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651.
The relationship between adaptation and mitigation in managing climate change risks: a regional response from North Central Victoria,Australia 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Roger N. Jones Paul Dettmann Geoff Park Maureen Rogers Terry White 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2007,12(5):685-712
This two-part paper considers the complementarity between adaptation and mitigation in managing the risks associated with
the enhanced greenhouse effect. Part one reviews the application of risk management methods to climate change assessments.
Formal investigations of the enhanced greenhouse effect have produced three generations of risk assessment. The first led
to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), First Assessment Report and subsequent drafting of
the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The second investigated the impacts of unmitigated climate change
in the Second and Third IPCC Assessment Reports. The third generation, currently underway, is investigating how risk management
options can be prioritised and implemented. Mitigation and adaptation have two main areas of complementarity. Firstly, they
each manage different components of future climate-related risk. Mitigation reduces the number and magnitude of potential
climate hazards, reducing the most severe changes first. Adaptation increases the ability to cope with climate hazards by
reducing system sensitivity or by reducing the consequent level of harm. Secondly, they manage risks at different extremes
of the potential range of future climate change. Adaptation works best with changes of lesser magnitude at the lower end of
the potential range. Where there is sufficient adaptive capacity, adaptation improves the ability of a system to cope with
increasingly larger changes over time. By moving from uncontrolled emissions towards stabilisation of greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere, mitigation limits the upper part of the range. Different activities have various blends of adaptive and mitigative
capacity. In some cases, high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity may lead to large residual climate risks; in other cases,
a large adaptive capacity may mean that residual risks are small or non-existent. Mitigative and adaptive capacity do not
share the same scale: adaptive capacity is expressed locally, whereas mitigative capacity is different for each activity and
location but needs to be aggregated at the global scale to properly assess its potential benefits in reducing climate hazards.
This can be seen as a demand for mitigation, which can be exercised at the local scale through exercising mitigative capacity.
Part two of the paper deals with the situation where regional bodies aim to maximise the benefits of managing climate risks
by integrating adaptation and mitigation measures at their various scales of operation. In north central Victoria, Australia,
adaptation and mitigation are being jointly managed by a greenhouse consortium and a catchment management authority. Several
related studies investigating large-scale revegetation are used to show how climate change impacts and sequestration measures
affect soil, salt and carbon fluxes in the landscape. These studies show that trade-offs between these interactions will have
to be carefully managed to maximise their relative benefits. The paper concludes that when managing climate change risks,
there are many instances where adaptation and mitigation can be integrated at the operational level. However, significant
gaps between our understanding of the benefits of adaptation and mitigation between local and global scales remain. Some of
these may be addressed by matching demands for mitigation (for activities and locations where adaptive capacity will be exceeded)
with the ability to supply that demand through localised mitigative capacity by means of globally integrated mechanisms. 相似文献