Assessing Effectiveness of National Flood Policy Through Spatiotemporal Monitoring of Socioeconomic Exposure1

Abstract: After a century of evolving flood policies, there has been a steady increase in flood losses, which has partly been driven by development in flood prone areas. National flood policy was revised in 1994 to focus on limiting and reducing the amount of development inside the 100‐year floodplain, with the goal of decreasing flood losses, which can be measured and quantified in terms of population and property value inside the 100‐year floodplain. Monitoring changes in these measurable indicators can inform where and how effective national floodplain management strategies have been. National flood policies are restricted to the spatial extent of the 100‐year floodplain, thus there are no development regulations to protect against flooding adjacent to this boundary. No consistent monitoring has been undertaken to examine the effect of flood policy on development immediately outside the 100‐year floodplain. We developed a standardized methodology, which leveraged national data to quantify changes in population and building tax value (exposure). We applied this approach to counties in North Carolina to assess (1) temporal changes, before and after the 1994 policy and (2) spatial changes, inside and adjacent to the 100‐year floodplain. Temporal results indicate the Piedmont and Mountain Region had limited success at reducing exposure within the 100‐year floodplain, while the Coastal Plain successfully reduced exposure. Spatially, there was a significant increase in exposure immediately outside the 100‐year floodplain throughout North Carolina. The lack of consistent monitoring has resulted in the continuation of this unintended consequence, which could be a significant driver of increased flood losses as any flood even slightly higher than the 100‐year floodplain will have a disproportionately large impact since development is outside the legal boundary of national flood policy.     

Reducing Streamflow Forecast Uncertainty: Application and Qualitative Assessment of the Upper Klamath River Basin,Oregon1

Abstract: The accuracy of streamflow forecasts depends on the uncertainty associated with future weather and the accuracy of the hydrologic model that is used to produce the forecasts. We present a method for streamflow forecasting where hydrologic model parameters are selected based on the climate state. Parameter sets for a hydrologic model are conditioned on an atmospheric pressure index defined using mean November through February (NDJF) 700‐hectoPascal geopotential heights over northwestern North America [Pressure Index from Geopotential heights (PIG)]. The hydrologic model is applied in the Sprague River basin (SRB), a snowmelt‐dominated basin located in the Upper Klamath basin in Oregon. In the SRB, the majority of streamflow occurs during March through May (MAM). Water years (WYs) 1980‐2004 were divided into three groups based on their respective PIG values (high, medium, and low PIG). Low (high) PIG years tend to have higher (lower) than average MAM streamflow. Four parameter sets were calibrated for the SRB, each using a different set of WYs. The initial set used WYs 1995‐2004 and the remaining three used WYs defined as high‐, medium‐, and low‐PIG years. Two sets of March, April, and May streamflow volume forecasts were made using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP). The first set of ESP simulations used the initial parameter set. Because the PIG is defined using NDJF pressure heights, forecasts starting in March can be made using the PIG parameter set that corresponds with the year being forecasted. The second set of ESP simulations used the parameter set associated with the given PIG year. Comparison of the ESP sets indicates that more accuracy and less variability in volume forecasts may be possible when the ESP is conditioned using the PIG. This is especially true during the high‐PIG years (low‐flow years).     

Consequences of ignoring dispersal variation in network models for landscape connectivity

Habitat loss and fragmentation can negatively influence population persistence and biodiversity, but the effects can be mitigated if species successfully disperse between isolated habitat patches. Network models are the primary tool for quantifying landscape connectivity, yet in practice, an overly simplistic view of species dispersal is applied. These models often ignore individual variation in dispersal ability under the assumption that all individuals move the same fixed distance with equal probability. We developed a modeling approach to address this problem. We incorporated dispersal kernels into network models to determine how individual variation in dispersal alters understanding of landscape-level connectivity and implemented our approach on a fragmented grassland landscape in Minnesota. Ignoring dispersal variation consistently overestimated a population's robustness to local extinctions and underestimated its robustness to local habitat loss. Furthermore, a simplified view of dispersal underestimated the amount of habitat substructure for small populations but overestimated habitat substructure for large populations. Our results demonstrate that considering biologically realistic dispersal alters understanding of landscape connectivity in ecological theory and conservation practice.     

Exploring the emergence of a tipping point for conservation with increased recognition of social considerations

Despite a common understanding of the harmful impacts of Western conservation models that separate people from nature, widespread progress toward incorporating socioeconomic, political, cultural, and spiritual considerations in conservation practice is lacking. For some, the concept of nature-based solutions (NbS) is seen as an interdisciplinary and holistic pathway to better integrate human well-being in conservation. We examined how conservation practitioners in the United States view NbS and how social considerations are or are not incorporated in conservation adaptation projects. We interviewed 28 individuals working on 15 different such projects associated with the Wildlife Conservation Society's Climate Adaptation Fund. We completed 2 rounds of iterative coding in NVivo 12.6.1 to identify in the full text of all interview responses an a priori set of themes related to our research questions and emergent themes. Many respondents saw this moment as a tipping point for the field (one in which the perceived values of social considerations are increasing in conservation practice) (76%) and that social justice concerns and the need to overcome racist and colonial roots of Western conservation have risen to the forefront. Respondents also tentatively agreed that NbS in conservation could support social and ecological outcomes for conservation, but that it was far from guaranteed. Despite individual intention and awareness among practitioners to incorporate social considerations in conservation practice, structural barriers, including limited funding and inflexible grant structures, continue to constrain systemic change. Ultimately, systemic changes that address power and justice in policy and practice are required to leverage this moment to more fully address social considerations in conservation.     

A BIM-based system for demolition and renovation waste estimation and planning

Due to the rising worldwide awareness of green environment, both government and contractors have to consider effective construction and demolition (C&D) waste management practices. The last two decades have witnessed the growing importance of demolition and renovation (D&R) works and the growing amount of D&R waste disposed to landfills every day, especially in developed cities like Hong Kong. Quantitative waste prediction is crucial for waste management. It can enable contractors to pinpoint critical waste generation processes and to plan waste control strategies. In addition, waste estimation could also facilitate some government waste management policies, such as the waste disposal charging scheme in Hong Kong. Currently, tools that can accurately and conveniently estimate the amount of waste from construction, renovation, and demolition projects are lacking.In the light of this research gap, this paper presents a building information modeling (BIM) based system that we have developed for estimation and planning of D&R waste. BIM allows multi-disciplinary information to be superimposed within one digital building model. Our system can extract material and volume information through the BIM model and integrate the information for detailed waste estimation and planning. Waste recycling and reuse are also considered in our system. Extracted material information can be provided to recyclers before demolition or renovation to make recycling stage more cooperative and more efficient. Pick-up truck requirements and waste disposal charging fee for different waste facilities will also be predicted through our system. The results could provide alerts to contractors ahead of time at project planning stage. This paper also presents an example scenario with a 47-floor residential building in Hong Kong to demonstrate our D&R waste estimation and planning system. As the BIM technology has been increasingly adopted in the architectural, engineering and construction industry and digital building information models will likely to be available for most buildings (including historical buildings) in the future, our system can be used in various demolition and renovation projects and be extended to facilitate project control.     

Assessment of non-invasive techniques for monitoring mercury concentrations in species of Amazon turtles

This study determined the concentrations of mercury (Hg) in four tissues of six species of turtles from the Rio Negro in the Amazon Basin. For two species, blood and carapace tissues were correlated with concentrations in internal tissues to establish whether blood or carapace could serve as a non-lethal indicator of internal metal exposure or body burden. The four tissues’ Hg levels were also correlated to turtle size and gender. The liver in five species of turtles had the highest concentration, followed by carapace, muscle, and blood. The exception was Chelus fimbriatus, which had a higher metal concentration in the muscle than carapace. Regarding the correlation between total Hg concentrations in tissues of the two species, no significant correlation was noted for Podocnemis erythrocephala. However, for Podocnemis sextuberculata significant correlation was found between muscle?×?liver, muscle?×?blood, and liver?×?blood. For P. erythrocephala, there was a correlation between Hg concentration in carapace and turtle size. For P. sextuberculata, there was no marked correlation between Hg concentration and size, but concentration in muscle was significantly influenced by gender. The patterns of Hg accumulation in tissues of the five species followed those described for freshwater species and some species of sea turtles. The difference in C. fimbriatus may be a result of a different pattern of non-living keratin layers on the carapace tissue. The use of carapace to infer internal concentrations of Hg is common in freshwater and sea turtles, but in this study it was found that only blood might be a reliable indicator of Hg concentrations in liver and muscle tissues for P. sextuberculata. Thus blood may be used as a non-invasive method to study concentrations of Hg in liver and muscle of P. sextuberculata.     

No relationship between long-distance acoustic mate attraction signals and male fertility or female preference in spring field crickets

To father offspring, a male must succeed at two processes of sexual selection: (1) mate with a female and (2) fertilize her eggs. We investigated the relationships between pre- and post-copulatory male traits and female mating responses in wild-captured and laboratory-reared spring field crickets, Gryllus veletis. The phenotype-linked fertility hypothesis suggests that females may receive a direct benefit, enhanced fertilization efficiency, by mating with males that signal attractively. We measured fine-scale components of male acoustic mate attraction signals as well as how much time males spent signalling, measured female preference for males in mating trials and then quantified sperm number and viability. We found no relationship between male signalling traits and male fertility or female preference, providing no evidence for the phenotype-linked fertility hypothesis. We also found no difference in sperm metrics between wild-captured and laboratory-reared males. While female crickets may receive benefits by choosing males based on acoustic signal characteristics, whether the benefits are a result of genetic quality, seminal fluid contents or some other male trait remains unknown.     

A Nationwide Analysis of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Reservoir Performance in Meeting Operational Targets

The United States (U.S.) Army Corps of Engineers operates reservoirs across the U.S. with 89% of reservoirs constructed prior to 1980. Many reservoirs have experienced changes in environmental conditions (e.g., climate and sediment yield) and societal conditions (e.g., water/energy demand and ecological flows) since construction. These changes may challenge the potential for reservoirs to meet their operational targets (OTs) (management goals). Historic daily reservoir data and OTs were collected for 233 reservoirs. Analyses were developed to identify when and where reservoirs may be systematically departing from OTs in terms of the frequency and magnitude of departure. Fifty‐six percent of reservoirs consistently met operating targets, 30% were borderline, and 13% experienced frequent and large magnitude departures. Fifty‐two percent of reservoirs with large departures were due to shortages and were located in the South Pacific and Southwestern divisions. This work provides a framework to identify reservoir performance in relation to management goals, a necessary step for moving toward adaptive management under changing conditions. All individual reservoir analyses are provided via an interactive data visualization tool: https://nicholasinstitute.duke.edu/reservoir-data .     

Characterization of Drought in the South Atlantic,United States

Drought has been less extensively characterized in the humid South Atlantic compared to the arid western United States. Our objective was to characterize drought in the South Atlantic and to understand whether drought has become more severe in this region over time. Here we used monthly streamflow to characterize hydrological drought. Hydrological drought occurred when streamflow fell below the 20th percentile over three consecutive months and terminated once streamflow remained above the 20th percentile for three consecutive months. We characterized the frequency, duration, magnitude, and severity of events using the above definition. Significant changes in drought characteristics were tested with Mann‐Kendall over three periods: 1930‐2010, 1930‐1969, and 1970‐2010. We show that 71% of drought events were shorter than six months, while 7% were multiyear events. There was little evidence of trends in drought characteristics to support the claim of drought becoming more severe in the South Atlantic over the 20th Century. The one exception was a significant increase in the joint probability of nearby basins being simultaneously in drought conditions in the southern portion of the study area from 1970 to 2010. While drought characteristics have changed little through time, decreasing average streamflow in non drought periods coupled with increasing water demand provide the context within which recent multiyear drought events have produced significant stress on existing water infrastructure.     

Evaluating Flow Metric‐Based Stream Classification Systems to Support the Determination of Ecological Flows in North Carolina

Hydroecological classification systems are typically based on an assemblage of streamflow metrics and seek to divide streams into ecologically relevant classes. Assignment of streams to classes is suggested as an initial step in the process of establishing ecological flow standards. We used two distinct hydroecological river classification systems available within North Carolina to evaluate the ability of a hydrologic model to assign the same classes as those determined by observed streamflows and to assess the transferability of such systems to ungaged streams. Class assignments were examined by rate of overall matches, rate of class matches, spatial variability in matches, and time period used in class assignment. The findings of this study indicate assignments of stream class: (1) are inconsistent among different classification systems; (2) differ between observed and modeled data; and (3) are sensitive to the period of record within observed data. One clear source of inconsistency/sensitivity in class assignments lies with the use of threshold values for metrics that distinguish stream classes, such that even small changes in metric values can result in different class assignments. Because these two hydroecological classification systems are representative of other classification systems that rely on quantitative decision thresholds, it can be surmised that the use of such systems based on stream flow metrics is not a reliable approach for guiding ecological flow determinations.