Data fusion modeling for groundwater systems

Engineering projects involving hydrogeology are faced with uncertainties because the earth is heterogeneous, and typical data sets are fragmented and disparate. In theory, predictions provided by computer simulations using calibrated models constrained by geological boundaries provide answers to support management decisions, and geostatistical methods quantify safety margins. In practice, current methods are limited by the data types and models that can be included, computational demands, or simplifying assumptions. Data Fusion Modeling (DFM) removes many of the limitations and is capable of providing data integration and model calibration with quantified uncertainty for a variety of hydrological, geological, and geophysical data types and models. The benefits of DFM for waste management, water supply, and geotechnical applications are savings in time and cost through the ability to produce visual models that fill in missing data and predictive numerical models to aid management optimization. DFM has the ability to update field-scale models in real time using PC or workstation systems and is ideally suited for parallel processing implementation. DFM is a spatial state estimation and system identification methodology that uses three sources of information: measured data, physical laws, and statistical models for uncertainty in spatial heterogeneities. What is new in DFM is the solution of the causality problem in the data assimilation Kalman filter methods to achieve computational practicality. The Kalman filter is generalized by introducing information filter methods due to Bierman coupled with a Markov random field representation for spatial variation. A Bayesian penalty function is implemented with Gauss–Newton methods. This leads to a computational problem similar to numerical simulation of the partial differential equations (PDEs) of groundwater. In fact, extensions of PDE solver ideas to break down computations over space form the computational heart of DFM. State estimates and uncertainties can be computed for heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity fields in multiple geological layers from the usually sparse hydraulic conductivity data and the often more plentiful head data. Further, a system identification theory has been derived based on statistical likelihood principles. A maximum likelihood theory is provided to estimate statistical parameters such as Markov model parameters that determine the geostatistical variogram. Field-scale application of DFM at the DOE Savannah River Site is presented and compared with manual calibration. DFM calibration runs converge in less than 1 h on a Pentium Pro PC for a 3D model with more than 15,000 nodes. Run time is approximately linear with the number of nodes. Furthermore, conditional simulation is used to quantify the statistical variability in model predictions such as contaminant breakthrough curves.     

Water quality in a non-traditional off-stream polyethylene-lined reservoir

Annual water storage in a 5.3 ha, polyethylene-lined, off-stream irrigation reservoir in northern Alabama, USA, resulted in marked improvement in water quality. Results of three-year monitoring from June 1999 to May 2002 indicate that the relatively static conditions of the reservoir enhanced settling of suspended particles by 85% (from 14.4 to 2.1 mg TSS/L) that cleared the water and increased sunlight penetration. The organic and inorganic particles that settled to the bottom removed up to 88% of the nutrients and other chemical substances from the water. Nutrients remaining in the water column were rapidly assimilated by phytoplankton algae. With the basin sealed at the bottom and no runoff input there was limited opportunity for nutrients or other substances to enter the reservoir in quantities that would adversely affect water quality. Consequently, reservoir water was found to be of high quality and suitable as a raw water supply. Non-traditional, off-stream storage reservoirs such as described in this paper may be uniquely suited for agricultural irrigation and public water supply in regions such as southeastern US that experience relatively frequent drought conditions but have relatively abundant long-term annual rainfall.     

Distribution of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans in suspended sediments, dissolved phase and bottom sediment in the Houston Ship Channel

Spatial distributions of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and dibenzofurans (PCDFs) in the water column and bottom sediments of the Houston Ship Channel in Texas were measured three times over a 1-year period. Total TEQ concentrations in water ranged from 0.01 to 0.25 pg/l for the dissolved phase and from 0.09 to 2.91 pg/l for the suspended phase, while TEQ concentrations in bottom sediments varied from 0.9 to 139.8 ng/kg dry wt. The dissolved concentrations were lower than their respective suspended concentrations, with average dissolved/suspended ratios between 0.11 and 0.59 for individual congeners. More than 89% of the total concentration of 2378-substituted PCDD/PCDFs was attributable to OCDD but 2378-TCDD was the major contributor to total TEQ for the three sampled media. Average logs of organic carbon-normalized suspended sediment-dissolved partitioning coefficients (logK(oc)(obs)) varied between 4.92 and 8.59 l/kg-oc; while in the bottom sediment-dissolved interface, logK(oc)(obs) values ranged from 5.48 to 8.48 l/kg-oc. Observed logK(oc)values varied within a factor of 0.64-1.26 from equilibrium logK(oc) values, suggesting fluxes of PCDD/PCDFs across the interfaces. It was found that in the HSC, on average, the tendency of a compound to move from the particulate phase to the dissolved phase decreases with increasing K(ow).     

Emissions of ammonia, hydrogen sulfide, and odor before, during, and after slurry removal from a deep-pit swine finisher

It is a common practice in the midwestern United States to raise swine in buildings with under-floor slurry storage systems designed to store manure for up to one year. These so-called "deep-pit" systems are a concentrated source for the emissions of ammonia (NH3), hydrogen sulfide (H2S), and odors. As part of a larger six-state research effort (U.S. Department of Agriculture-Initiative for Future Agriculture and Food Systems Project, "Aerial Pollutant Emissions from Confined Animal Buildings"), realtime NH3 and H2S with incremental odor emission data were collected for two annual slurry removal events. For this study, two 1000-head deep-pit swine finishing facilities in central Iowa were monitored with one-year storage of slurry maintained in a 2.4 m-deep concrete pit (or holding tank) below the animal-occupied zone. Results show that the H2S emission, measured during four independent slurry removal events over two years, increased by an average of 61.9 times relative to the before-removal H2S emission levels. This increase persisted during the agitation process of the slurry that on average occurred over an 8-hr time period. At the conclusion of slurry agitation, the H2S emission decreased by an average of 10.4 times the before-removal emission level. NH3 emission during agitation increased by an average of 4.6 times the before-removal emission level and increased by an average of 1.5 times the before-removal emission level after slurry removal was completed. Odor emission increased by a factor of 3.4 times the before-removal odor emission level and decreased after the slurry-removal event by a factor of 5.6 times the before-removal emission level. The results indicate that maintaining an adequate barn ventilation rate regardless of animal comfort demand is essential to keeping gas levels inside the barn below hazardous levels.     

Evaluating inter-continental transport of fine aerosols: (1) Methodology,global aerosol distribution and optical depth

Our objectives are to evaluate inter-continental source-receptor relationships for fine aerosols and to identify the regions whose emissions have dominant influence on receptor continents. We simulate sulfate, black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and mineral dust aerosols using a global coupled chemistry-aerosol model (MOZART-2) driven with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis meteorology for 1997–2003 and emissions approximately representing year 2000. The concentrations of simulated aerosol species in general agree within a factor of 2 with observations, except that the model tends to overestimate sulfate over Europe in summer, underestimate BC and OC over the western and southeastern (SE) U.S. and Europe, and underestimate dust over the SE U.S. By tagging emissions from ten continental regions, we quantify the contribution of each region's emissions on surface aerosol concentrations (relevant for air quality) and aerosol optical depth (AOD, relevant for visibility and climate) globally. We find that domestic emissions contribute substantially to surface aerosol concentrations (57–95%) over all regions, but are responsible for a smaller fraction of AOD (26–76%). We define “background” aerosols as those aerosols over a region that result from inter-continental transport, DMS oxidation, and emissions from ships or volcanoes. Transport from other continental source regions accounts for a substantial portion of background aerosol concentrations: 36–97% for surface concentrations and 38–89% for AOD. We identify the Region of Primary Influence (RPI) as the source region with the largest contribution to the receptor's background aerosol concentrations (or AOD). We find that for dust Africa is the RPI for both aerosol concentrations and AOD over all other receptor regions. For non-dust aerosols (particularly for sulfate and BC), the RPIs for aerosol concentrations and AOD are identical for most receptor regions. These findings indicate that the reduction of the emission of non-dust aerosols and their precursors from an RPI will simultaneously improve both air quality and visibility over a receptor region.     

Waiting for Peace: Perspectives from Action-oriented Research on the Humanitarian Impasse in the Caucasus

Cease-fires in the Caucasus during the past five years have prevented large-scale life-threatening emergencies and created space for peace negotiations. Yet genuine conflict resolution and normalisation have proven elusive, frustrating the return of uprooted populations and constraining reconstruction. This paper reviews a series of seven strategy sessions held in Moscow and the Caucasus in late 1998 to reflect upon the performance of humanitarian agencies and stimulate greater synergies with diplomatic actors. An experiment in promoting discussion of recently conducted independent policy research throughout the north and south Caucasus, the series resulted in a fresh look at the issues in the region and at agency headquarters. The generic nature of the policy challenges gives the experience potential relevance well beyond the region.