Adaptation options for marine industries and coastal communities using community structure and dynamics

Identifying effective adaptation strategies for coastal communities dependent on marine resources and impacted by climate change can be difficult due to the dynamic nature of marine ecosystems. The task is more difficult if current and predicted shifts in social and economic trends are considered. Information about social and economic change is often limited to qualitative data. A combination of qualitative and quantitative models provide the flexibility to allow the assessment of current and future ecological and socio-economic risks and can provide information on alternative adaptations. Here, we demonstrate how stakeholder input, qualitative models and Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) can provide semi-quantitative predictions, including uncertainty levels, for the assessment of climate and non-climate-driven change in a case study community. Issues are identified, including the need to increase the capacity of the community to cope with change. Adaptation strategies are identified that alter positive feedback cycles contributing to a continued decline in population, local employment and retail spending. For instance, the diversification of employment opportunities and the attraction of new residents of different ages would be beneficial in preventing further population decline. Some impacts of climate change can be combated through recreational bag or size limits and monitoring of popular range-shifted species that are currently unmanaged, to reduce the potential for excessive removal. Our results also demonstrate that combining BBNs and qualitative models can assist with the effective communication of information between stakeholders and researchers. Furthermore, the combination of techniques provides a dynamic, learning-based, semi-quantitative approach for the assessment of climate and socio-economic impacts and the identification of potential adaptation strategies.     

The use of XAD-resins for the detection of mutagenic activity in water: I. Studies with surface water

A study of the effects of different XAD-resins, bed volume, flow rate, pH and type of eluent on the extraction of organic mutagens from surface water is presented. XAD-4/8 is as effective as XAD-2 in concentrating organic mutagens from surface water and dimethylsulfoxide (DMSO) is as efficient as acetone in eluting the adsorbed organic mutagens. The latter allows direct testing up to 0.5 ml of DMSO concentrate in the Ames test. Variation of the pH of the water after passing the XAD-4/8, followed by readsorption, shows that the majority of the mutagenic activity due to dissolved organics is adsorbed at neutral pH. Only a minor fraction is readsorbed at pH 3. Further a XAD-4/8 concentrate and a similar concentrate prepared by freeze drying gives similar mutagenic activity. This indicates that many of the organic mutagens are recovered in the XAD-4/8 concentrate.It is concluded that adsorption on XAD-4/8, followed by direct testing of the DMSO eluates in the Ames test, presents a rapid and relatively simple way to detect low concentrations of organic mutagens in surface water. The general suitability of the method is shown for different types of surface water.     

Seasonal changes in an intertidal community affected by sewage pollution

Seasonal changes in structure of a rocky intertidal community affected by sewage pollution at Quequén (Argentina) were studied over a period of 2 years. Most species showed a decrease in cover values in the polluted area. On the other hand, a small proportion of organisms favoured by organic enrichment predominated around the outfall during the period of study. Community structure was not significantly altered by frosts or windstorms. Desiccation is identified as the main physical stress. A combination of late spring high temperatures with extreme midday low-tides caused by northerly winds was responsible for heavy losses in dominant algae. Major seasonal changes in community structure were primarily due to variations in area covered by the chlorophyte Ulva lactuca, and crusts of blue-green algae and diatoms in the vicinity of the outfall. Highest diversity values were attained during either late winter or spring, due to increased abundances of several seasonal algae. Abundance of the dominant organism, the bivalve Brachidontes rodriguezi, remained stable, showing only slight, non-seasonal, changes. Since the absence of B. rodriguezi is an indication of heavy pollution, temporal stability of this species suggests that the intensity of sewage discharges did not vary over the period of study.