Spatio-temporal patterns in county-level incidence and reporting of Lyme disease in the northeastern United States, 1990–2000

We present an exploratory analysis of reported county-specific incidence of Lyme disease in the northeastern United States for the years 1990–2000. We briefly review the disease ecology of Lyme disease and the use of risk maps to describe local incidence as estimates of local risk of disease. We place the relevant elements of local environmental and ecological variables, local disease incidence, and (importantly) local disease reporting in a conceptual context to frame our analysis. We then apply hierarchical linear models of increasing complexity to summarize observed patterns in reported incidence, borrowing information across counties to improve local precision. We find areas of increasing incidence in the central northeastern Atlantic coast counties, increasing incidence branching to the north and west, and an area of fairly stable and slightly decreasing reported incidence in western New York.     

European union system for the evaluation of substances: the second version

This publication presents major changes in the assessment of the risks of chemicals to human health and the environment as implemented in the second version of the European Union System for the Evaluation of Substances, EUSES 2.0. EUSES is a harmonised quantitative risk assessment tool for chemicals. It is the PC-implementation of the technical guidelines developed within the framework of EU chemical legislation for industrial chemicals and biocides. As such, it is designed to support decision making by risk managers in government and industry and to assist scientific institutions in the risk assessment for these substances. The development of EUSES 2.0 is a co-ordinated project of the European Chemicals Bureau, EU Member States and the European chemical industry. Several model concepts, the technical background and the user interface of EUSES have been improved considerably. Major changes in the environmental assessment such as the implementation of emission scenario documents for industrial chemicals and biocides, the addition of the marine risk assessment, the enhancement of the regional model to include global scales, and improvements in the secondary poisoning and environmental effects modelling will be discussed. The update of the human risk assessment module in EUSES focuses on the risk characterisation for both threshold and non-threshold substances with, among others, the introduction of assessment factors. The performance of EUSES is illustrated in an example showing the human and environmental risk assessment of a sanitation disinfectant for private use.     

Effects of instrument precision and spatial variability on the assessment of the temporal variation of ambient air pollution in Atlanta, Georgia

Data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Air Quality System, the Southeastern Aerosol Research and Characterization database, and the Assessment of Spatial Aerosol Composition in Atlanta database for 1999 through 2002 have been used to characterize error associated with instrument precision and spatial variability on the assessment of the temporal variation of ambient air pollution in Atlanta, GA. These data are being used in time series epidemiologic studies in which associations of acute respiratory and cardiovascular health outcomes and daily ambient air pollutant levels are assessed. Modified semivariograms are used to quantify the effects of instrument precision and spatial variability on the assessment of daily metrics of ambient gaseous pollutants (SO2, CO, NOx, and O3) and fine particulate matter ([PM2.5] PM2.5 mass, sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, elemental carbon [EC], and organic carbon [OC]). Variation because of instrument imprecision represented 7-40% of the temporal variation in the daily pollutant measures and was largest for the PM2.5 EC and OC. Spatial variability was greatest for primary pollutants (SO2, CO, NOx, and EC). Population-weighted variation in daily ambient air pollutant levels because of both instrument imprecision and spatial variability ranged from 20% of the temporal variation for O3 to 70% of the temporal variation for SO2 and EC. Wind     

Large-Scale Effects of Timber Harvesting on Stream Systems in the Ouachita Mountains, Arkansas, USA

Using Basin Area Stream Survey (BASS) data from the United States Forest Service, we evaluated how timber harvesting influenced patterns of variation in physical stream features and regional fish and macroinvertebrate assemblages. Data were collected for three years (1990–1992) from six hydrologically variable streams in the Ouachita Mountains, Arkansas, USA that were paired by management regime within three drainage basins. Specifically, we used multivariate techniques to partition variability in assemblage structure (taxonomic and trophic) that could be explained by timber harvesting, drainage basin differences, year-to-year variability, and their shared variance components. Most of the variation in fish assemblages was explained by drainage basin differences, and both basin and year-of-sampling influenced macroinvertebrate assemblages. All three factors modeled, including interactions between drainage basins and timber harvesting, influenced variability in physical stream features. Interactions between timber harvesting and drainage basins indicated that differences in physical stream features were important in determining the effects of logging within a basin. The lack of a logging effect on the biota contradicts predictions for these small, hydrologically variable streams. We believe this pattern is related to the large scale of this study and the high levels of natural variability in the streams. Alternatively, there may be time-specific effects we were unable to detect with our sampling design and analyses.     

Western Land Managers will Need all Available Tools for Adapting to Climate Change,Including Grazing: A Critique of Beschta et al.

In a previous article, Beschta et al. (Environ Manag 51(2):474–491, 2013) argue that grazing by large ungulates (both native and domestic) should be eliminated or greatly reduced on western public lands to reduce potential climate change impacts. The authors did not present a balanced synthesis of the scientific literature, and their publication is more of an opinion article. Their conclusions do not reflect the complexities associated with herbivore grazing. Because grazing is a complex ecological process, synthesis of the scientific literature can be a challenge. Legacy effects of uncontrolled grazing during the homestead era further complicate analysis of current grazing impacts. Interactions of climate change and grazing will depend on the specific situation. For example, increasing atmospheric CO₂ and temperatures may increase accumulation of fine fuels (primarily grasses) and thus increase wildfire risk. Prescribed grazing by livestock is one of the few management tools available for reducing fine fuel accumulation. While there are certainly points on the landscape where herbivore impacts can be identified, there are also vast grazed areas where impacts are minimal. Broad scale reduction of domestic and wild herbivores to help native plant communities cope with climate change will be unnecessary because over the past 20–50 years land managers have actively sought to bring populations of native and domestic herbivores in balance with the potential of vegetation and soils. To cope with a changing climate, land managers will need access to all available vegetation management tools, including grazing.     

Assessing the Potential Effects of Fungicides on Nontarget Gut Fungi (Trichomycetes) and Their Associated Larval Black Fly Hosts

Fungicides are moderately hydrophobic and have been detected in water and sediment, particularly in agricultural watersheds, but typically are not included in routine water quality monitoring efforts. This is despite their widespread use and frequent application to combat fungal pathogens. Although the efficacy of these compounds on fungal pathogens is well documented, little is known about their effects on nontarget fungi. This pilot study, a field survey in southwestern Idaho from April to December 2010 on four streams with varying pesticide inputs (two agricultural and two reference sites), was conducted to assess nontarget impact of fungicides on gut fungi, or trichomycetes. Tissues of larval black flies (Diptera: Simuliidae), hosts of gut fungi, were analyzed for pesticide accumulation. Fungicides were detected in hosts from streams within agricultural watersheds but were not detected in hosts from reference streams. Gut fungi from agricultural sites exhibited decreased percent infestation, density and sporulation within the gut, and black fly tissues had elevated pesticide concentrations. Differences observed between the sites demonstrate a potential effect on this symbiotic system. Future research is needed to parse out the details of the complex biotic and abiotic relationships; however, these preliminary results indicate that impacts to nontarget organisms could have far‐reaching consequences within aquatic ecosystems.     

Ecological boundary detection using Bayesian areal wombling

The study of ecological boundaries and their dynamics is of fundamental importance to much of ecology, biogeography, and evolution. Over the past two decades, boundary analysis (of which wombling is a subfield) has received considerable research attention, resulting in multiple approaches for the quantification of ecological boundaries. Nonetheless, few methods have been developed that can simultaneously (1) analyze spatially homogenized data sets (i.e., areal data in the form of polygons rather than point-reference data); (2) account for spatial structure in these data and uncertainty associated with them; and (3) objectively assign probabilities to boundaries once detected. Here we describe the application of a Bayesian hierarchical framework for boundary detection developed in public health, which addresses these issues but which has seen limited application in ecology. As examples, we analyze simulated spread data and the historic pattern of spread of an invasive species, the hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae), using county-level summaries of the year of first reported infestation and several covariates potentially important to influencing the observed spread dynamics. Bayesian areal wombling is a promising approach for analyzing ecological boundaries and dynamics related to changes in the distributions of native and invasive species.     

Environmental Impact Assessment Under the National Environmental Policy Act and the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty

US government actions undertaken in Antarctica are subject to the requirements of both the Protocol and the US National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). There are differences in the scope and intent of the Protocol and NEPA; however, both require environmental impact assessment (EIA) as part of the planning process for proposed actions that have the potential for environmental impacts. In this paper we describe the two instruments and highlight key similarities and differences with particular attention to EIA. Through this comparison of the EIA requirements of NEPA and the Protocol, we show how the requirements of each can be used in concert to provide enhanced environmental protection for the antarctic environment. NEPA applies only to actions of the US government; therefore, because NEPA includes certain desirable attributes that have been refined and clarified through numerous court cases, and because the Protocol is just entering implementation internationally, some recommendations are made for strengthening the procedural requirements of the Protocol for activities undertaken by all Parties in Antarctica. The Protocol gives clear and strong guidance for protection of specific, valued antarctic environmental resources including intrinsic wilderness and aesthetic values, and the value of Antarctica as an area for scientific research. That guidance requires a higher standard of environmental protection for Antarctica than is required in other parts of the world. This paper shows that taken together NEPA and the Protocol call for closer examination of proposed actions and a more rigorous consideration of environmental impacts than either would alone. Three areas are identified where the EIA provisions of the Protocol could be strengthened to improve its effectiveness. First, the thresholds defined by the Protocol need to be clarified. Specifically, the meanings of the terms “minor” and “transitory” are not clear in the context of the Protocol. The use of “or” in the phrase “minor or transitory” further confuses the meaning. Second, cumulative impact assessment is called for by the Protocol but is not defined. A clear definition could reduce the chance that cumulative impacts would be given inadequate consideration. Finally, the public has limited opportunities to comment on or influence the preparation of initial or comprehensive environmental evaluations. Experience has shown that public input to environmental documents has a considerable influence on agency decision making and the quality of EIA that agencies perform.