A Dynamic Simulation Model of Land-Use, Population, and Rural Livelihoods in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

The dynamic interactions between society and land resources have to be taken into account when planning and managing natural resources. A computer model, using STELLA software, was developed through active participation of purposively selected farm households from different wealth groups, age groups and gender within a rural community and some members of Kebelle council. The aim of the modeling was to study the perceived changes in land-use, population and livelihoods over the next 30 years and to improve our understanding of the interactions among them. The modeling output is characterized by rapid population growth, declining farm size and household incomes, deteriorating woody vegetation cover and worsening land degradation if current conditions remain. However, through integrated intervention strategies (including forest increase, micro-finance, family planning, health and education) the woody vegetation cover is likely to increase in the landscape, population growth is likely to slow down and households’ income is likely to improve. A validation assessment of the simulation model based on historical data on land-use and population from 1973 to 2006 showed that the model is relatively robust. We conclude that as a supporting tool, the simulation model can contribute to the decision making process.     

Projected future climate change and Baltic Sea ecosystem management

Climate change is likely to have large effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Simulations indicate 2–4 °C warming and 50–80 % decrease in ice cover by 2100. Precipitation may increase ~30 % in the north, causing increased land runoff of allochthonous organic matter (AOM) and organic pollutants and decreased salinity. Coupled physical–biogeochemical models indicate that, in the south, bottom-water anoxia may spread, reducing cod recruitment and increasing sediment phosphorus release, thus promoting cyanobacterial blooms. In the north, heterotrophic bacteria will be favored by AOM, while phytoplankton production may be reduced. Extra trophic levels in the food web may increase energy losses and consequently reduce fish production. Future management of the Baltic Sea must consider the effects of climate change on the ecosystem dynamics and functions, as well as the effects of anthropogenic nutrient and pollutant load. Monitoring should have a holistic approach, encompassing both autotrophic (phytoplankton) and heterotrophic (e.g., bacterial) processes.     

Atmospheric pathways of chlorinated pesticides and natural bromoanisoles in the northern Baltic Sea and its catchment

Long-range atmospheric transport is a major pathway for delivering persistent organic pollutants to the oceans. Atmospheric deposition and volatilization of chlorinated pesticides and algae-produced bromoanisoles (BAs) were estimated for Bothnian Bay, northern Baltic Sea, based on air and water concentrations measured in 2011–2012. Pesticide fluxes were estimated using monthly air and water temperatures and assuming 4 months ice cover when no exchange occurs. Fluxes were predicted to increase by about 50 % under a 2069–2099 prediction scenario of higher temperatures and no ice. Total atmospheric loadings to Bothnian Bay and its catchment were derived from air–sea gas exchange and “bulk” (precipitation + dry particle) deposition, resulting in net gains of 53 and 46 kg year^?1 for endosulfans and hexachlorocyclohexanes, respectively, and net loss of 10 kg year^?1 for chlordanes. Volatilization of BAs releases bromine to the atmosphere and may limit their residence time in Bothnian Bay. This initial study provides baseline information for future investigations of climate change on biogeochemical cycles in the northern Baltic Sea and its catchment.     

Using Vessel Monitoring System Data to Improve Systematic Conservation Planning of a Multiple-Use Marine Protected Area,the Kosterhavet National Park (Sweden)

When spatial fishing data is fed into systematic conservation planning processes the cost to a fishery could be ensured to be minimal in the zoning of marine protected areas. We used vessel monitoring system (VMS) data to map the distribution of prawn trawling and calculate fishing intensity for 1-ha grid cells, in the Kosterhavet National Park (Sweden). We then used the software Marxan to generate cost-efficient reserve networks that represented every biotope in the Park. We asked what were the potential gains and losses in terms of fishing effort and species conservation of different planning scenarios. Given a conservation target of 10 % representation of each biotope, the fishery need not lose more than 20 % of its fishing grounds to give way to cost-efficient conservation of benthic diversity. No additional reserved area was needed to achieve conservation targets while minimizing fishing costs. We discuss the benefits of using VMS data for conservation planning.     

Model selection and evaluation for risk assessment of dioxin-contaminated sites

The general European population has a total intake of dioxins and dioxin-like chemicals near the limit recommended by the European Union, making additional exposure above background levels undesirable. For populations living near dioxin-contaminated sites, additional exposure may occur by intake of locally produced food, inhalation of particles, dermal contact with soils, or other exposure pathways. Risk assessment tools are required to estimate risks associated with contaminated sites and to set priorities for site remediation. Here, we review several multimedia models that can be applied as tools to support risk assessment. We then present a strategy to select, apply, evaluate, and adapt a model to address a specific situation. The case study we consider is a risk assessment of generic background dioxin exposure in Sweden, and we compare the predictions with environmental observations and exposure data from Sweden. Arguments are presented for selecting the CalTOX model for this case study. We demonstrate the application, evaluation, and adaptation of the model and discuss the requirements for extending the analysis to conduct risk assessment for subpopulations living near dioxin-contaminated sites.     

Fungicide leaching from golf greens: effects of root zone composition and surfactant use

Soil water repellency in golf putting greens may induce preferential "finger flow," leading to enhanced leaching of surface applied fungicides. We examined the effects of root zone composition, treatment with a non-ionic surfactant, and the use of the fungicide iprodion or a combination of azoxystrobin and propiconazole on soil water repellency, soil water content distributions, fungicide leaching, and turf quality during 1 yr. Soil water repellency was measured using the water drop penetration time (WDPT) test and tension infiltrometers. Our study was made on a 3-yr-old experimental green seeded with creeping bentgrass (Agrostis stolonifera L.) 'Penn A-4' at Landvik in southeast Norway. The facility consists of 16 lysimeters with two different root zone materials: (i) straight sand (1% gravel, 96% sand, 3% silt and clay, 4 g kg(-1) organic matter) (SS) and (ii) straight sand mixed with garden compost to an organic matter content of 21 g kg(-1) (Green Mix [GM]). Surfactant treatment resulted in 96% lower average WDPTs at 1 cm depth, three times higher water infiltration rates at the soil surface, and reduced spatial variation in soil water contents. Fungicide leaching was close to zero for the GM lysimeters probably due to stronger sorption. Concentrations in the drainage water from SS lysimeters often exceeded surface water guideline values for all three fungicides, but surfactant treatment dramatically reduced fungicide leaching from these lysimeters. In autumn and winter, surfactant-treated plots were more infected with fungal diseases probably because of higher water content in the turfgrass thatch layer.     

Urban dose rates at Gävle, Göteborg and Lund

Besides gamma rays from ¹³⁷Cs emanating from the Chernobyl accident, gamma rays from natural radionuclides are a dominant source of radiation exposure to the public. Since people spend much more time indoors than outdoors the radiation dose obtained inside dwellings contributes greatly to individual and collective doses. Dose rate measurements were made at 20 locations within the city of Göteborg and at further 22 reference sites within a radius of 100 km. Measurements were also made at Gävle and Lund. The dose rates were measured with RNI intensimeters, TLD (LiF) meters and in in situ measurements using an HPGe. The ground cover was grass, asphalt, concrete slates or paving-stones. The dose rates varied between 0.05 and 0.25 μSv/h. Also performed in different ways, measurements made inside and outside buildings at both Göteborg and Gävle showed inside dose rates higher than outside dose rates.     

Associations between CB-153 and p,p'-DDE and hormone levels in serum in middle-aged and elderly men

BACKGROUND: Animal and epidemiologic data indicate that exposure to persistent organochlorine pollutants (POPs) may disrupt the hypothalamus-pituitary-thyroid (HPT) and the hypothalamus-pituitary-gonadal (HPG) axes. We have assessed whether the POP-biomarkers 2,2'4,4',5,5'-hexachlorobiphenyl (CB-153) and 1,1-dichloro-2,2-bis(4-chlorophenyl)-ethene (p,p'-DDE) affect thyrotropin (TSH), thyroid hormones, gonadotropins or sex hormone concentrations in men. METHODS: Lipid adjusted serum concentrations of CB-153, and p,p'-DDE, were determined in 196 men (median age 59 years, range 48-82). Hormone analyses in serum were performed with immunoassays. The effect of CB-153 and p,p'-DDE (as continuous or categorized variables) were evaluated by linear regression models, adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS: There was a significant positive association between p,p'-DDE and TSH. An increase of 100 ng/g lipid of p,p'-DDE corresponded to an increase of 0.03 mU/l (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.01, 0.05) in TSH level. The explanatory value (R(2)) of the multivariate model was only 7%. Moreover, there was a significant negative association between p,p'-DDE and estradiol. An increase of 100 ng/g lipid of p,p'-DDE corresponded to a decrease of 0.57 pmol/l (95% CI -1.0, -0.12) in estradiol level. The R(2)-value was only 4%. No associations were observed between any of the POP biomarkers and the other hormones. CONCLUSIONS: The positive association between p,p'-DDE and TSH and the negative association between p,p'-DDE and estradiol, among middle-aged and elderly men, were not accompanied by associations between the POP-markers and thyroxin, testosterone, and gonadotropins, respectively. The results gives some additional support for that POP exposure may affect HPT- and HPG-axes also in humans, but the overall epidemiological data are still not coherent enough to allow any firm conclusions.     

The Chemical Sensitivity Scale: Psychometric properties and comparison with the noise sensitivity scale

A questionnaire-based tool for quantifying self-reported affective reactions to and behavioral disruptions by odorous/pungent substances, called the Chemical Sensitivity Scale (CSS), analogous to the Noise Sensitivity Scale (NSS), was evaluated regarding psychometric properties. Twenty-six members from the Swedish Asthma and Allergy Association and 124 control participants responded to the CSS, the NSS, and to additional questions for evaluation of the validity of the CSS and NSS. The results showed that the CSS generates approximately normal distributions, has good test–retest reliability (r_xy=0.87), good internal consistency (r_α=0.88), and satisfying predictive and concurrent validity. These metric properties of the CSS and NSS were in general very similar. The content validity of the CSS is discussed. Two major dimensions of the CSS appear to represent sensory/somatic and neurasthenic symptoms, respectively. The analogy of the CSS to the NSS implies that use of both scales in combination may enhance understanding for the issue of general environmental sensitivity versus specific sensitivity to chemicals. Correlation coefficients between CSS and NSS scores for the asthma and allergy members (r_xy=0.40) and controls (r_xy=0.42) imply a moderate correspondence between chemical and noise sensitivity.     

Census Study of Real-Life Near-Side Crashes with Modern Side Airbag-Equipped Vehicles in the United States

Objective: This study aimed to investigate the crash characteristics, injury distribution, and injury mechanisms for Maximum Abbreviated Injury Score (MAIS) 2+ injured belted, near-side occupants in airbag-equipped modern vehicles. Furthermore, differences in injury distribution for senior occupants compared to non-senior occupants was investigated, as well as whether the near-side occupant injury risk to the head and thorax increases or decreases with a neighboring occupant.

Method: National Automotive Sampling System's Crashworthiness Data System (NASS-CDS) data from 2000 to 2012 were searched for all side impacts (GAD L&R, all principal direction of force) for belted occupants in modern vehicles (model year > 1999). Rollovers were excluded, and only front seat occupants over the age of 10 were included. Twelve thousand three hundred fifty-four MAIS 2+ injured occupants seated adjacent to the intruding structure (near-side) and protected by at least one deployed side airbag were studied. To evaluate the injury risk influenced by the neighboring occupant, odds ratio with an induced exposure approach was used.

Result: The most typical crash occurred either at an intersection or in a left turn where the striking vehicle impacted the target vehicle at a 60 to 70° angle, resulting in a moderate change of velocity (delta-V) and intrusion at the B-pillar. The head, thorax, and pelvis were the most frequent body regions with rib fracture the most frequent specific injury. A majority of the head injuries included brain injuries without skull fracture, and non-senior rather than senior occupants had a higher frequency of head injuries on the whole. In approximately 50% of the cases there was a neighboring occupant influencing injury outcome.

Conclusion: Compared to non-senior occupants, the senior occupants sustained a considerably higher rate of thoracic and pelvis injuries, which should be addressed by improved thorax side airbag protection. The influence on near-side occupant injury risk by the neighboring occupant should also be further evaluated. Furthermore, side airbag performance and injury assessments in intersection crashes, especially those involving senior occupants in lower severities, should be further investigated and side impact dummy biofidelity and injury criteria must be determined for these crash scenarios.