Response of balanced network models to large-scale perturbation: Implications for evaluating the role of small pelagics in the Gulf of Maine

Exploring the response of an ecosystem, and subsequent tradeoffs among its biological community, to human perturbations remains a key challenge for the implementation of an ecosystem approaches to fisheries (EAF). To address this and related issues, we developed two network (or energy budget) models, Ecopath and Econetwrk, for the Gulf of Maine ecosystem. These models included 31 network “nodes” or biomass state variables across a broad range of trophic levels, with the present emphasis to particularly elucidate the role of small pelagics. After initial network balancing, various perturbation scenarios were evaluated to explore how potential changes to different fish, fisheries and lower trophic levels can affect model outputs. Categorically across all scenarios and interpretations thereof, there was minimal change at the second trophic levels and most of the “rebalancing” after a perturbation occurred via alteration of the diet matrix. Yet the model results from perturbations to a balanced energy budget fall into one of three categories. First, some model results were intuitive and in obvious agreement with established ecological and fishing theory. Second, some model results were counter-intuitive upon initial observation, seemingly contradictory to known ecological and fishing theory; but upon further examination the results were explainable given the constraints of an equilibrium energy budget. Finally, some results were counter-intuitive and difficult to reconcile with theory or further examination of equilibrium constraints. A detailed accounting of biomass flows for example scenarios explores some of the non-intuitive results more rigorously. Collectively these results imply a need to carefully track biomass flows and results of any given perturbation and to critically evaluate the conditions under which a new equilibrium is obtained for these types of models, which has implications for dynamic simulations based off of them. Given these caveats, the role of small pelagics as a prominent component of this ecosystem remains a robust conclusion. We discuss how one might use this approach in the context of further developing an EAF, recognizing that a more holistic, integrated perspective will be required as we continue to evaluate tradeoffs among marine biological communities.     

The global re-cycling of persistent organic pollutants is strongly retarded by soils

'Persistent organic pollutants' (POPs) are semi-volatile, mobile in the environment and bioaccumulate. Their toxicity and propensity for long-range atmospheric transport (LRAT) has led to international bans/restrictions on their use/release. LRAT of POPs may occur by a 'single hop' or repeated temperature-driven air-surface exchange. It has been hypothesised that this will result in global fractionation and distillation-with condensation and accumulation in polar regions. Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs)--industrial chemicals banned/restricted in the 1970s--provide a classic illustration of POP behaviour. A latitudinally-segmented global PCB inventory has been produced, which shows that approximately 86% of the 1.3 x 10(6) tonnes produced was used in the temperate industrial zone of the northern hemisphere. A global survey of background surface soils gives evidence for 'fractionation' of PCBs. More significantly, however, very little of the total inventory has 'made the journey' via primary emission and/or air-surface exchange and LRAT out of the heavily populated source regions, in the 70 years since PCBs were first produced. Soils generally occlude PCBs, especially soils with dynamic turnover of C/bioturbation/burial mechanisms. This limits the fraction of PCBs available for repeated air-soil exchange. The forested soils of the northern hemisphere, and other C-rich soils, appear to be playing an important role in 'protecting' the Arctic from the advective supply of POPs. Whilst investigations on POPs in remote environments are important, it is imperative that researchers also seek to better understand their release from sources, persistence in source regions, and the significant loss mechanisms/global sinks of these compounds, if they wish to predict future trends.     

Using variance components to estimate power in a hierarchically nested sampling design

We used variance components to assess allocation of sampling effort in a hierarchically nested sampling design for ongoing monitoring of early life history stages of the federally endangered Devils Hole pupfish (DHP) (Cyprinodon diabolis). Sampling design for larval DHP included surveys (5 days each spring 2007–2009), events, and plots. Each survey was comprised of three counting events, where DHP larvae on nine plots were counted plot by plot. Statistical analysis of larval abundance included three components: (1) evaluation of power from various sample size combinations, (2) comparison of power in fixed and random plot designs, and (3) assessment of yearly differences in the power of the survey. Results indicated that increasing the sample size at the lowest level of sampling represented the most realistic option to increase the survey’s power, fixed plot designs had greater power than random plot designs, and the power of the larval survey varied by year. This study provides an example of how monitoring efforts may benefit from coupling variance components estimation with power analysis to assess sampling design.     

Apparent relationships between anthropogenic factors and climate change indicators and POPs deposition in a lacustrine system

Climate change and anthropogenic activities are expected to impact the environmental behaviors and fates of persistent organic pollutants(POPs), however, quantitative studies on these combined factors are scarce. In this study, dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane(DDTs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons(PAHs), and polychlorinated biphenyls(PCBs)were used as examples to identify how and when those factors may be related to the deposition of POPs in the sediment of Lake Chaohu, China, using generalized additive models(GAMs). Three historical trends of DDT, PAH, and PCB deposition were delineated in a dated sediment core encompassing ～100 years of historical record: a steady state or gradually increasing stage, a rapidly increasing stage, and a declining stage. The GAM results showed that aquatic total phosphorus(TP) concentrations and regional GDP(anthropogenic factors) were dominant contributors to POP accumulation rates in the lake sediment. The fitted relationships between air temperature and sedimentary DDT and PAH concentrations were linear and negative, while a positive linear relationship was found for PCBs, suggesting that Lake Chaohu may have become a net source for DDTs and PAHs, and a sink for PCBs, under a progressively warming climate.     

A framework for evaluating biodiversity mitigation metrics

Biodiversity mitigation is a cornerstone of applied conservation. Mitigation encompasses a suite of practices, ranging from planned avoidance of impacts to creation of new natural habitats. Accurate and appropriate metrics quantifying impacts to natural systems and the effectiveness of restoration are necessary to measure the success of different mitigation strategies. Because effective mitigation requires adequate metrics, we developed a Biodiversity Metrics Framework to assist practitioners and policy makers in assessing biodiversity mitigation metrics. Based on Noss’ Hierarchy of Biodiversity, the Scorecard highlights the mismatch between scientifically defined best practices and metrics required by policy. The Framework may serve a vital role in standardizing and validating mitigation projects into the future.

     

Identifying key needs for the integration of social–ecological outcomes in arctic wildlife monitoring

For effective monitoring in social–ecological systems to meet needs for biodiversity, science, and humans, desired outcomes must be clearly defined and routes from direct to derived outcomes understood. The Arctic is undergoing rapid climatic, ecological, social, and economic changes and requires effective wildlife monitoring to meet diverse stakeholder needs. To identify stakeholder priorities concerning desired outcomes of arctic wildlife monitoring, we conducted in-depth interviews with 29 arctic scientists, policy and decision makers, and representatives of indigenous organizations and nongovernmental organizations. Using qualitative content analysis, we identified and defined desired outcomes and documented links between outcomes. Using network analysis, we investigated the structure of perceived links between desired outcomes. We identified 18 desired outcomes from monitoring and classified them as either driven by monitoring information, monitoring process, or a combination of both. Highly cited outcomes were make decisions, conserve, detect change, disseminate, and secure food. These reflect key foci of arctic monitoring. Infrequently cited outcomes (e.g., govern) were emerging themes. Three modules comprised our outcome network. The modularity highlighted the low strength of perceived links between outcomes that were primarily information driven or more derived (e.g., detect change, make decisions, conserve, or secure food) and outcomes that were primarily process driven or more derived (e.g., cooperate, learn, educate). The outcomes expand monitoring community and disseminate created connections between these modules. Key desired outcomes are widely applicable to social–ecological systems within and outside the Arctic, particularly those with wildlife subsistence economies. Attributes and motivations associated with outcomes can guide development of integrated monitoring goals for biodiversity conservation and human needs. Our results demonstrated the disconnect between information- and process-driven goals and how expansion of the monitoring community and improved integration of monitoring stakeholders will help connect information- and process-derived outcomes for effective ecosystem stewardship.     

Efficacy of extracting indices from large‐scale acoustic recordings to monitor biodiversity

Passive acoustic monitoring could be a powerful way to assess biodiversity across large spatial and temporal scales. However, extracting meaningful information from recordings can be prohibitively time consuming. Acoustic indices (i.e., a mathematical summary of acoustic energy) offer a relatively rapid method for processing acoustic data and are increasingly used to characterize biological communities. We examined the relationship between acoustic indices and the diversity and abundance of biological sounds in recordings. We reviewed the acoustic‐index literature and found that over 60 indices have been applied to a range of objectives with varying success. We used 36 of the most indicative indices to develop a predictive model of the diversity of animal sounds in recordings. Acoustic data were collected at 43 sites in temperate terrestrial and tropical marine habitats across the continental United States. For terrestrial recordings, random‐forest models with a suite of acoustic indices as covariates predicted Shannon diversity, richness, and total number of biological sounds with high accuracy (R² ≥ 0.94, mean squared error [MSE] ≤170.2). Among the indices assessed, roughness, acoustic activity, and acoustic richness contributed most to the predictive ability of models. Performance of index models was negatively affected by insect, weather, and anthropogenic sounds. For marine recordings, random‐forest models poorly predicted Shannon diversity, richness, and total number of biological sounds (R² ≤ 0.40, MSE ≥ 195). Our results suggest that using a combination of relevant acoustic indices in a flexible model can accurately predict the diversity of biological sounds in temperate terrestrial acoustic recordings. Thus, acoustic approaches could be an important contribution to biodiversity monitoring in some habitats.     

Annual migrations,diving behavior,and thermal biology of Atlantic bluefin tuna, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Thunnus thynnus</Emphasis>, on their Gulf of Mexico breeding grounds

Electronic tags were used to examine the biology of Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus L.) on their breeding grounds in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). The hypothesis that movement patterns, diving behavior, and thermal biology change during different stages of the breeding migration was tested. Mature Atlantic bluefin tuna tagged in the western Atlantic and the GOM, were on their breeding grounds from February to June for an average of 39 ± 11 days. The bluefin tuna experienced significantly warmer mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) within the GOM (26.4 ± 1.6°C) than outside the GOM (20.2 ± 1.9°C). As the bluefin tuna entered and exited the GOM, the fish dove to daily maximum depths of 568 ± 50 and 580 ± 144 m, respectively, and exhibited directed movement paths to and from the localized breeding areas. During the putative breeding phase, the bluefin tuna had significantly shallower daily maximum depths (203 ± 76 m), and exhibited shallow oscillatory dives during the night. The movement paths of the bluefin tuna during the breeding phase were significantly more residential and sinuous. The heat transfer coefficients (K) were calculated for a bluefin tuna in the GOM using the recorded ambient and body temperatures. The K for this fish increased rapidly at the high ambient temperatures encountered in the GOM, and was significantly higher at night in the breeding phase when the fish was exhibiting shallow oscillatory dives. This suggests that the fish were behaviorally and physiologically thermoregulating in the Gulf of Mexico. This study demonstrates that the movement patterns, diving behavior, and thermal biology of Atlantic bluefin tuna change significantly at different stages of the breeding migration and can be used to define spawning location and timing. Electronic supplementary material Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at and is accessible for authorized users.