应对不确定性:呼吁建立新的科学政策论坛

科学界和政策界具有不同的目标,这就自然导致了对构成某种变化或现象的"检验"标准的差异,以及用不同的方法去描述不确定性和风险的持性及传达不确定性和风险.这些差异可能损害科学家、决策者和公众之间的有效沟通,同时也限制了科学家所愿意研究的社会紧迫问题的类型.本文主要回顾了一系列处理不确定性问题的方法,阐述了当科学和政策不能很好协调时所可能引起的一些错误.并在此基础上,特别针对解决不确定性问题提出了一些具体建议,包括重构科学规范,建立由科学、政策两方面领导广泛参加的科学政策论坛.     

Continuous-time capture-recapture population estimation when capture probabilities vary over time

Closed capture-recapture (CR) estimators have been used extensively to estimate population size. Most closed CR approaches have been developed and evaluated for discrete-time models, but there has been little effort to evaluate their continuous-time counterparts. Continuous-time estimators — developed using maximum likelihood theory by Craig (1953) and Darroch (1958), and martingale theory by Becker (1984) — that allow capture probabilities to vary over time were evaluated using Monte Carlo simulation. Overall, the ML estimators had a smaller MSE. The estimators performed well when model assumptions were upheld, and were somewhat robust to heterogeneity in capture probabilities. However, the estimators were not robust to behavioural effects in the capture probabilities. Time lag effects (periods when animals might be unavailable for immediate recapture) on continuous-time estimates were also investigated and results indicated a positive bias which was greater for smaller populations. There was no gain in performance when using a continuous-time estimator versus a discrete-time estimator on the same simulated data. Usefulness of the continuous-time approach may be limited to study designs where animals are easier to sample using continuous-time methodology.     

Lack of detectable nepotism in multiple-queen colonies of the fire ant Solenopsis invicta (Hymenoptera: Formicidae)

Multiple-queen (polygyne) colonies of the introduced fire ant Solenopsis invicta present a paradox for kin selection theory. Egg-laying queens within these societies are, on average, unrelated to one another, and the numbers of queens per colony are high, so that workers appear to raise new sexuals that are no more closely related to them than are random individuals in the population. This paradox could be resolved if workers discriminate between related and unrelated nestmate sexuals in important fitness-related contexts. This study examines the possibility of such nepotism using methods that combine the following features: (1) multiple relevant behavioral assays, (2) colonies with an unmanipulated family structure, (3) multiple genetic markers with no known phenotypic effects, and (4) a statistical technique for distinguishing between nepotism and potentially confounding phenomena. We estimated relatedness between interactants in polygyne S. invicta colonies in two situations, workers tending egg-laying queens and workers feeding maturing winged queens. In neither case did we detect a significant positive value of relatedness that would implicate nepotism. We argue that the non-nepotistic strategies displayed by these ants reflect historical selection pressures experienced by native populations, in which nestmate queens are highly related to one another. The markedly different genetic structure in native populations may favor the operation of stronger higher-level selection that effectively opposes weaker individual-level selection for nepotistic interactions within nests. Received: 28 June 1996 / Accepted after revision: 6 October 1996     

Shifting foraging strategies in colonies of the social wasp Polybia occidentalis (Hymenoptera, Vespidae)

Social insect colonies can be expected to forage at rates that maximize colony fitness. Foraging at higher rates would increase the rate of worker production, but decrease adult survival. This trade-off has particular significance during the founding stage, when adults lost are not replaced. Prior work has shown that independent-founding wasps rear the first workers rapidly by foraging at high rates. Foraging rates decrease after those individuals pupate, presumably reducing the risk of foundress death. In the swarm-founding wasps, colony-founding units have many workers, making colony death by forager attrition less likely. Do swarm-founding wasps show similar shifts in foraging rates during the founding stage? We measured foraging rates of the swarm-founding wasp, Polybia occidentalis at four stages of colony development. At each stage, foraging rates correlated with the number of larvae present, which, in the founding stages, correlated with the number of cells in the new nest. Thus, foraging rates appear to be demand-driven, with the level of demand in the founding stage set by the size of nest that is constructed. During the founding stage, foraging rates per larva were high initially, suggesting that colonies minimize the development times of larvae early in the founding stage. Later in the stage, foraging rates decreased, which would reduce worker mortality until new workers eclose. This pattern is similar to that shown for independent-founding wasps and likely results from conflicting pressures to maximize colony growth and minimize the risk of colony death by forager attrition.     

Nitrate uptake by the reef coral Diploria strigosa: effects of concentration, water flow, and irradiance

The effects of several environmental variables on net nitrate uptake by the scleractinian coral Diploria strigosa were investigated under controlled flow conditions. D. strigosa exhibited nitrate uptake rates ranging from 1 to 5 nmol cm⁻² h⁻¹ at ambient concentrations of 0.1–0.3 μM that are typical of oligotrophic reefs such as Bermuda. Net uptake ceased at approximately 0.045 μM. The uptake was positively correlated with concentration up to a saturation concentration of approximately 3 μM. The uptake was also positively correlated with water velocity at 1 μM, but not at 6 μM, suggesting diffusional limitation at low concentrations and kinetic limitation at higher concentrations. Nitrate uptake by D. strigosa was not affected by light intensity or time of day, but was almost completely inhibited by 48 h exposure to ammonium levels found on many reefs.     

The properties of emulsifiers that enhance the replication of viruses in cell cultures

Some of a variety of commercial emulsifiers were capable of enhancing the sensitivity of mammalian cells in culture to infection with several viruses. Those viruses which were enhanced in their replication were single-stranded RNA viruses whereas the double-stranded viruses tested were non-responders. In addition, some cells lines, as compared to others, responded in a more sensitive manner to the active emulsifiers.     

Semicontinuous PM2.5 sulfate and nitrate measurements at an urban and a rural location in New York: PMTACS-NY summer 2001 and 2002 campaigns

Several collocated semicontinuous instruments measuring particulate matter with particle sizes < or =2.5 microm (PM2.5) sulfate (SO4(2-)) and nitrate (NO3-) were intercompared during two intensive field campaigns as part of the PM2.5 Technology Assessment and Characterization Study. The summer 2001 urban campaign in Queens, NY, and the summer 2002 rural campaign in upstate New York (Whiteface Mountain) hosted an operation of an Aerosol Mass Spectrometer, Ambient Particulate Sulfate and Nitrate Monitors, a Continuous Ambient Sulfate Monitor, and a Particle-Into-Liquid Sampler with Ion Chromatographs (PILS-IC). These instruments provided near real-time particulate SO4(2-) and NO3- mass concentration data, allowing the study of particulate SO4(2-)/NO3- diurnal patterns and detection of short-term events. Typical particulate SO4(2-) concentrations were comparable at both sites (ranging from 0 to 20 microg/m3), while ambient urban particulate NO3- concentrations ranged from 0 to 11 microg/m3 and rural NO3- concentration was typically less than 1 microg/m3. Results of the intercomparisons of the semicontinuous measurements are presented, as are results of the comparisons between the semicontinuous and time-integrated filter-based measurements. The comparisons at both sites, in most cases, indicated similar performance characteristics. In addition, charge balance calculations, based on major soluble ionic components of atmospheric aerosol from the PILS-IC and the filter measurements, indicated slightly acidic aerosol at both locations.     

The benefits of lower ozone due to air pollution emission reductions (2002–2011) in the Eastern United States during extreme heat

ABSTRACT

Using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model and the Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program – Community Edition (BenMAP-CE) tool, we estimate the benefits of anthropogenic emission reductions between 2002 and 2011 in the Eastern United States (US) with respect to surface ozone concentrations and ozone-related health and economic impacts, during a month of extreme heat, July 2011. Based on CMAQ simulations using emissions appropriate for 2002 and 2011, we estimate that emission reductions since 2002 likely prevented 10– 15 ozone exceedance days (using the 2011 maximum 8-hr average ozone standard of 75 ppbv) throughout the Ohio River Valley and 5– 10 ozone exceedance days throughout the Washington, DC – Baltimore, MD metropolitan area during this extremely hot month. CMAQ results were fed into the BenMAP-CE tool to determine the health and health-related economic benefits of anthropogenic emission reductions between 2002 and 2011. We estimate that the concomitant health benefits from the ozone reductions were significant for this anomalous month: 160–800 mortalities (95% confidence interval (CI): 70–1,010) were avoided in July 2011 in the Eastern U.S, saving an estimated $1.3–$6.6 billion (CI: $174 million–$15.5 billion). Additionally, we estimate that emission reductions resulted in 950 (CI: 90–2,350) less hospital admissions from respiratory symptoms, 370 (CI: 180–580) less hospital admissions for pneumonia, 570 (CI: 0–1650) less Emergency Room (ER) visits from asthma symptoms, 922,020 (CI: 469,960–1,370,050) less minor restricted activity days (MRADs), and 430,240 (CI: ?280,350–963,190) less symptoms of asthma exacerbation during July 2011.

Implications: We estimate the benefits of air pollution emission reductions on surface ozone concentrations and ozone-related impacts on human health and the economy between 2002 and 2011 during an extremely hot month, July 2011, in the eastern United States (US) using the CMAQ and BenMAP-CE models. Results suggest that, during July 2011, emission reductions prevented 10-15 ozone exceedance days in the Ohio River Valley and 5-10 ozone exceedance days in the Mid Atlantic; saved 160-800 lives in the Eastern US, saving $1.3 - $6.5 billion; and resulted in 950 less hospital admissions for respiratory symptoms, 370 less hospital admissions for pneumonia, 570 less Emergency Room visits for asthma symptoms, 922,020 less minor restricted activity days, and 430,240 less symptoms of asthma exacerbation.