulphur, phosphate -, a source of carbon, and the wetland substrate. Studies of the microbial communities and the speciation of arsenic in the solid phase using advanced techniques could provide further insights on the removal of arsenic. Limited data and understanding of the interaction of the different processes involved in the removal of arsenic explain the rudimentary guidelines available for the design of wetlands systems.     

Rapid prenatal diagnosis of 14 cases of triploidy using fish with multiple probes

Fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) of chromosome-specific probes to interphase nuclei can rapidly identify aneuploidies in uncultured amniotic fluid cells. Using DNA probe sets specific for chromosomes 13, 18, 21, X, and Y, we have identified 14 fetuses where the hybridization pattern was consistent with a triploid chromosome constitution. In each case, the identification of fetal abnormalities by ultrasound examination initiated a request for rapid determination of ploidy status via prenatal FISH analysis of uncultured amniocytes. FISH produced a three-signal pattern for the three autosomes in combination with signals indicating an XXX or XXY sex chromosome complement. This hybridization pattern was interpreted to be consistent with triploidy. Results were reported to the physician within 2 days of amniocentesis and subsequently confirmed by cytogenetics. These cases demonstrate the utility of FISH for rapid prenatal identification of triploidy, particularly when fetal abnormalities are seen with ultrasonographic examination.     

Trace elements and organochlorines in surf scoters from San Francisco Bay, 1985

Surf scoters (Melanitta perspicillata) were collected from 6 locations in San Francisco Bay during January and March 1985. Overall, mean concentrations of cadmium and zinc were higher in livers of scoters from the southern region of the Bay, whereas mean iron and lead were higher in those from the northern Bay region. Mean concentrations of arsenic, copper, lead, zinc, aluminum (January only) and iron (January) also differed among individual locations. Mean concentrations of copper and zinc increased, arsenic decreased, and cadmium remained the same between January and March. Selenium and mercury concentrations in scoter livers were not significantly correlated (P>0.05), but cadmium concentrations in livers and kidneys were positively correlated (P<0.0001), and body weight was negatively related to mercury concentration in the liver (P<0.05). Body weight differed among locations but not between January and March. Body weight was correlated with lipid content (P<0.0001). DDE and PCBs were each detected in 34 of 36 scoter carcasses. DDE increased significantly between January and March at Richmond Harbor, but BCBs did not differ between January and March at the 3 locations that could be tested.     

Effects of vegetation cover, presence of a native ant species, and human disturbance on colonization by Argentine ants

The spread of non-native invasive species is affected by human activity, vegetation cover, weather, and interaction with native species. We analyzed data from a 17-year study of the distribution of the non-native Argentine ant (Linepithema humile) and the native winter ant (Prenolepis imparis) in a preserve in northern California (U.S.A.). We conducted logistic regressions and used model selection to determine whether the following variables were associated with changes in the distribution of each species: presence of conspecifics at neighboring sites, distance to development (e.g., roads, buildings, and landscaped areas), proportion of vegetation cover taller than 0.75 m, elevation, distance to water, presence of both species at a site, temperature, and rainfall. Argentine ants colonized unoccupied sites from neighboring sites, but the probability of appearance and persistence decreased as distance to development, vegetation cover, and elevation increased. Winter ants appeared and persisted in sites with relatively high vegetation cover (i.e., highly shaded sites). Presence of the 2 species was negatively associated in sites with high vegetation cover (more winter ants) and sites near development (more Argentine ants). Probability of colonization of Argentine ants decreased where winter ants were most persistent. At sites near development within the preserve, abundant Argentine ant populations may be excluding winter ants. The high abundance of Argentine ants at these sites may be due to immigration from suburban areas outside the preserve, which are high-quality habitat for Argentine ants. In the interior of the preserve, distance from development, low-quality habitat, and interaction with winter ants may in combination exclude Argentine ants. Interactions among the variables we examined were associated with low probabilities of Argentine ant colonization in the preserve.