Developing a translational discourse to communicate uncertainty in flood risk between science and the practitioner

The language and tools of risk and uncertainty estimation in flood risk management (FRM) are rarely optimized for the extant communication challenge. This paper develops the rationale for a pragmatic semiotics of risk communication between scientists developing flood models and forecasts and those professional groups who are the receptors for flood risk estimates and warnings in the UK. The current barriers to effective communication and the constraints involved in the formation of a communication language are explored, focusing on the role of the professional's agenda or "mission" in creating or reducing those constraints. The tools available for the development of this discourse, for both flood warnings in real time and generalized FRM communications, are outlined. It is argued that the contested ownership of the articulation of uncertainties embedded in flood risk communications could be reduced by the development of a formally structured translational discourse between science and professionals in FRM, through which process "codes of practice" for uncertainty estimation in different application areas can be developed. Ways in which this might take place in an institutional context are considered.     

Risk of flood-related mortality in Nepal

In July 1993, severe flooding devastated Sarlahi district in Nepal. The next month, a follow-up study of a large population cohort was undertaken. The study is unique in that a prospective research database was used to verify residency prior to the flood and to confirm vital status afterwards. It evaluated 41,501 children aged between two and nine years and adults aged 15-70 in 7,252 households. Flood-related fatality rates were 13.3 per 1,000 for girls and 9.4 per 1,000 for boys, 6.1 per 1,000 for women and 4.1 per 1,000 for men. Flood-related fatality rates for children were six times higher than mortality rates in the same villages a year before the flood (relative risk (RR) = 5.9, 95 per cent confidence interval (CI) 5.0-6.8). Flood-related fatality was associated with low socio-economic status preflood (RR = 6.4, 95 per cent CI 2.7-20.0), and having a house constructed of thatch (RR = 5.1, 95 per cent CI 1.7-24.5).     

毒代动力学一毒效动力学(Toxicokinetic-Toxicodynamic, Tk-Td)和种群模型联用评价浓度随时间变化的农药的水生态风险

利用种群模型评价农药暴露时间序列的方法与现有常用的风险评价方法进行了比较。美国环境保护局农药项目办公室(The US Environmental Protection Agency’s Office of Pesticide Programs)在近30年对水生生物农药日暴露值建立了模型，但并未对这些信息进行充分的利用。我们利用糠虾(Americamysis bahia)毒性数据和种群数量统计数据推演了毒代动力学一毒效动力学(Toxicokinetic-Toxicodynamic, Tk-Td)与一系列矩阵种群模型联用的数值。糠虾是一种沿岸浅海底的小型甲壳动物，通常用于常规毒性测试中。我们展示了这种联用方法如何仅用现有的标准常规毒性数据来优化已有的风险评价方法。我们创建了几种暴露场景，每种场景在基于生物的传统方法中有着相同的初始风险表征特征，而种群模型方法中则显示出不同的风险水平。这种TK-TD与种群模型联用的方法可以对不同的急性和慢性毒性数据的场景区分出不同的风险水平，而传统的风险评价方法则做不到。这种联用方法在风险评价方面独具优势，特别是针对污染物的暴露浓度随时间变化的情况。 精选自Glen Thursby, Keith Sappington, Matthew Etterson. Coupling Toxicokinetic-Toxicodynamic (Tk-Td) and Population Models for Assessing Aquatic Ecological Risks to Time-Varying Pesticide Exposures. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry,2018,37:2633-2644.
详情请见 https://doi.org/10.1002/etc.4224
     

Using spatially explicit,time-dependent analysis to understand how social factors influence conservation outcomes

Conservation across human-dominated landscapes requires an understanding of the social and ecological factors driving outcomes. Studies that link conservation outcomes to social and ecological factors have examined temporally static patterns. However, there may be different social and ecological processes driving increases and decreases in conservation outcomes that can only be revealed through temporal analyses. Through a case study of the invasion of Falcataria moluccana in Hawaii, we examined the association of social factors with increases and decreases in invader distributions over time and space. Over 7 years, rates of invader decrease varied substantially (66–100%) relative to social factors, such as building value, whether land was privately or publically owned, and primary residence by a homeowner, whereas rates of increase varied only slightly (<0.1–3.6%) relative to such factors. These findings suggest that links between social factors and invasion in the study system may be driven more by landowners controlling existing invasive species, rather than by landowners preventing the spread of invasive species. We suggest that spatially explicit, time-dependent analyses provide a more nuanced understanding of the way social factors influence conservation outcomes. Such an understanding can help managers develop outreach programs and policies targeted at different types of landowners in human-dominated landscapes.     

Integrating Groundwater Conservation and Reuse into Remediation Projects

Groundwater remediation projects generally involve extraction and treatment of contaminated groundwater. The current state of the practice does not include an emphasis on conservation and reuse of groundwater. Consequently treated groundwater is typically disposed in sanitary or storm sewers. Longstanding water conservation and reuse practices in the municipal wastewater industry provide a body of experience available to the remediation industry. Case studies of conservation and reuse options for groundwater at remediation sites have been found across a broad range of geographic settings and regulatory jurisdictions. The intent of this article is to stimulate a more holistic view of the groundwater associated with remediation projects and to promote conservation and beneficial reuse of a vital natural resource. © 2014 US Sustainable Remediation Forum     

An evaluation of the social dimensions in public participation in rural domestic waste source-separated collection in Guilin,China

A comprehensive evaluation of public participation in rural domestic waste (RDW) source-separated collection in China was carried out within a social-dimension framework, specifically in terms of public perception, awareness, attitude, and willingness to pay for RDW management. The evaluation was based on a case study conducted in Guilin, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China, which is a representative of most inland areas of the country with a GDP around the national average. It was found that unlike urban residents, rural residents maintained a high rate of recycling, but in a spontaneous manner; they paid more attention to issues closely related to their daily lives, but less attention to those at the general level; their awareness of RDW source-separated collection was low and different age groups showed significantly different preferences regarding the sources of knowledge acquirement. Among potential information sources, village committees played a very important role in knowledge dissemination; for the respondents’ pro-environmental attitudes, the influencing factor of “lack of legislation/policy” was considered to be significant; mandatory charges for waste collection and disposal had a high rate of acceptance among rural residents; and high monthly incomes had a positive correlation with both public pro-environmental attitudes and public willingness to pay for extra charges levied by RDW management. These observations imply that, for decision-makers in the short term, implementing mandatory RDW source-separated collection programs with enforced guidelines and economic compensation is more effective, while in the long run, promoting pro-environmental education to rural residents is more important.     

Re-examining log law velocity profile in smooth open channel flows

Environmental Fluid Mechanics - A comprehensive investigation of velocity distribution is presented, and the log law is re-examined using experimental data from a smooth uniform open channel flow....