Panarchy use in environmental science for risk and resilience planning

Environmental sciences have an important role in informing sustainable management of built environments by providing insights about the drivers and potentially negative impacts of global environmental change. Here, we discuss panarchy theory, a multi-scale hierarchical concept that accounts for the dynamism of complex socio-ecological systems, especially for those systems with strong cross-scale feedbacks. The idea of panarchy underlies much of system resilience, focusing on how systems respond to known and unknown threats. Panarchy theory can provide a framework for qualitative and quantitative research and application in the environmental sciences, which can in turn inform the ongoing efforts in socio-technical resilience thinking and adaptive and transformative approaches to management.     

PBDE flame retardants and PCBs in migrating Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in the Strait of Georgia, British Columbia, Canada

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were measured in blubber biopsy samples from 22 live-captured Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) that had just entered the Strait of Georgia, British Columbia, Canada, for their overwintering feeding season. ∑PBDE ranged from 50 μg kg⁻¹ (lipid weight) in adult females to 3780 μg kg⁻¹ in subadult individuals. ∑PCBs ranged from 272 μg kg⁻¹ in adult females to 14 280 μg kg⁻¹ in subadult individuals. While most PBDE and PCB congeners were transferred through milk to pups, PCBs with log K_OW > 7.0 (PCBs 206, 207, 208 and 209) appeared constrained, resulting in a lighter mixture in pups compared to adult females. The ratio of individual PCB congeners by metabolic group (Groups I, II, III, IV and V) to PCB-153 regressed against length of males suggested poor biotransformation of these compounds (slopes did not differ from zero, p > 0.05). PBDE congeners 49, 99, 153 and 183 appeared bioaccumulative (slopes of ratio BDE/PCB 153 versus length were higher than zero, p < 0.05), but the dominance of the single congener, BDE-47 (64% of total PBDEs), likely due in part to debromination pathways, reduced our ability to explore congener-specific dynamics of PBDEs in these pinnipeds. With 80% of our Steller sea lions exceeding a recent toxicity reference value for PCBs, the fasting-associated mobilization of these contaminants raises concerns about a heightened vulnerability to adverse effects during annual migrations.     

Options for National Parks and Reserves for Adapting to Climate Change

Past and present climate has shaped the valued ecosystems currently protected in parks and reserves, but future climate change will redefine these conditions. Continued conservation as climate changes will require thinking differently about resource management than we have in the past; we present some logical steps and tools for doing so. Three critical tenets underpin future management plans and activities: (1) climate patterns of the past will not be the climate patterns of the future; (2) climate defines the environment and influences future trajectories of the distributions of species and their habitats; (3) specific management actions may help increase the resilience of some natural resources, but fundamental changes in species and their environment may be inevitable. Science-based management will be necessary because past experience may not serve as a guide for novel future conditions. Identifying resources and processes at risk, defining thresholds and reference conditions, and establishing monitoring and assessment programs are among the types of scientific practices needed to support a broadened portfolio of management activities. In addition to the control and hedging management strategies commonly in use today, we recommend adaptive management wherever possible. Adaptive management increases our ability to address the multiple scales at which species and processes function, and increases the speed of knowledge transfer among scientists and managers. Scenario planning provides a broad forward-thinking framework from which the most appropriate management tools can be chosen. The scope of climate change effects will require a shared vision among regional partners. Preparing for and adapting to climate change is as much a cultural and intellectual challenge as an ecological challenge.     

Predicting Particulate (PM10) Personal Exposure Distributions Using a Random Component Superposition Statistical Model

ABSTRACT

This paper presents a new statistical model designed to extend our understanding from prior personal exposure field measurements of urban populations to other cities where ambient monitoring data, but no personal exposure measurements, exist. The model partitions personal exposure into two distinct components: ambient concentration and nonambient concentration. It is assumed the ambient and nonambient concentration components are uncorrelated and add together; therefore, the model is called a random component superposition (RCS) model. The 24-hr ambient outdoor concentration is multiplied by a dimensionless “attenuation factor” between 0 and 1 to account for deposition of particles as the ambient air infiltrates indoors. The RCS model is applied to field PM₁₀ measurement data from three large-scale personal exposure field studies: THEES (Total Human Environmental Exposure Study) in Phillipsburg, NJ; PTEAM (Particle Total Exposure Assessment Methodology) in Riverside, CA; and the Ethyl Corporation study in Toronto, Canada. Because indoor sources and activities (smoking, cooking, cleaning, the personal cloud, etc.) may be similar in similar populations, it was hypothesized that the statistical distribution of nonambient personal exposure is invariant across cities.     

Continuous Monitoring of Ultrafine,Fine, and Coarse Particles in a Residence for 18 Months in 1999-2000

Abstract

Continuous monitors were employed for 18 months in an occupied townhouse to measure ultrafine, fine, and coarse particles; air change rates; wind speed and direction; temperature; and relative humidity (RH). A main objective was to document short-term and long-term variation in indoor air concentrations of size-resolved particles (0.01-20 μm) caused by (1) diurnal and seasonal variation of outdoor air concentrations and meteorological variables, (2) indoor sources such as cooking and using candles, and (3) activities affecting air change rates such as opening windows and using fans. A second objective was to test and compare available instruments for their suitability in providing real-time estimates of particle levels and ancillary variables.

Despite different measuring principles, the instruments employed in this study agreed reasonably well for particles less than 10 μm in diameter. The three instruments measuring fine and coarse particles (aerodynamic diameter between 0.3 and 20 μm) agreed to within 30% in their overall estimates of total volume. Two of these instruments employed optical scattering, and the third used an aerodynamic acceleration principle. However, several lines of evidence indicated that the instrument employing aerodynamic acceleration overestimated concentrations for particle diameters greater than 10 μm. A fourth instrument measuring ultrafine and accumulation-mode particles (0.01-1 μm) was operated with two different inlets providing somewhat different particle size ranges. The two inlets agreed in the ultrafine region (<0.1 μm) but diverged increasingly for larger particles (up to 0.445 μm).

Indoor sources affecting ultrafine particle concentrations were observed 22% of the time, and sources affecting fine and coarse particle concentrations were observed 12 and 15% of the time, respectively. When an indoor source was operating, particle concentrations for different sizes ranged from 2 to 20 times the average concentrations when no indoor source was apparent. Indoor sources, such as cooking with natural gas, and simple physical activities, such as walking, accounted for a majority (50-90%) of the ultrafine and coarse particle concentrations, whereas outdoor sources were more important for accumulation-mode particles between 0.1 and 1 um in diameter. Averaged for the entire year and including no periods when indoor sources were apparent, the number distribution was bimodal, with a peak at ~10 nm (possibly smaller), a shallow minimum at ~14 nm, and a second broad peak at ~68 nm. The volume distribution was also bimodal, with a broad peak at ~200 nm, a minimum at ~1.2 μm, and then an upward slope again through the remaining size fractions.

A database was created on a 5-min averaging time basis. It contains more than 90,000 measurements by two of the instruments and approximately 30,000 by the two optical scattering instruments. About 4500 hour-long average air change rates were also calculated throughout the year using a dedicated gas chromatograph with electron capture detection (GC/ECD). At high air change rates [>0.8 air changes per hour (hr^?1)], particle concentrations were either elevated (when no source was present) or depressed (when an indoor source was operating) by factors of up to 2 compared with low air change rates.     

Evaluation of the Daphnia magna reproduction test for detecting endocrine disruptors

The Daphnia 21 d reproduction test is considered as a comprehensive and decisive test in the OECD Conceptual Framework for testing and assessment of endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs). However, how to interpret results of the Daphnia 21 d reproduction test for identification, risk assessment and testing strategy of EDCs remains an unsolved issue. This study analysed a total number of 135 published studies encompassing 86 known EDCs and non-EDCs with different modes of action. Our results show that the majority of effects on apical endpoints (survival, molting, growth, time to reproductive maturity, brood size, the number of broods, and the total number of offspring) do not seem to be EDC-specific. In contrast, the endpoint sex ratio is likely specific to juvenile hormones and their mimics. Variability is quantified for three most reported endpoints survival, the total number of offspring and sex ratio. Quantification of the endpoint sensitivity shows that the sensitivity of the sex ratio is lower than that of the total number of offspring. The Daphnia 21 d reproduction test gives insufficient information to conclude if a substance is an EDC or not. EDCs that are potent in assays in vitro may not be potent in the Daphnia 21 d reproduction test. We conclude that the Daphnia 21 d reproduction test is important for deriving No Observed Effect Concentrations for risk assessment but may produce false negatives in identification of EDCs when used on its own. A targeted testing strategy for selection of species, tests, and endpoints is suggested for identifying EDCs.     

Windsor, Ontario exposure assessment study: design and methods validation of personal, indoor, and outdoor air pollution monitoring

The Windsor, Ontario Exposure Assessment Study evaluated the contribution of ambient air pollutants to personal and indoor exposures of adults and asthmatic children living in Windsor, Ontario, Canada. In addition, the role of personal, indoor, and outdoor air pollution exposures upon asthmatic children's respiratory health was assessed. Several active and passive sampling methods were applied, or adapted, for personal, indoor, and outdoor residential monitoring of nitrogen dioxide, volatile organic compounds, particulate matter (PM; PM < or = 2.5 microm [PM2.5] and < or = 10 microm [PM10] in aerodynamic diameter), elemental carbon, ultrafine particles, ozone, air exchange rates, allergens in settled dust, and particulate-associated metals. Participants completed five consecutive days of monitoring during the winter and summer of 2005 and 2006. During 2006, in addition to undertaking the air pollution measurements, asthmatic children completed respiratory health measurements (including peak flow meter tests and exhaled breath condensate) and tracked respiratory symptoms in a diary. Extensive quality assurance and quality control steps were implemented, including the collocation of instruments at the National Air Pollution Surveillance site operated by Environment Canada and at the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality site in Allen Park, Detroit, MI. During field sampling, duplicate and blank samples were also completed and these data are reported. In total, 50 adults and 51 asthmatic children were recruited to participate, resulting in 922 participant days of data. When comparing the methods used in the study with standard reference methods, field blanks were low and bias was acceptable, with most methods being within 20% of reference methods. Duplicates were typically within less than 10% of each other, indicating that study results can be used with confidence. This paper covers study design, recruitment, methodology, time activity diary, surveys, and quality assurance and control results for the different methods used.     

Adaptive management of the Great Barrier Reef and the Grand Canyon world heritage areas

Conventional perceptions of the interactions between people and their environment are rapidly transforming. Old paradigms that view humans as separate from nature, natural resources as inexhaustible or endlessly substitutable, and the world as stable, predictable, and in balance are no longer tenable. New conceptual frameworks are rapidly emerging based on an adaptive approach that focuses on learning and flexible management in a dynamic social-ecological landscape. Using two iconic World Heritage Areas as case studies (the Great Barrier Reef and the Grand Canyon) we outline how an improved integration of the scientific and social aspects of natural resource management can guide the evolution of multiscale systems of governance that confront and cope with uncertainty, risk, and change in an increasingly human-dominated world.     

Continuous monitoring of ultrafine,fine, and coarse particles in a residence for 18 months in 1999-2000

Continuous monitors were employed for 18 months in an occupied townhouse to measure ultrafine, fine, and coarse particles; air change rates; wind speed and direction; temperature; and relative humidity (RH). A main objective was to document short-term and long-term variation in indoor air concentrations of size-resolved particles (0.01-20 microm) caused by (1) diumal and seasonal variation of outdoor air concentrations and meteorological variables, (2) indoor sources such as cooking and using candles, and (3) activities affecting air change rates such as opening windows and using fans. A second objective was to test and compare available instruments for their suitability in providing real-time estimates of particle levels and ancillary variables. Despite different measuring principles, the instruments employed in this study agreed reasonably well for particles less than 10 microm in diameter. The three instruments measuring fine and coarse particles (aerodynamic diameter between 0.3 and 20 microm) agreed to within 30% in their overall estimates of total volume. Two of these instruments employed optical scattering, and the third used an aerodynamic acceleration principle. However, several lines of evidence indicated that the instrument employing aerodynamic acceleration overestimated concentrations for particle diameters greater than 10 microm. A fourth instrument measuring ultrafine and accumulation-mode particles (0.01-1 microm) was operated with two different inlets providing somewhat different particle size ranges. The two inlets agreed in the ultrafine region (< 0.1 microm) but diverged increasingly for larger particles (up to 0.445 microm). Indoor sources affecting ultrafine particle concentrations were observed 22% of the time, and sources affecting fine and coarse particle concentrations were observed 12 and 15% of the time, respectively. When an indoor source was operating, particle concentrations for different sizes ranged from 2 to 20 times the average concentrations when no indoor source was apparent. Indoor sources, such as cooking with natural gas, and simple physical activities, such as walking, accounted for a majority (50-90%) of the ultrafine and coarse particle concentrations, whereas outdoor sources were more important for accumulation-mode particles between 0.1 and 1 microm in diameter. Averaged for the entire year and including no periods when indoor sources were apparent, the number distribution was bimodal, with a peak at approximately 10 nm (possibly smaller), a shallow minimum at approximately 14 nm, and a second broad peak at approximately 68 nm. The volume distribution was also bimodal, with a broad peak at approximately 200 nm, a minimum at approximately 1.2 microm, and then an upward slope again through the remaining size fractions. A database was created on a 5-min averaging time basis. It contains more than 90,000 measurements by two of the instruments and approximately 30,000 by the two optical scattering instruments. About 4500 hour-long average air change rates were also calculated throughout the year using a dedicated gas chromatograph with electron capture detection (GC/ECD). At high air change rates [> 0.8 air changes per hour (hr(-1))], particle concentrations were either elevated (when no source was present) or depressed (when an indoor source was operating) by factors of up to 2 compared with low air change rates.     

Analysis of potential impacts to resident fish from Columbia River System Operation alternatives

The US Army Corps of Engineers, the US Bureau of Reclamation, and the Bonneville Power Administration initiated the Columbia River System Operation Review (SOR) in 1990. The SOR will assist agencies in comparing the benefits and risks to Columbia River uses and natural resources from alternative strategies for using Columbia River water. Focusing on 14 federal dams within the basin, the agencies are attempting to improve on the efficient and coordinated use of the Columbia River system. An initial screening of all potential strategies of reservoir operation was necessary to reduce the number of possibilities to a limited set for detailed analysis. To that end, the Resident Fish Work Group of the SOR developed spreadsheet models capable of assessing the impacts of different management strategies on resident fish at six storage reservoirs. The models include biological, physical, and hydrological relationships important to resident fish specific to each reservoir. Alternatives that kept the reservoirs near full pool and held stable during the growing season resulted in positive benefits to resident fish at all locations modeled. Conversely, alternatives designed to improve anadromous fish survival with increased instream flow generally had a negative impact on the resident fish in the reservoirs modeled. The models developed for resident fish in the screening analysis phase of the SOR were useful in assessing the relative impact to resident fish from a large number of alternatives. The screening analysis demonstrated that future analytical efforts must consider trade-offs among river uses/resource groups, among reservoirs throughout the basin, and among resident fish species within a reservoir.Pacific Northwest Laboratory is operated by Battelle Memorial Institute for the US Department of Energy under contract DE-AC06-76RLO 1830.