Intervention analysis in environmental engineering

Intervention analysis techniques are described for identifying and statistically modelling trends which may be present in water quality time series. At the exploratory data analysis stage, simple graphical and modelling methods can be employed for visually detecting and examining trends in a time series caused by one or more external interventions. For instance, a plot of a robust locally weighted regression smooth through a graph of the observations over time may reveal trends and other interesting statistical properties contained in the time series. In addition, statistical tests, such as different versions of the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test, can be used to detect the presence of trends caused by unknown or known external interventions. To characterize rigorously and estimate trends which may be known in advance or else detected using exploratory data analysis studies, different parametric methods can be utilized at the confirmatory data analysis stage. Specifically, the time series modelling approach to intervention analysis can be employed to estimate the magnitudes of the changes in the mean level of the series due to the interventions. Particular types of regression models can also be used for estimating trends, especially when there are many missing observations. To demonstrate how intervention analysis methods can be effectively used in environmental impact assessment, representative applications to water quality time series are presented.Invited Paper for Presentation at The Workshop on Statistical Methods for the Assessment of Point Source Pollution, The Canada Centre for Inland Waters, Burlington, Ontario, Canada, L7R 4A6, September 12–14, 1988.     

Solubilization, solution equilibria, and biodegradation of PAH's under thermophilic conditions

Biodegradation rates of PAHs are typically low at mesophilic conditions and it is believed that the kinetics of degradation is controlled by PAH solubility and mass transfer rates. Solubility tests were performed on phenanthrene, fluorene and fluoranthene at 20 degrees C, 40 degrees C and 60 degrees C and, as expected, a significant increase in the equilibrium solubility concentration and of the rate of dissolution of these polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) was observed with increasing temperature. A first-order model was used to describe the PAH dissolution kinetics and the thermodynamic property changes associated with the dissolution process (enthalpy, entropy and Gibb's free energy of solution) were evaluated. Further, other relevant thermodynamic properties for these PAHs, including the activity coefficients at infinite dilution, Henry's law constants and octanol-water partition coefficients, were calculated in the temperature range 20-60 degrees C. In parallel with the dissolution studies, three thermophilic Geobacilli were isolated from compost that grew on phenanthrene at 60 degrees C and degraded the PAH more rapidly than other reported mesophiles. Our results show that while solubilization rates of PAHs are significantly enhanced at elevated temperatures, the biodegradation of PAHs under thermophilic conditions is likely mass transfer limited due to enhanced degradation rates.     

Conflicts between biodiversity conservation and human activities in the central and eastern European countries

Conflicts between the conservation of biodiversity and other human activities have been and continue to be of increasing concern in the European Union, often having important political, economic, and environmental repercussions. These conflicts have been addressed in the European Union by using a wide array of top down and bottom up tools, with varying degrees of success. A new challenge is now facing Europe with the integration of 10 new countries in the European Union (EU) and an additional range of biodiversity-rich habitats placed under EU legislation. The rich biodiversity of the central and eastern European countries (CEEC) is likely to be threatened by some aspects of the integration process, and conflicts between the conservation of biodiversity and other human activities are expected. In this paper, we review certain existing conflicts between biodiversity conservation and human activities in the CEEC, expected conflicts associated with integration to the EU, particularly in terms of new policy and legislation implementation, and, finally, explore possible conflict management options.     

Selection on worker honeybee responses to queen pheromone (Apis mellifera L.)

 Disruptive selection for responsiveness to queen mandibular gland pheromone (QMP) in the retinue bioassay resulted in the production of high and low QMP responding strains of honeybees (Apis mellifera L.). Strains differed significantly in their retinue response to QMP after one generation of selection. By the third generation the high strain was on average at least nine times more responsive than the low strain. The strains showed seasonal phenotypic plasticity such that both strains were more responsive to the pheromone in the spring than in the fall. Directional selection for low seasonal variation indicated that phenotypic plasticity was an additional genetic component to retinue response to QMP. Selection for high and low retinue responsiveness to QMP was not an artifact of the synthetic blend because both strains were equally responsive or non-responsive to whole mandibular gland extracts compared with QMP. The use of these strains clearly pointed to an extra-mandibular source of retinue pheromones (Pankiw et al. 1995; Slessor et al. 1998; Keeling et al. 1999). Received: 2 March 2000 / Accepted in revised form: 4 September 2000     

Seasonal changes in the diet of a critically endangered seabird and the importance of trawling discards

Pelagic seabirds obtain food from oceans where the availability of their prey changes rapidly both seasonally and spatially. Here, we investigated changes in the trophic habits of the critically endangered Balearic shearwater (Puffinus mauretanicus) through the breeding season and tested for dietary differences between sexes and age classes. We analysed δ¹⁵N and δ¹³C values in blood of adults during the pre-incubation, incubation and chick-rearing periods and of their chicks. Using a two-isotope mixing model, we estimated dietary contributions based on isotope values from potential prey species which included small pelagic species available naturally and demersal fish species available only from trawling discards. Balearic shearwaters showed clear isotopic and dietary variation through the breeding season. During pre-incubation, breeding adults appeared to exploit demersal fish, whereas during the incubation and chick-rearing period, they fed mainly on pelagic anchovies (Engraulis encrasicolus) and pilchards (Sardina pilchardus). Similarly, chicks were fed mainly with anchovies, a resource with a high energetic value. This variation in the dietary habits of adult shearwaters during the breeding season was probably related to both natural and fishery-induced seasonal changes in the availability of potential prey species within their main feeding grounds. However, changes in the nutritional requirements of the shearwaters could also play an important role. Indeed, diet differed between sexes during pre-incubation: females fed less on trawling discards and more on small pelagic fish than males. This sexual segregation in diet could be the consequence of higher nutritional requirements of females during this period. Our study reveals the differential importance of both trawling discards and small pelagic fish species for a pelagic seabird depending on the breeding period and illustrates the importance of considering the entire breeding season when making inferences about the importance of specific prey in seabird dietary studies.     

FARM-LEVEL MANAGEMENT OF DEEP PERCOLATION EMISSIONS IN IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE1

ABSTRACT: Source control costs for deep percolation emissions from irrigated agriculture are analyzed using a farm-level model. Crop area, irrigation system and applied water are chosen to maximize the net benefits of agricultural production while accounting for the environmental damages and disposal costs of those emissions. Deep percolation is progressively reduced as environmental and disposal costs are increased. This occurs primarily through the adoption of more efficient irrigation technology and reductions in applied water for a given technology Higher surface water prices, such as through irrigation reform and constrained surface supplies, are additionally considered in light of the drainage problem, as are the effects, both short- and long-term, on ground water use.     

Indirect effects of soil invertebrates on litter decomposition: Elaboration via analysis of a tundra model

Indirect effects of soil invertebrates on litter decomposition in arctic coastal tundra were examined by means of a cross control option in a linear carbon flow model. Systems analysis and simulated field experiments generated predictions about soil systems containing invertebrate effects as modeled. Fauna were found to be several times more important per gram than microflora in causing higher cycling efficiency and more even resource distribution within the model. Detritus enrichment decreased evennes of resource distribution without affecting cycling efficiency. Hypotheses were generated which, if supported by field data, would help confirm the rationale used in model construction.     

Examination of the bioaccumulation of halogenated dimethyl bipyrroles in an Arctic marine food web using stable nitrogen isotope analysis.

Concentrations of four possibly naturally produced organohalogens--1,1'-dimethyl-3,3',4-tribromo-4,5,5'-trichloro-2,2'-bipyrrole (DBP-Br3Cl3), 1,1'-dimethyl-3,3',4,4'-tetrabromo-5,5'-dichloro-2,2'-bipyrrole (DBP-Br4Cl2), 1,1'-dimethyl-3,3',4,4',5-pentabromo-5'-chloro-2,2'-bipyrrole (DBP-Br5Cl) and 1,1'-dimethyl-3,3',4,4',5,5'-hexabromo-2,2'-bipyrrole (DBP-Br6)--were quantitated and the extent of their magnification through an entire Arctic marine food web [measured as integrated trophic magnification factors (TMFs)] were calculated. The food web consisted of three zooplankton species (Calanus hyperboreus, Mysis oculata, and Sagitta sp.), one fish species [Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida)], four seabird species [dovekie (Alle alle), black guillemot (Cepphus grylle), black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla), and glaucous gull (Larus hyperboreus)], and one marine mammal species [ringed seal (Phoca hispida)]. Trophic levels in the food web were calculated from ratios of stable isotopes of nitrogen (15N/14N). All halogenated dimethyl bipyrrole (HDBP) congeners were found to significantly (P<0.02) biomagnify, or increase in concentration with trophic level in the invertebrate--fish--seabird food web. DBP-Br4Cl2 (TMF= 14.6) was found to biomagnify to a greater extent than DBP-Br3Cl3 (TMF = 5.2), DBP-Br5Cl (TMF = 6.9), or DBP-Br6 (TMF = 7.0), even though the Kow of DBP-Br4CI2 was predicted to be lower than those of DBP-Br5Cl and DBP-Br6. None of the four HDBP congeners in ringed seals followed the general trend of increasing concentration with trophic level, which was possibly due to an ability of the seals to metabolize HDBPs.     

Sustainable Development: A Transdisciplinary Overview of the Literature

The literature on sustainable development has burgeoned. Over the past decade, concern about sustainability has been raised within such a wide range of social and natural science discourses that a comprehensive overview of this work is hard to find. Literature reviews that are available typically have a disciplinary focus-such as ecological economics or environmental science-or they have an applied social science/ policy emphasis. This paper bridges the multiple discourses by arraying them as interlocked parts of a grand puzzle. Ten fields of discourse are identified and conceptually mapped. The review is critical, yet constructive. It outlines a political ecology of sustainable development by articulating four key challenges concerning: (1) holism and co-evolution; (2) social justice and equity; (3) empowerment and community building; and (4) sustainable production and reproduction.