THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NILE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECAST SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is developing a river forecast system for the Nile River in Egypt. The river forecast system operates on scientific work stations using hydrometeorological models and software to predict inflows into the high Aswan Dam and forecast flow hydrographs at selected gaging locations above the dam The Nile Forecasting System (NFS) utilizes satellite imagery from the METEOSAT satellite as the input to the forecast system. Satellite imagery is used to estimate precipitation over the Blue Nile Basin using five different techniques. Observed precipitation data and climatic statistics are used to improve precipitation estimation. Precipitation data for grid locations are input to a distributed water balance model, a hill slope routing model, and a channel routing model. A customized Geographic Information System (GIS) was developed to show political boundaries, rivers, terrain elevation, and gaging network. The GIS was used to develop hydrologic parameters for the basin and is used for multiple display features.     

MANAGEMENT AND ANALYSIS OF WATER-USE DATA USING A GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM1

ASSTRACT: As part of its mission, the U.S. Geological Survey conducts water-resources research. Site-specific and aggregate water-use data are used in the Survey's National Water-Use Information Program and in various hydrologic investigations. Both types of activities have specific requirements in terms of water-use data access, analysis, and display. In Kansas, the Survey obtains water-use information from several sources. Trpically, this information is in a format that is not readily usable by the Survey. Geographic information system (GIS) technology is being used to restructure the available water-use data into a format that allows users to readily access and summarize site-specific water-use data by source (i.e., surface or ground water), type of use, and user-defined area.     

Simulating the influences of various fire regimes on caribou winter habitat.

Caribou are an integral component of high-latitude ecosystems and represent a major subsistence food source for many northern people. The availability and quality of winter habitat is critical to sustain these caribou populations. Caribou commonly use older spruce woodlands with adequate terrestrial lichen, a preferred winter forage, in the understory. Changes in climate and fire regime pose a significant threat to the long-term sustainability of this important winter habitat. Computer simulations performed with a spatially explicit vegetation succession model (ALFRESCO) indicate that changes in the frequency and extent of fire in interior Alaska may substantially impact the abundance and quality of winter habitat for caribou. We modeled four different fire scenarios and tracked the frequency, extent, and spatial distribution of the simulated fires and associated changes to vegetation composition and distribution. Our results suggest that shorter fire frequencies (i.e., less time between recurring fires) on the winter range of the Nelchina caribou herd in eastern interior Alaska will result in large decreases of available winter habitat, relative to that currently available, in both the short and long term. A 30% shortening of the fire frequency resulted in a 3.5-fold increase in the area burned annually and an associated 41% decrease in the amount of spruce-lichen forest found on the landscape. More importantly, simulations with more frequent fires produced a relatively immature forest age structure, compared to that which currently exists, with few stands older than 100 years. This age structure is at the lower limits of stand age classes preferred by caribou from the Nelchina herd. Projected changes in fire regime due to climate warming and/or additional prescribed burning could substantially alter the winter habitat of caribou in interior Alaska and lead to changes in winter range use and/or population dynamics.     

PERFORMANCE VARIATIONS OF COD AND NITROGEN REMOVAL BY VEGETATED SUBMERGED BED WETLANDS1

ABSTRACT: Vegetated submerged bed wetlands can supplement treatment of onsite wastewater systems. This study evaluated vegetation, media, and seasonal impacts on system performance in six meso scale rock plant filters with and without narrow leaf cattails (Typha augustifolia). Daily chemical oxygen demand (COD) reductions in planted cells averaged 85 percent and weekly total nitrogen (TN) reductions averaged 50 percent. Planted cells had 17 percent greater COD reduction and 76 percent greater TN reduction than unplanted cells, both significant differences. Media type affected COD reduction, particularly in unplanted cells. COD treatment in planted cells was highest for fine crushed limestone (87±13 percent) and least variable for coarse river gravel (85±11 percent). No significant difference in TN reduction was observed for different media types (48 to 51 percent range). Seasonal influences on treatment included a significant decrease during late fall and early spring and a significant increase with temperature. After a step increase in organic loading, treatment efficiency decreased sharply but returned to prior levels after an adaptation period of about one month. Planted cells not only exhibited higher treatment efficiency but also had a retarded organic matter breakthrough, appearing after three to seven times the period for a bromide tracer. This supports a hypothesis that retardation of contaminant movement through the treatment cells results in enhanced removal. These results support the use of rock plant filters, but demonstrate the need to account for performance variations in system design. (KEY TERMS: constructed wetlands; seasonal effects; subsurface flow; Typha augustifolia; onsite wastewater treatment; water quality.)     

Comparative population genetic structure of marine gastropods (Littorina spp.) with and without pelagic larval dispersal

 Population genetic theory predicts that marine animal species with planktonic larvae will have less genetic structure than those with direct development. We compared the genetic structure of four species of littorinid snails – two with planktonic egg capsules that hatch as planktonic larvae and two with benthic egg masses that hatch as crawl-away juveniles. We used DNA sequencing and single stranded conformational polymorphism (SSCP) to assess sequence variation in a 480 bp fragment of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene and then used an analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) to estimate Φ_st for populations from the northeastern Pacific coast. One of the two direct-developing species, Littorina subrotundata, had a moderate amount of population structure (Φ_st=0.209) as expected but the other direct-developing species, L. sitkana, was nearly fixed for a single haplotype that made it impossible to precisely estimate Φ_st. One of the two planktonic-developing species, L. scutulata, did not show any significant population structure (Φ_st=0.004). In contrast to our expectations, the other planktonic-developing species, L. plena, showed some weak but statistically significant population structure (Φ_st=0.052). We discuss how differences in population genetic structure between species with the same type of development may reflect differences in their historical demography. Received: 22 December 1999 / Accepted: 24 July 2000     

Environmental variability and fledging body mass of Common Guillemot Uria aalge chicks

To gain a better understanding of population processes and in the light of the critically endangered status of the Common Guillemot Uria aalge in Norway, we investigate which environmental factors might affect the fitness of guillemot chicks as they depart from the nest site over a 16-year period on a colony in NE Norway. Although prey composition did not seem to influence the fledging body mass of the chicks, there were significant relationships between the yearly variations in chick body mass and abundance of two important prey species (1-group herring Clupea harengus that is an important chick food item and 0-group cod Gadus morhua that is an important adult food item), population size and the sea surface temperature around the colony. The positive influence of young herring and cod on Common Guillemot chick mass occurred during a period of warming in the Barents Sea such that future recruitment into the population will depend partly on the long-term changes in ocean climate in the region.     

Parents adjust care in response to weather conditions and egg dehydration in a Neotropical glassfrog

Parental hydration of terrestrially developing eggs has evolved repeatedly among frogs and is thought to buffer embryos from environmental variation. While many anurans offer relevant opportunities to study parental care, research on how parents respond to environmental variation and offspring conditions are lacking. In this study, we investigated the interrelationships of weather, embryo hydration demands, and parental provisioning in a wild population of the glassfrog Hyalinobatrachium (‘Centrolenella’) fleischmanni in Oaxaca, Mexico. We determined whether males modify parental behavior in response to changes in weather conditions that effect embryo dehydration, how variation in both weather and parental hydration affect egg water balance and embryonic mortality, and whether parental provisioning is related to the hydration levels of egg clutches. We found that male H. fleischmanni compensate for environmental variation in offspring conditions by adjusting the frequency of parental care in response to both weather and egg dehydration. Using a male removal experiment, we examined the function of paternal care and made comparisons with previous research, finding that both the adaptive value of parental care and flexibility in parental behavior are impacted by spatial and temporal conditions. We present observations that indicate a direct conflict between providing parental care and multiple matings. In summary, this research demonstrates that the variable frequency of paternal care in H. fleischmanni is a response to the fluctuating nature of the climate and resulting hydration requirements of embryos in combination with the allocation of effort to parental care versus mating activity.     

Cranial biomechanics of Diplodocus (Dinosauria, Sauropoda): testing hypotheses of feeding behaviour in an extinct megaherbivore

Sauropod dinosaurs were the largest terrestrial herbivores and pushed at the limits of vertebrate biomechanics and physiology. Sauropods exhibit high craniodental diversity in ecosystems where numerous species co-existed, leading to the hypothesis that this biodiversity is linked to niche subdivision driven by ecological specialisation. Here, we quantitatively investigate feeding behaviour hypotheses for the iconic sauropod Diplodocus. Biomechanical modelling, using finite element analysis, was used to examine the performance of the Diplodocus skull. Three feeding behaviours were modelled: muscle-driven static biting, branch stripping and bark stripping. The skull was found to be ‘over engineered’ for static biting, overall experiencing low stress with only the dentition enduring high stress. When branch stripping, the skull, similarly, is under low stress, with little appreciable difference between those models. When simulated for bark stripping, the skull experiences far greater stresses, especially in the teeth and at the jaw joint. Therefore, we refute the bark-stripping hypothesis, while the hypotheses of branch stripping and/or precision biting are both consistent with our findings, showing that branch stripping is a biomechanically plausible feeding behaviour for diplodocids. Interestingly, in all simulations, peak stress is observed in the premaxillary–maxillary ‘lateral plates’, supporting the hypothesis that these structures evolved to dissipate stress induced while feeding. These results lead us to conclude that the aberrant craniodental form of Diplodocus was adapted for food procurement rather than resisting high bite forces.