Ecological boundary detection using Bayesian areal wombling

The study of ecological boundaries and their dynamics is of fundamental importance to much of ecology, biogeography, and evolution. Over the past two decades, boundary analysis (of which wombling is a subfield) has received considerable research attention, resulting in multiple approaches for the quantification of ecological boundaries. Nonetheless, few methods have been developed that can simultaneously (1) analyze spatially homogenized data sets (i.e., areal data in the form of polygons rather than point-reference data); (2) account for spatial structure in these data and uncertainty associated with them; and (3) objectively assign probabilities to boundaries once detected. Here we describe the application of a Bayesian hierarchical framework for boundary detection developed in public health, which addresses these issues but which has seen limited application in ecology. As examples, we analyze simulated spread data and the historic pattern of spread of an invasive species, the hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae), using county-level summaries of the year of first reported infestation and several covariates potentially important to influencing the observed spread dynamics. Bayesian areal wombling is a promising approach for analyzing ecological boundaries and dynamics related to changes in the distributions of native and invasive species.     

Environmental Impact Assessment Under the National Environmental Policy Act and the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty

US government actions undertaken in Antarctica are subject to the requirements of both the Protocol and the US National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). There are differences in the scope and intent of the Protocol and NEPA; however, both require environmental impact assessment (EIA) as part of the planning process for proposed actions that have the potential for environmental impacts. In this paper we describe the two instruments and highlight key similarities and differences with particular attention to EIA. Through this comparison of the EIA requirements of NEPA and the Protocol, we show how the requirements of each can be used in concert to provide enhanced environmental protection for the antarctic environment. NEPA applies only to actions of the US government; therefore, because NEPA includes certain desirable attributes that have been refined and clarified through numerous court cases, and because the Protocol is just entering implementation internationally, some recommendations are made for strengthening the procedural requirements of the Protocol for activities undertaken by all Parties in Antarctica. The Protocol gives clear and strong guidance for protection of specific, valued antarctic environmental resources including intrinsic wilderness and aesthetic values, and the value of Antarctica as an area for scientific research. That guidance requires a higher standard of environmental protection for Antarctica than is required in other parts of the world. This paper shows that taken together NEPA and the Protocol call for closer examination of proposed actions and a more rigorous consideration of environmental impacts than either would alone. Three areas are identified where the EIA provisions of the Protocol could be strengthened to improve its effectiveness. First, the thresholds defined by the Protocol need to be clarified. Specifically, the meanings of the terms “minor” and “transitory” are not clear in the context of the Protocol. The use of “or” in the phrase “minor or transitory” further confuses the meaning. Second, cumulative impact assessment is called for by the Protocol but is not defined. A clear definition could reduce the chance that cumulative impacts would be given inadequate consideration. Finally, the public has limited opportunities to comment on or influence the preparation of initial or comprehensive environmental evaluations. Experience has shown that public input to environmental documents has a considerable influence on agency decision making and the quality of EIA that agencies perform.     

Influence of toxic cyanobacteria on community structure and microcystin accumulation of freshwater molluscs

Community structure and microcystin accumulation of freshwater molluscs were studied before and after cyanobacterial proliferations, in order to assess the impact of toxic blooms on molluscs and the risk of microcystin transfer in food web. Observed decrease in mollusc abundance and changes in species richness in highly contaminated waters were not significant; however, relative abundances of taxa (prosobranchs, pulmonates, bivalves) were significantly different before and after cyanobacterial bloom. Pulmonates constituted the dominant taxon, and bivalves never occurred after bloom. Microcystin accumulation was significantly higher in molluscs from highly (versus lowly) contaminated waters, in adults (versus juveniles) and in pulmonates (versus prosobranchs and bivalves). Results are discussed according to the ecology of molluscs, their sensitivity and their ability to detoxify.     

Pathology and failure in the design and implementation of adaptive management

The conceptual underpinnings for adaptive management are simple; there will always be inherent uncertainty and unpredictability in the dynamics and behavior of complex ecological systems as a result non-linear interactions among components and emergence, yet management decisions must still be made. The strength of adaptive management is in the recognition and confrontation of such uncertainty. Rather than ignore uncertainty, or use it to preclude management actions, adaptive management can foster resilience and flexibility to cope with an uncertain future, and develop safe to fail management approaches that acknowledge inevitable changes and surprises. Since its initial introduction, adaptive management has been hailed as a solution to endless trial and error approaches to complex natural resource management challenges. However, its implementation has failed more often than not. It does not produce easy answers, and it is appropriate in only a subset of natural resource management problems. Clearly adaptive management has great potential when applied appropriately. Just as clearly adaptive management has seemingly failed to live up to its high expectations. Why? We outline nine pathologies and challenges that can lead to failure in adaptive management programs. We focus on general sources of failures in adaptive management, so that others can avoid these pitfalls in the future. Adaptive management can be a powerful and beneficial tool when applied correctly to appropriate management problems; the challenge is to keep the concept of adaptive management from being hijacked for inappropriate use.     

Resilience and sustainable development: building adaptive capacity in a world of transformations

Emerging recognition of two fundamental errors underpinning past polices for natural resource issues heralds awareness of the need for a worldwide fundamental change in thinking and in practice of environmental management. The first error has been an implicit assumption that ecosystem responses to human use are linear, predictable and controllable. The second has been an assumption that human and natural systems can be treated independently. However, evidence that has been accumulating in diverse regions all over the world suggests that natural and social systems behave in nonlinear ways, exhibit marked thresholds in their dynamics, and that social-ecological systems act as strongly coupled, complex and evolving integrated systems. This article is a summary of a report prepared on behalf of the Environmental Advisory Council to the Swedish Government, as input to the process of the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) in Johannesburg, South Africa in 26 August 4 September 2002. We use the concept of resilience--the capacity to buffer change, learn and develop--as a framework for understanding how to sustain and enhance adaptive capacity in a complex world of rapid transformations. Two useful tools for resilience-building in social-ecological systems are structured scenarios and active adaptive management. These tools require and facilitate a social context with flexible and open institutions and multi-level governance systems that allow for learning and increase adaptive capacity without foreclosing future development options.     

The effect of opening windows on air change rates in two homes

More than 300 air change rate experiments were completed in two occupied residences: a two-story detached house in Redwood City, CA, and a three-story townhouse in Reston, VA. A continuous monitor was used to measure the decay of SF6 tracer gas over periods of 1-18 hr. Each experiment first included a measurement of the air change rate with all exterior doors and windows closed (State 0), then a measurement with the single change from State 0 conditions of opening one or more windows. The overall average State 0 air change rate was 0.37 air changes per hour (hr(-1)) (SD = 0.10 hr(-1); n = 112) for the California house and 0.41 hr(-1) (SD = 0.19 hr(-1); n = 203) for the Virginia house. Indoor/outdoor temperature differences appeared to be responsible for the variation at the Virginia house of 0.15-0.85 hr(-1) when windows were closed. Opening a single window increased the State 0 air change rate by an amount roughly proportional to the width of the opening, reaching increments as high as 0.80 hr(-1) in the California house and 1.3 hr(-1) in the Virginia house. Multiple window openings increased the air change rate by amounts ranging from 0.10 to 2.8 hr(-1) in the California house and from 0.49 to 1.7 hr(-1) in the Virginia house. Compared with temperature differences and wind effects, opening windows produced the greatest increase in the air change rates measured in both homes. Results of this study indicate the importance of occupant window-opening behavior on a home's air change rate and the consequent need to incorporate this factor when estimating human exposure to indoor air pollutants.