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71.
Graphical models provide an important tool for facilitating communication between scientists, decision-makers, and statisticians—many
complicated ecological processes can be described in terms of “box-and-arrow” conceptual diagrams (e.g., Shipley in Cause
and correlation in biology: a user’s guide to path analysis, structural equations and causal inferences, Cambridge Universtiy
Press, Cambridge, 2000; Clark and Gelfand TRENDS in Ecology and Evolution 21:375–380, 2006). In particular, problems in landscape
ecology often involve modeling relationships among multiple physical and/or biological variables that may operate on differing
spatial scales (e.g., Rossi et al. in Ecol Monographs 62:277–314, 1992; Legendre et al. in Ecography 25:601–615, 2002; Overmars
et al. in Ecol Model 164:257–270, 2003; Brown and Spector in J Appl Ecol 45:1639–1648, 2008; Koniak and Noy-Meir in Ecol Model
220:1148–1158, 2008). These problems are inherently multivariate, though researchers commonly rely on univariate methods,
such as spatial regression models, to address them. In this paper, we introduce a multivariate method—graphical spatial models—that
extends path analysis to incorporate spatial autocorrelation in one or more variables in a directed graph. We show how both
exogenous and endogenous ecological processes as defined by Legendre et al. (Ecography 25:601–615, 2002) and Lichstein et al.
(Ecol Monographs 72:445–463, 2002) can be represented in a graph. Most importantly, we show how to translate graphs representing
these ecological processes into statistically estimable models. We motivate our theoretical results using an example of stream
health data from the Willamette Valley, Oregon. For these data we are interested in the spatial pattern within both riparian
land use and an index of stream health, and whether there is an association between land use and stream health, after accounting
for these spatial patterns. We use a graphical spatial model to address these ecological questions simultaneously. We find
that the health of a stream decreases as the percent of developed land within a 120-m riparian buffer increases; interestingly,
there is only evidence of spatial pattern within land use. 相似文献
72.
Mayhew DR Simpson HM Wood KM Lonero L Clinton KM Johnson AG 《Journal of Safety Research》2011,42(4):267-275
Introduction
A converging pair of studies investigated the validity of a simulator for measuring driving performance/skill.Study 1
A concurrent validity study compared novice driver performance during an on-road driving test with their performance on a comparable simulated driving test.Results
Results showed a reasonable degree of concordance in terms of the distribution of driving errors on-road and errors on the simulator. Moreover, there was a significant relationship between the two when driver performance was rank ordered according to errors, further establishing the relative validity of the simulator. However, specific driving errors on the two tasks were not closely related suggesting that absolute validity could not be established and that overall performance is needed to establish the level of skill.Study 2
A discriminant validity study compared driving performance on the simulator across three groups of drivers who differ in their level of experience - a group of true beginners who had no driving experience, a group of novice drivers who had completed driver education and had a learner's permit, and a group of fully licensed, experienced drivers.Results
The findings showed significant differences among the groups in the expected direction -- the various measures of driving errors showed that beginners performed worse than novice drivers and that experienced drivers had the fewest errors. Collectively, the results of the concurrent and discriminant validity studies support the use of the simulator as a valid measure of driving performance for research purposes.Impact on industry
These findings support the use of a driving simulator as a valid measure of driving performance for research purposes. Future research should continue to examine validity between on-road driving performance and performance on a driving simulator and the use of simulated driving tests in the evaluation of driver education/training programs. 相似文献73.
74.
Cindy E. Hauser Katherine M. Giljohann Michael A. McCarthy Georgia E. Garrard Andrew P. Robinson Nicholas S. G. Williams Joslin L. Moore 《Conservation biology》2022,36(3):e13888
Surveys aimed at finding threatened and invasive species can be challenging due to individual rarity and low and variable individual detection rates. Detection rate in plant surveys typically varies due to differences among observers, among the individual plants being surveyed (targets), and across background environments. Interactions among these 3 components may occur but are rarely estimated due to limited replication and control during data collection. We conducted an experiment to investigate sources of variation in detection of 2 Pilosella species that are invasive and sparsely distributed in the Alpine National Park, Australia. These species are superficially similar in appearance to other yellow-flowered plants occurring in this landscape. We controlled the presence and color of flowers on target Pilosella plants and controlled their placement in plots, which were selected for their variation in cover of non-target yellow flowers and dominant vegetation type. Observers mimicked Pilosella surveys in the plots and reported 1 categorical and 4 quantitative indicators of their survey experience level. We applied survival analysis to detection data to model the influence of both controlled and uncontrolled variables on detection rate. Orange- and yellow-flowering Pilosella in grass- and heath-dominated vegetation were detected at a higher rate than nonflowering Pilosella. However, this detection gain diminished as the cover of other co-occurring yellow-flowering species increased. Recent experience with Pilosella surveys improved detection rate. Detection experiments are a direct and accessible means of understanding detection processes and interpreting survey data for threatened and invasive species. Our detection findings have been used for survey planning and can inform progress toward eradication. Interaction of target and background characteristics determined detection rate, which enhanced predictions in the Pilosella eradication program and demonstrated the difficulty of transferring detection findings into untested environments. 相似文献
75.
Douglas G. Sprugel Katherine G. Rascher Rolf Gersonde Martin Dovčiak James A. Lutz Charles B. Halpern 《Ecological modelling》2009
Young forests can be manipulated in diverse ways to enhance their ecological values. We used stem maps from two dense, second-growth stands in western Washington and a spatially explicit light model (tRAYci) to simulate effects of five silvicultural manipulations on diameter distribution, species composition, spatial patterning, and light availability. Each treatment removed 30% of the basal area, but differed in how trees were selected for removal. Three primary treatments were thin from below (removing the smallest trees), random thin (removing trees randomly), and gap creation (removing all trees in circles ∼1 tree height in diameter). Two additional treatments combined elements of these approaches: random ecological thin (a mixture of thin from below and random thin) and structured ecological thin (a mixture of thin from below and gap creation). 相似文献
76.
Alastair R Harborne Peter J Mumby Carrie V Kappel Craig P Dahlgren Fiorenza Micheli Katherine E Holmes Daniel R Brumbaugh 《Ecological applications》2008,18(7):1689-1701
Habitat maps are frequently invoked as surrogates of biodiversity to aid the design of networks of marine reserves. Maps are used to maximize habitat heterogeneity in reserves because this is likely to maximize the number of species protected. However, the technique's efficacy is limited by intra-habitat variability in the species present and their abundances. Although communities are expected to vary among patches of the same habitat, this variability is poorly documented and rarely incorporated into reserve planning. To examine intra-habitat variability in coral-reef fishes, we generated a data set from eight tropical coastal habitats and six islands in the Bahamian archipelago using underwater visual censuses. Firstly, we provide further support for habitat heterogeneity as a surrogate of biodiversity as each predefined habitat type supported a distinct assemblage of fishes. Intra-habitat variability in fish community structure at scales of hundreds of kilometers (among islands) was significant in at least 75% of the habitats studied, depending on whether presence/absence, density, or biomass data were used. Intra-habitat variability was positively correlated with the mean number of species in that habitat when density and biomass data were used. Such relationships provide a proxy for the assessment of intra-habitat variability when detailed quantitative data are scarce. Intra-habitat variability was examined in more detail for one habitat (forereefs visually dominated by Montastraea corals). Variability in community structure among islands was driven by small, demersal families (e.g., territorial pomacentrid and labrid fishes). Finally, we examined the ecological and economic significance of intra-habitat variability in fish assemblages on Montastraea reefs by identifying how this variability affects the composition and abundances of fishes in different functional groups, the key ecosystem process of parrotfish grazing, and the ecosystem service of value of commercially important finfish. There were significant differences in a range of functional groups and grazing, but not fisheries value. Variability at the scale of tens of kilometers (among reefs around an island) was less than that among islands. Caribbean marine reserves should be replicated at scales of hundreds of kilometers, particularly for species-rich habitats, to capture important intra-habitat variability in community structure, function, and an ecosystem process. 相似文献
77.
78.
K. N. Irvine A. J. Eberhardt 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1992,28(2):385-396
ABSTRACT: Federal agencies in the U.S. and Canada continuously examine methods to improve understanding and forecasting of Great Lakes water level dynamics in an effort to reduce the negative impacts of fluctuating levels incurred by interests using the lakes. The short term, seasonal and long term water level dynamics of lakes Erie and Ontario are discussed. Multiplicative, seasonal ARIMA models are developed for lakes Erie and Ontario using standardized, monthly mean level data for the period 1900 to 1986. The most appropriate model identified for each lake had the general form: (1 0 1)(0 1 1)12. The data for each lake were subdivided by time periods (1900 to 1942;1 943 to 1986) and the model coefficients estimated for the subdivided data were similar, indicating general model stability for the entire period of record. The models estimated for the full data sets were used to forecast levels 1,2,3, and 6 months ahead for a period of high levels (1984 to 1986). The average absolute forecast error for Lake Erie was 0.049m, 0.076m, 0.091 m and 0.128m for the 1, 2,3, and 6 month forecasts, respectively. The average absolute forecast error for Lake Ontario was 0.058m, 0.095m, 0.120m and 0.136m for the 1,2,3, and 6 month forecasts, respectively. The ARIMA models provide additional information on water level time series structure and dynamics. The models also could be coordinated with current forecasting methods, possibly improving forecasting accuracy. 相似文献
79.
Hayato Kihara Aryan L. Fluharty Katherine K. Tsay Ronald P. Bachman John D. Stephens Won G. Ng 《黑龙江环境通报》1983,3(1):29-34
Prenatal diagnosis was performed on a pregnancy at risk for metachromatic leukodystrophy (MLD) in a family with the pseudo arylsulphatase A deficiency trait. Extracts of cultured amniotic fluid cells were deficient in arylsulphatase A indicating that the fetus was either affected with MLD or had the benign pseudodeficiency trait. In the cerebroside sulphate loading test, the at risk cells hydrolysed sulphatide like control cultured amniotic fluid cells implying that the fetus had pseudodeficiency. The pregnancy was carried to term and a male child was delivered. Placenta, urine and fibroblasts had very low activities of arysulphatase A. However, no sulphatide could be detected in urine and growing fibroblasts responded normally in the cerebroside sulphate loading test, suggesting pseudodeficiency. At 29 months, the infant is healthy and shows no stigmata of MLD. The prediction based on the results of the cerebroside sulphate loading test on cultured amniotic fluid cells appeared to be borne out. 相似文献
80.
Vegetation Diversity after Logging in the Southern Appalachians 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1