Evaluating multiple emission pathways for fixed cumulative carbon dioxide emissions from global-scale socioeconomic perspectives

Recent climate modeling studies have concluded that cumulative carbon emissions determine temperature increase, regardless of emission pathways. Accordingly, the optimal emission pathway can be determined from a socioeconomic standpoint. To access the path dependence of socioeconomic impacts for cumulative carbon emissions, we used a computable general equilibrium model to analyze impacts on major socioeconomic indicators on a global scale for 30–50 pathways with different emission reduction starting years, different subsequent emission pathways, and three different cumulative 2100 emission scenarios (emissions that meet the 2 °C target, the 2 °C target emissions plus 10 %, and emissions producing radiative forcing of 4.5 W/m²). The results show that even with identical cumulative emission figures, the resulting socioeconomic impacts vary by the pathway realized. For the United Nations 2 °C target, for example, (a) the 95 % confidence interval of cumulative global gross domestic product (GDP) is 1355–1363 trillion US dollars (2010–2100, discount rate = 5 %), (b) the cumulative GDP of pathways with later emission reduction starting years grows weaker (5 % significance level), and (c) emissions in 2100 have a moderate negative correlation with cumulative GDP. These results suggest that GDP loss is minimized with pathways with earlier emission reduction followed by more moderate reduction rates to achieve lower emission levels. Consequently, we suggest an early emission peak to meet the stringent target. In our model setting, it is desirable for emissions to peak by 2020 to reduce mitigation cost and by 2030 at the latest to meet the 2 °C target.     

区间数多属性决策在飞机一发失效应急程序方案优选中的应用

针对在飞机一发失效应急程序方案的选择中,很多定量因素难以精确量化的问题,将区间数多属性决策运用到飞机一发失效应急程序方案的优选中,构建了评价指标体系。此评价指标体系应用基于理想解的区间数多属性决策的相对隶属度法来选择最佳方案,该方法通过计算并查找现有方案的相对隶属度最大值来确定最佳方案。最后举例说明如何在实际中使用此方法。     

Prenatal interphase FISH diagnosis of PLP1 duplication associated with Pelizaeus–Merzbacher disease

A submicroscopic genomic duplication in Xq22.2 that contains the entire proteolipid protein 1 gene (PLP1) is responsible for the majority of Pelizaeus–Merzbacher disease (PMD) patients. We previously developed an interphase FISH assay to screen for PLP1 duplications in PMD patients using peripheral blood and lymphoblastoid cell lines. This assay has been utilized as a clinical diagnostic test in our cytogenetics laboratory. To expand usage of the interphase FISH assay to prenatal diagnosis of PLP1 duplications, we examined three PMD families with PLP1 duplications utilizing aminiotic fluid samples. In two families the FISH assay revealed fetuses with PLP1 duplications, whereas the other fetus showed a normal copy number of PLP1. Haplotype analyses, as well as an additional FISH analysis using postnatal blood samples, confirmed the results of the prenatal analyses. Our study demonstrates utility of the interphase FISH assay in the prenatal diagnosis of PLP1 duplications in PMD. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Residential Proximity to Industrial Sources of Air Pollution: Interrelationships among Race,Poverty, and Age

ABSTRACT

This study builds on earlier work investigating statistical relationships between sociodemographic characteristics of populations and their residential proximity to industrial sources of air pollution. The analysis uses demographic data from the 1990 U.S. Census and industrial site data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s 1990 Toxics Release Inventory (TRI). The focus is on examining interactions among race (African Americans and Whites), poverty (above and below household poverty threshold), and age (children from birth to 5 years of age and elderly people 65 years old or older). Results from three different study areas (Kanawha Valley in West Virginia, the Baton Rouge-New Orleans Corridor in Louisiana, and the greater Baltimore metropolitan area in Maryland) suggest there are important interactions among race, poverty, and age that are likely to have consequential ramifications for efforts aimed at investigating issues related to environmental justice. Our results indicate that a substantial proportion of all demographic groups studied live within a mile of the nearest facility, with values ranging from 22% of Whites above poverty in the Baton Rouge-New Orleans Corridor to 60% of African Americans below poverty in Baltimore. Likewise, a substantial proportion of all demographic groups also live within 2 miles of four or more industrial facilities, with values ranging from 16% for Whites above poverty in the Corridor to 70% for African Americans below poverty in Baltimore. In all three study areas, African Americans were more likely than Whites to (1) live in households with incomes below the household poverty line, (2) have children 5 years of age or younger, (3) live closer to the nearest industrial emissions source, and (4) live within 2 miles of multiple industrial emission sources. Findings indicate that, compared with White children, a substantially higher proportion of African-American children 5 years of age or younger lived in poor households that were located in relatively close proximity to one or more industrial sources of air pollution.     

Assessment of decadal changes in sediment contamination in a large connecting channel (Detroit River,North America)

Concentrations of selected heavy metals (Cd, Cu, Hg, Pb, Zn) and organic contaminants (PCBs, PAHs) were investigated in samples from the Detroit River (Great Lakes, North America) in 1999 and 2008/09 collected using a stratified random sampling design. Getis–Ord geospatial analysis was used to further establish locations of areas demonstrating significantly high and low contaminant concentrations in the river. Based on the stratified random sampling design, a majority of the examined metals and organic contaminants demonstrated little or no trends with respect to regional sediment concentrations and river-wide mass balances over the investigated time interval. The Getis–Ord analysis revealed local scales of contaminated and clean areas which did not conform to the original strata used in the geostatistical sampling design. It is suggested that geospatial analyses such as Getis–Ord be used in the design of future sediment quality surveys to refine locations of strata that can simultaneously address sediment recovery over system-wide, regional and local spatial scales.     

Anthropogenic pollution and variability of manganese in alluvial sediments of the Yellow River,Ningxia, northwest China

Heavy metal pollution of sediments is a global concern and can be a serious problem in heavily industrialized parts of the world. Pollution by manganese is particularly common due to its ubiquitous natural occurrence, ease of mobilization, and extensive association with industry. In Ningxia, China, manganese pollution of Yellow River alluvial sediments was assessed by comparing manganese concentrations in 35 sediment samples with background values derived from similar sediments obtained at sites considered remote from potential sources of contamination. Natural background values of manganese were found to range from 192 to 323 mg/kg for surface sediments, and from 220 to 325 and 283 to 394 mg/kg for subsurface sediments at depths of 45–50 and 95–100 cm, respectively. In the study area, manganese content ranged from 565 to 1,363 mg/kg, indicating anthropogenic pollution extending to a depth of at least 1 m in the study area. All 35 samples were found to exceed the threshold effect concentration (TEC) of 460 mg/kg, below which adverse effects on sediment-dwelling organisms are not expected to occur, and one sample (T12) was found to exceed the probable effect concentration (PEC) of 1,100 mg/kg. PEC defines the threshold above which adverse effects are likely to be observed. Variogram analysis of the surface sediment manganese data revealed adherence to a Gaussian model, and ordinary kriging was used to generate a manganese distribution map. Analysis of the high nugget effect ratio indicates high, small-scale variations that are consistent with potential emissions from an adjacent electrolytic manganese plant.     

Spatial and temporal population dynamics of the crown-of-thorns starfish,Acanthaster planci,over a 24-year period along the central west coast of Okinawa Island,Japan

Boom and bust dynamics are a prominent characteristic of the crown-of-thorns starfish (Acanthaster planci) populations. Outbreaking starfish populations damage coral communities extensively and then often disappear quickly. In contrast, Onna village, on the central west coast of Okinawa Island, Japan, has been experiencing chronically high population densities of A. planci for decades. In this study, we examined spatial and temporal population dynamics of A. planci along the coast of Onna village, using removal data gathered over 24 years by a local fisheries cooperative. The results demonstrate that A. planci populations along the Onna coast often experienced high densities prior to 2003 and that recently, populations have again been increasing drastically. Size-frequency distributions suggest multiple, successive recruitment, as one of the driving factors maintaining A. planci populations in this location. Moreover, within the Onna area, the timing of outbreak peaks varied among different locations, showing a northward progression.