Assessing model structure uncertainty through an analysis of system feedback and Bayesian networks.

Ecological predictions and management strategies are sensitive to variability in model parameters as well as uncertainty in model structure. Systematic analysis of the effect of alternative model structures, however, is often beyond the resources typically available to ecologists, ecological risk practitioners, and natural resource managers. Many of these practitioners are also using Bayesian belief networks based on expert opinion to fill gaps in empirical information. The practical application of this approach can be limited by the need to populate large conditional probability tables and the complexity associated with ecological feedback cycles. In this paper, we describe a modeling approach that helps solve these problems by embedding a qualitative analysis of sign directed graphs into the probabilistic framework of a Bayesian belief network. Our approach incorporates the effects of feedback on the model's response to a sustained change in one or more of its parameters, provides an efficient means to explore the effect of alternative model structures, mitigates the cognitive bias in expert opinion, and is amenable to stakeholder input. We demonstrate our approach by examining two published case studies: a host-parasitoid community centered on a nonnative, agricultural pest of citrus cultivars and the response of an experimental lake mesocosm to nutrient input. Observations drawn from these case studies are used to diagnose alternative model structures and to predict the system's response following management intervention.     

Bioconcentration of nonylphenol in fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas)

Bioconcentration of p-nonylphenol (NP) by fathead minnows was determined under laboratory conditions. Fish were exposed continuously for 42 days to 0.33, 0.93 and 2.36 μgNP/l in a flow-through system. NP was Soxhlet extracted from whole fish homogenates with dichloromethane (DCM). The resulting extract was concentrated and bulk lipids removed by gel permeation and silica-gel chromatography. Compounds were identified and quantified by reverse-phase high-pressure liquid chromatography (RP-HPLC) with fluorescence detection. Mass spectrometry was used for verification of peak assignments. Bioconcentration factors (BCFs) ranged from 245 to 380.     

Fungal inoculum properties: extracellular enzyme expression and pentachlorophenol removal by New Zealand trametes species in contaminated field soils

This study was conducted to improve the ability of indigenous New Zealand white-rot fungi to remove pentachlorophenol (PCP) from contaminated field soil. The effects of different bioaugmentation conditions on PCP removal and extracellular enzyme expression were measured in the laboratory. The conditions were fungal growth substrate and co-substrate composition, culture age, and Tween 80 addition to the contaminated soil. The fungi used were Trametes versicolor isolate HR131 and Trametes sp. isolate HR577. Maximum PCP removal was 70% after 7 wk from a 1043 mg kg(-1) PCP-contaminated soil inoculated with an 11-d-old fungal culture of T. versicolor isolate HR131. There was minimal production of undesirable pentachloroanisole by the fungi. Tween 80 addition had no affect on PCP removal. Poplar sawdust was more suitable as a fungal growth substrate and a co-substrate amendment for PCP removal and extracellular enzyme expression than the locally available pine and fir sawdust. Pentachlorophenol removal was not necessarily correlated with extracellular enzyme expression. The research results demonstrate that PCP biodegradation was affected by inoculum culture age, by the presence of a co-substrate amendment, and by growth substrate composition after white-rot fungal bioaugmentation into PCP-contaminated field soils.     

Aquatic microcosm assessment of the effects of tylosin on Lemna gibba and Myriophyllum spicatum

Tylosin is a macrolide antibiotic commonly used for therapeutic treatment and prophylaxis in livestock. As part of a larger ecotoxicological study, the potential phytotoxic effects of tylosin on the rooted macrophyte Myriophyllum spicatum and the floating macrophyte Lemna gibba were assessed under semi-field conditions using 15 12 000-L microcosms. Concentrations of 0, 10, 30, 300 microg/L (n = 3), and 600, 1000, and 3000 microg/L (n = 1) were evaluated as part of separate ANOVA and regression analyses over an exposure period of 35 days. Fate of tylosin was monitored over time in the highest three treatments, where dissipation followed pseudo-first order kinetics with associated half-lives ranging from 9 to 10 days. For both M. spicatum and L. gibba, tylosin was found to cause no biologically significant changes to any endpoint assessed compared to controls at a Type I error rate of 0.1. However, subsequent power analyses revealed that there was generally insufficient power to declare that there were no significant differences at a Type II error rate of 0.2. Conclusions concerning biologically significant impacts were therefore further assessed based on other statistical criteria including comparisons of percent differences between replicated treatments and controls, minimum significant and minimum detectable differences, and coefficients of variation. Based on these criteria, at an ecological effect size of >20% change, tylosin was concluded to elicit no biologically or ecologically significant toxicity to M. spicatum or L. gibba. A hazard quotient assessment indicated that tylosin poses little risk to either species of macrophyte, with an HQ value calculated to be nearly three orders of magnitude below 1 (0.002).     

WOODFUEL - A TIME FOR RE-ASSESSMENT

Official statistics and surveys show that woodfuel is the dominant end-use of forest products especially in developing countries. This paper examines the end-use pattern and per capita consumption figures for selected developing countries. In terms of total energy requirements woodfuel, a renewable resource, is the third most important fuel after oil and coal, but may be the primary fuel in terms of number of actual consumers. The future consumption pattern is estimated for the developing and developed countries and it is anticipated that total woodfuel consumption may increase by about 2 per cent per year at least until the year 2000. The supply position shows that while present consumption of all forest products is more or less in balance with the increment of the growing stock, in certain areas the forest capital is being depleted to meet demand. Total demand is likely to double by the turn of the century. Therefore, plantations, especially of fuelwood, will have to be established if the growing stock is not to be depleted and if an energy crisis in developing countries is to be averted.