RECYCLING INPUT DATA DURING ANALYTIC ELEMENT MODELING NEAR INDIANAPOLIS,INDIANA1

ABSTRACT: Overlapping and adjacent ground water investigations are common in areas where aquifers are threatened by industrial development. In the Indianapolis area in Marion County, Indiana, a patchwork of ground water flow models have been used during the past 20 years to evaluate ground water resources and to determine the effects of local contamination. In every case these ground water models were constructed from scratch. Site specific finite difference grids or finite element meshes inhibit the direct reuse of input data when the area of interest shifts. Because the aquifer is not discretized into a grid or mesh with analytic element models, there are unique opportunities for direct reuse of model input data. In two applications of this principle we illustrate how the newly emerging analytic element method allows a fairly straightforward reuse of model input data from previous models in the same general area. In analytic element models of Central Indiana, streams and their tributaries are represented in different resolutions. Input data items of several modeling studies are stored and cataloged on disk in such a manner that they can be selectively retrieved by a data management program PREPRO. In this manner, a new ground water model can be set up quickly with input data which have been previously defined and tested during model calibration.     

Establishment and Growth of Experimental Grass Species Mixtures on Coal Mine Sites Reclaimed with Municipal Biosolids

The Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act of 1977 requires that coal mine sites in the United States be reclaimed to establish vegetative cover that is diverse, native, and capable of plant succession. However, there is a question as to whether vegetation established on coal mine sites reclaimed with biosolids is diverse and capable of plant succession. The influx of nutrients with the addition of biosolids leads to long-term dominance by early-successional species, most notably grasses, and consequently, a low establishment of woody and volunteer species. Additionally, many grass species commonly planted in reclamation have aggressive growth habits that lead to their dominance in coal mine plant communities. The establishment and growth of selected grass mixes was evaluated to determine whether alternative grass mixes would be less competitive with woody and volunteer species as compared to commonly used grass mixes. Percent vegetative cover, species richness, and the survival of direct-seeded woody species were assessed for each treatment grass mixture. It was found that Poa compressa and a mixture of P. compressa, Panicum virgatum, and Trifolium repens provided adequate coverage while still allowing the highest species richness and survival of woody species. Use of these species mixtures in coal mine reclamation with biosolids in the eastern United States would likely lead to establishment of a more species-rich plant community with a greater woody species component while still providing erosion control and site protection.     

Saltcedar control and water salvage on the Pecos river, Texas, 1999-2003

A large scale ecosystem restoration program was initiated in 1997 on the Pecos River in Western Texas. Saltcedar (Tamarix spp.), a non-native invasive tree, had created a near monoculture along the banks of the river by replacing most native vegetation. Local irrigation districts, private landowners, federal and state agencies, and private industry worked together to formulate and implement a restoration plan, with a goal of reducing the effects of saltcedar and restoring the native ecosystem of the river. An initial management phase utilizing state-of-the-art aerial application of herbicide began in 1999 and continued through 2003. Initial mortality of saltcedar averaged about 85-90%. Monitoring efforts were initiated at the onset of the project to include evaluating the effects of saltcedar control on salinity of the river water, efficiency of water delivery down the river as an irrigation water source, and estimates of water salvage. To date, no effect on salinity can be measured and irrigation delivery was suspended in 2002-2003 due to drought conditions. Water salvage estimates show a significant reduction in system water loss after saltcedar treatment. However, a flow increase in the river is not yet evident. Monitoring efforts will continue in subsequent years.     

Linking linear programming and spatial simulation models to predict landscape effects of forest management alternatives

Forest management planners require analytical tools to assess the effects of alternative strategies on the sometimes disparate benefits from forests such as timber production and wildlife habitat. We assessed the spatial patterns of alternative management strategies by linking two models that were developed for different purposes. We used a linear programming model (Spectrum) to optimize timber harvest schedules, then a simulation model (HARVEST) to project those schedules in a spatially explicit way and produce maps from which the spatial pattern of habitat could be calculated. We demonstrated the power of this approach by evaluating alternative plans developed for a national forest plan revision in Wisconsin, USA. The amount of forest interior habitat was inversely related to the amount of timber cut, and increased under the alternatives compared to the current plan. The amount of edge habitat was positively related to the amount of timber cut, and increased under all alternatives. The amount of mature northern hardwood interior and edge habitat increased for all alternatives, but mature pine habitat area varied. Mature age classes of all forest types increased, and young classes decreased under all alternatives. The average size of patches (defined by age class) generally decreased. These results are consistent with the design goals of each of the alternatives, but reveal that the spatial differences among the alternatives are modest. These complementary models are valuable for quantifying and comparing the spatial effects of alternative management strategies.     

Response of Elk to Habitat Modification Near Natural Gas Development

Elk (Cervus elaphus) are known to shift habitat use in response to environmental modifications, including those associated with various forms of energy development. The specific behavioral responses underlying these trends, however, have not been effectively studied. To investigate such effects, we examined elk response to habitat alteration near natural gas wells in Las Animas County, Colorado, USA in 2008–2010. We created 10 1-ha openings in forests adjacent to 10 operating natural gas wells by removing standing timber in 2008, with concomitant establishment of 10 1-ha control sites adjacent to the same wells. On each site, we estimated elk use, indexed by pellet density, before and after timber removal. Concurrently, we measured plant production and cover, nutritional quality, species composition and biomass removed by elk and other large herbivores. Species richness and diversity, graminoid and forb cover, and graminoid and forb biomass increased on cut sites following tree removal. Differences were greater in 2010 than in 2009, and elk and deer removed more plant biomass in 2010 than 2009. Elk use of cut sites was 37?% lower than control sites in 2009, but 46?% higher in 2010. The initially lower use of cut sites may be attributable to lack of winter forage on these sites caused by timber removal and associated surface modification. The increased use of cut sites in 2010 suggested that elk possessed the behavioral capacity, over time, to exploit enhanced forage resources in the proximity of habitat modifications and human activity associated with maintenance of operating natural gas wells.     

The effects of 3,3′,4,4′-tetrabromobiphenyl on rats fed diets containing a constant level of copper and varying levels of molybdenum

Copper (Cu) metabolism is altered in rats fed diets high in molybdenum (Mo) and low in Cu. This 10-week study was carried out to examine the effects of supplemental Mo (7.5–240 μg/g diet) on male Sprague–Dawley rats fed diets adequate in Cu (5 μg/g diet) and to determine the susceptibility of Mo-treated animals to the environmental pollutant 3,3′,4,4′-tetrabromobiphenyl (TBB). After 7 weeks of dietary treatment, half of the rats in each group received a single IP injection of TBB (150 μM/kg bw), while the other half received the corn oil vehicle. Rats sacrificed at 10 weeks showed no effects of Mo on growth, feed efficiency, or selected organ or tissue weights. Dose-dependent effects on plasma Mo (0–5.1 μg/mL), plasma Cu (0.95–0.20 μg/mL), and bone Cu (3.4–10 μg/g) in control through the high dose were found. Cu sequestration in the bone of Mo-treated rats is a new finding. TBB treatment resulted in dramatic weight loss and loss of absolute organ mass. Relative organ weights were increased, except for the thymus. TBB altered the concentrations of certain amino acids. Compared to control rats, this polybrominated biphenyl congener significantly decreased plasma Cu and ceruloplasmin at higher concentrations of dietary Mo and promoted the process of plasma Cu decrease by Mo, suggesting a combined effect.     

Dietary antioxidants (selenium and N-acetylcysteine) modulate paraoxonase 1 (PON1) in PCB 126-exposed rats

Environmental pollutants polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), especially dioxin-like PCBs, cause oxidative stress and associated toxic effects, including cancer and possibly atherosclerosis. We previously reported that PCB 126, the most potent dioxin-like PCB congener, not only decreases antioxidants such as hepatic selenium (Se), Se-dependent glutathione peroxidase, and glutathione (GSH) but also increases levels of the antiatherosclerosis enzyme paraoxonase 1 (PON1) in liver and serum. To probe the interconnection of these three antioxidant systems, Se, GSH, and PON1, we examined the influence of varying levels of dietary Se and N-acetylcysteine (NAC), a scavenger of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and precursor for GSH synthesis, on PON1 in the absence and presence of PCB 126 exposure. Male Sprague–Dawley rats, fed diets with differing Se levels (0.02, 0.2, or 2 ppm) or NAC (1 %), were treated with a single intraperitoneal injection of corn oil or various doses of PCB 126 and euthanized 2 weeks later. PCB 126 significantly increased liver PON1 mRNA, protein level and activity, and serum PON1 activity in all dietary groups but did not consistently increase thiobarbituric acid levels (thiobarbituric acid reactive substances, TBARS), an indicator of lipid oxidation and oxidative stress, in liver or serum. Inadequate (high or low) dietary Se decreased baseline and PCB 126-induced aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR) expression but further increased PCB 126-induced cytochrome P450 1A1 (CYP1A1) expression, the enzyme believed to be the cause for PCB 126-induced oxidative stress. In addition, a significant inverse relationship was observed not only between dietary Se levels and PON1 mRNA and PON1 activity but also with TBARS levels in the liver, suggesting significant antioxidant protection from dietary Se. NAC lowered serum baseline TBARS levels in controls and increased serum PON1 activity but lowered liver PON1 activities in animals treated with 1 μmol/kg PCB 126, suggesting antioxidant activity by NAC primarily in serum. These results also show an unexpected predominantly inverse relationship between Se or NAC and PON1 during control and PCB 126 exposure conditions. These interactions should be further explored in the development of dietary protection regimens.     

Correspondence of biological condition models of California streams at statewide and regional scales

We used boosted regression trees (BRT) to model stream biological condition as measured by benthic macroinvertebrate taxonomic completeness, the ratio of observed to expected (O/E) taxa. Models were developed with and without exclusion of rare taxa at a site. BRT models are robust, requiring few assumptions compared with traditional modeling techniques such as multiple linear regression. The BRT models were constructed to provide baseline support to stressor delineation by identifying natural physiographic and human land use gradients affecting stream biological condition statewide and for eight ecological regions within the state, as part of the development of numerical biological objectives for California’s wadeable streams. Regions were defined on the basis of ecological, hydrologic, and jurisdictional factors and roughly corresponded with ecoregions. Physiographic and land use variables were derived from geographic information system coverages. The model for the entire state (n?=?1,386) identified a composite measure of anthropogenic disturbance (the sum of urban, agricultural, and unmanaged roadside vegetation land cover) within the local watershed as the most important variable, explaining 56 % of the variance in O/E values. Models for individual regions explained between 51 and 84 % of the variance in O/E values. Measures of human disturbance were important in the three coastal regions. In the South Coast and Coastal Chaparral, local watershed measures of urbanization were the most important variables related to biological condition, while in the North Coast the composite measure of human disturbance at the watershed scale was most important. In the two mountain regions, natural gradients were most important, including slope, precipitation, and temperature. The remaining three regions had relatively small sample sizes (n?≤?75 sites) and had models that gave mixed results. Understanding the spatial scale at which land use and land cover affect taxonomic completeness is imperative for sound management. Our results suggest that invertebrate taxonomic completeness is affected by human disturbance at the statewide and regional levels, with some differences among regions in the importance of natural gradients and types of human disturbance. The construction and application of models similar to the ones presented here could be useful in the planning and prioritization of actions for protection and conservation of biodiversity in California streams.     

Comparing impacts across climate models

In this paper we combine a climate-forecasting model, COSMIC, with a global impact model, GIM, to compare the market impacts of climate change projected by 14 general circulation models. Given a specific date (2100), carbon dioxide concentration (612 ppmv), and global temperature sensitivity (2.5°C), predicted impacts to economies are calculated using climate-response functions from Experimental and Cross-sectional evidence. The Cross-sectional impact model predicts small global benefits across all climate models, whereas the Experimental impact model predicts a range from small benefits to small damages. High-latitude countries are less sensitive to temperature increases than low-latitude countries because they are currently cool. Uniform global temperature changes overestimate global damages because they underestimate the benefits in polar regions and overestimate the damages in tropical regions compared to the GCM predictions.