Temporal Changes in Allele Frequencies and a Population's History of Severe Bottlenecks

Monitoring temporal changes in genetic variation has been suggested as a means of determining if a population has experienced a demographic bottleneck. Simulations have shown that the variance in allele frequencies over time ( F ) can provide reasonable estimates of effective population size ( N_e ). This relationship between F and N_e suggests that changes in allele frequencies may provide a way to determine the severity of recent demographic bottlenecks experienced by a population. We examined allozyme variation in experimental populations of the eastern mosquitofish ( Gambusia holbrooki ) to evaluate the relationship between the severity of demographic bottlenecks and temporal variation in allele frequencies. Estimates of F from both the fish populations and computer simulations were compared to expected rates of drift. We found that different methods for estimating F had little effect on the analysis. The variance in estimates of F was large among both experimental and simulated populations experiencing similar demographic bottlenecks. Temporal changes in allele frequencies suggested that the experimental populations had experienced bottlenecks, but there was no relationship between observed and expected values of F . Furthermore, genetic drift was likely to be underestimated in populations experiencing the most severe bottlenecks. The weak relationship between F and bottleneck severity is probably due to both sampling error associated with the number of polymorphic loci examined and the loss of alleles during the bottlenecks. For populations that may have experienced severe bottlenecks, caution should be used in making evolutionary interpretations or management recommendations based on temporal changes in allele frequencies.     

THE IMPACT OF FLOODPLAIN REGULATIONS ON RESIDENTIAL LAND VALUES IN OREGON1

ABSTRACT: The impact of floodplain regulations on mean appreciation rates of residential land values was tested at six study areas in five counties in western Oregon. The study hypothesis that such regulations significantly depress appreciation rates of regulated lands relative to those of similar unregulated lands was in most cases rejected. When the hypothesis was accepted circumstances would render conclusions tenuous. The problems and issues facing this type of research are presented in case studies of two of the research study areas. The following factors challenge investigators seeking to resolve questions about the relationship between land use regulations and land values: varying degrees of stringency with which regulations are enforced; unequal assessment procedures between counties; influences external to floodplain regulations that may affect appreciation rates, including denial of permits for septic tanks, flood damages, and amenity values associated with waterfront locations; and the uncertain effect that the availability of flood insurance, which accompanies floodplain regulations, has on land values.     

Forest-user attitudes toward alternative fire management policies

The formulation and implementation of new fire policies in the national forests depend upon public acceptance. A national survey of organized groups of forest users indicates that, contrary to the concern of many forest managers, considerable support exists for flexible fire suppression policies. Forest users are also willing to accept the risk associated with the manager's use of prescribed fire. However, important intergroup differences do exist. Such variation is discussed in relation to a number of socioeconomic variables, general fire knowledge, specific knowledge about the effects of low-intensity fires, and risk preference levels.     

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS IN PERSPECTIVE1

ABSTRACT: By employing a set of criteria for classifying the capabilities of time series models, recent developments in time series analysis are assessed and put into proper perspective. In particular, the inherent attributes of a wide variety of time series models and modeling procedures presented by the authors of the 18 papers contained in this volume are clearly pointed out. Additionally, it is explained how these models can address many of the time series problems encountered when modeling hydrologic, water quality and other kinds of time series. For instance, families of time series models are now available for modeling series which may contain nonlinearities or may follow nonGaussian distributions. Based upon a sound physical understanding of a problem and results from exploratory data analyses, the most appropriate model to fit to a data set can be found during confirmatory data analyses by following the identification, estimation and diagnostic check stages of model construction. Promising future research projects for developing flexible classes of time series models for use in water resources applications are suggested.     

CONTEMPORANEOUS AUTOREGRESSIVE-MOVING AVERAGE (CARMA) MODELING IN WATER RESOURCES1

ABSTRACT: The Contemporaneous Autoregressive-Moving Average (CARMA) model is a simple and efficient model that can be used to fit many multivariate hydrological time series. For certain types of multistation river flow systems, the CARMA model is naturally obtained when the physical restrictions of the system or the characteristics of the data are taken in consideration during the formulation of the model. It is shown how the CARMA model can optimally be used to handle multiple time series where the number of observations in each series may be different. Adequate model building techniques, as well as computational and statistical efficient algorithms to estimate the parameters of the model, are given. The methodologies and applications of the CARMA model are illustrated with three examples. It is also shown how the full multivariate ARMA model may lead to losses in efficient of the estimators when the CARMA model is adequate.     

A RATIONALE FOR THE REGIONALIZATION OF PUBLIC WATER SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT. A rationale is set forth for requiring and/or encouraging the consolidation or regionalization of all systems beneath certain population size levels based on the small water systems’ capability to produce an adequate supply of safe drinking water at a reasonable cost to customers. Estimates for basic costs of water service including personnel, other operation and maintenance and capital are made and a range of water rates is suggested based on reasonableness and acceptability to customers. Guidelines are then drawn for a moderate rate of $10.00 per month and an upper limit rate of $15.00 per month to show the sizes at which public water systems might be expected to achieve fiscal viability. Finally, recommendations are made to State and Federal governmental agencies concerning possible legislation, plans and programs to achieve better public water service through the regionalization or consolidation of small public water systems.     

REUSE OF AGRICULTURAL DRAINAGE WATERS: AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT The profitability of reusing agricultural drainage water for crop production depends on the salt tolerance of the crop being grown the salt concentration of the drainage water, the cost of obtaining it and price of good water. In the this paper the economics of drainwater resue is examined for six crops in two areas of southern California. The results suggest that drainwater reuse is not profitable for the fruit and vegetable crops considered but is profitable for the field crops considered when the price of good water is relatively high and cost of obtaining the draingage water is low.     

Mercury bioaccumulation in organisms from three Puerto Rican estuaries

We analyzed mercury levels in shrimp (Palaemonetes sp.), Blue Crabs (Callinectes sp.), fish (Tarpon Megalops atlantica and Tilapia Tilapia mossambica), lizards (Ameiva exsul), Cattle Egret (Bubulcus ibis) and Moorhen (Gallinula chloropus) in three estuaries in Puerto Rico in 1988. There were no quantifiable concentrations greater than the method detection limit of mercury in shrimp, crabs and lizards from any site. Mercury levels were also below detection limits in Tilapia, except for specimens collected at Frontera Creek, allegedly contaminated with mercury. However, mercury levels ranged from 92–238 g/kg (wet weight) in Tarpon, a predaceous fish that feeds on smaller fish. Few of the birds had detectable levels of mercury. Our results indicate relatively low concentrations of mercury in biota collected in all of the three estuaries at most trophic levels, although 10 of 12 Tarpon fillet samples from Frontera had detectable mercury compared to 3 of 12 fillet samples for the other two lagoons.This project was partially funded by an EPA consent decree (Dynamac, Inc.) and NIEHS grant (ESO 5022) to EOSHI.