Cost-effective selection of sampling frequencies for regulatory water quality monitoring

A dynamic programming code was formulated for the purpose of assigning sampling frequencies throughout a regulatory water quality monitoring network in order to optimize the statistical performance of the network while operating within a fixed budgetary constraint. The statistical objective is to achieve the greatest possible station to station uniformity in confidence interval widths about annual geometric means of the measured water quality variables and to keep the average confidence width reasonably small. The objective function is the sum (over several selected variables and all stations) of the normalized positive deviations of the predicted confidence interval widths from preselected design confidence interval widths. The code was designed to account for the effects of deterministic seasonal variation and serial correlation of the water quality observations by incorporating the results of the time series analysis of historical quality data. The economic constraint ensures that the annual operating cost of the system, including direct costs of travel and laboratory analysis, will not exceed the allowable budget. As an example situation, the dynamic programming code was used to assign sampling frequencies to the nine stations in Illinois from which historical quality data had been obtained and analyzed. Using five design quality constituents and representative travel and laboratory costs, an “optimal” design was produced. The optimal design achieved a 10% improvement in uniformity (standard deviation) of confidence interval widths when compared to a more traditional design based on the same budget and using identical sampling frequencies at every station.     

Permanent post-disaster housing in honduras: aspects of vulnerability to future disasters

To some degree it is unfair to evaluate a post-disaster housing program as to its effectiveness in decreasing vulnerability and preventing future disasters. As Burton states, "With rare exceptions, administrators and techniques have been trained to cope with disaster rather than to prevent it" [reference (2), p.197]. These were certainly not goals articulated by the agency responsible for constructing housing after Fifi. However, the authors feel that failure to evaluate specific projects by persons knowledgeable of the projects functioning, will only forestall the shift which Cuny calls for, "… from disaster response to disaster mitigation and prevention" [reference (4), p.123). In doing this we hope to add some specific case study data to the growing literature on disaster mitigation and prevention. Disaster vulnerability in Honduras is overwhelmingly related to flooding. More crucial than the materials and construction of housing is the issue of siting. If appropriately sited, houses made of bajarique, wood, or concrete block are able to withstand the heavy rains associated with a hurricane. Regarding the siting of the projects, the Honduras Project clearly has one positive and one negative accomplishment in the cases of Santa Rica and Flores, respectively. San Jose is less clear but is certainly a much safer site than those formerly occupied by the residents, in that there is no danger of flooding. The present site was not flooded during Fifi nor did it experience mudslides. However, the future is not so clear regarding the latter. Within the village proper a large amount of vegetation has been added which will tend to stabilise the soil on the steeper slopes. The streets, however, are seriously eroded and probably can not be maintained for vehicle usage, which does not pose a serious problem to the residents as none possess automobiles or trucks. One large gully bisects the village and receives run-off from the adjacent hills. It has been expanding, which would suggest that the slopes above the village could prove problematic in case of a Fifi-sized storm. Flores is located on a very poor site in reference to prevention and mitigation. It is located in a portion of the Sula Valley which is prone to flooding and, as mentioned before, was inundated by over 2m of water during hurricane Fifi. No prevention techniques were possible by NAEA/HEA and the houses were built on earthen mounds barely adequate to keep water out during the rainy season. The nearby dike which could possibly provide protection is non-functional due to poor maintainance. Given a storm of Fifi's magnitude, or possibly smaller, this site will again be flooded. Santa Rica is clearly well sited concerning flooding: it did not experience flooding during Fifi and is not flood prone. However, houses did experience some wall damage due to earthquakes following and associated with the Guatemalan quake of 1976. Due to the size and nature of the latter much "re-adjustment" occurred in the neighbouring fault system; however, damage to the houses was all superficial. We feel the residents were vocal about their concern due to the severity of the Guatemalan disaster and their lack of experience with concrete block houses. That the two sites (particularly Flores and partially San Jose) are vulnerable to future disasters cannot be considered solely the fault of an outside agency without local knowledge and understanding. In the engineering report issued during the construction it was explicitly stated that in Flores, "Future flooding remains a danger," [reference (6), p.49]. The future residents of Flores had gained access to the land from the National Agrarian Institute and were anxious to receive assistance in building homes. In fact, CARE, which had previously given these people tin roofing for houses, was threatening to take it back since the people had not yet started building. NAEA/HEA were responding to people in a rather desperate situation. But, on the other hand, they were responding to people who had been promised (not given) land by an agency of the Honduran national government which would be cognizant of the potential flooding at this site. Likewise, in San Jose, where mudslides and erosion remain a threat, the land was provided by a local government agency, the municipality. Although our goal in this discussion has not been to establish blame, we feel it imperative to mention the sequence of events that resulted in the questionable siting of Flores and San Jose. It is very easy and often accurate to place blame on outsiders who lack sophistication and knowledge about such matters. In this case local input did not result in post-disaster planning that is actually precautionary. This, we feel, illustrates the extreme complexity of cross-cultural aid, especially in the post-disaster period. It also points to the need for precautionary planning with reference to permanent post-disaster reconstruction.     

Land reclamation and strip-mined coal production in appalachia

This study quantifies the short-run impacts of reclamation on strip mining costs, coal prices, production, and employment in Appalachia. A process analysis model is developed and used to estimate short-run strip-mined coal supply functions under conditions of alternative reclamation requirements. Then, an econometric model is developed and used to estimate coal demand relations. Our results show that full reclamation has rather minor impacts. In 1972, full reclamation would have increased strip-mined coal production costs an average of $0.35 per ton, reduced strip-mined coal production by 10 million tons, and cost approximately 1600 jobs in Appalachia.     

The use of enhanced bioremediation at the Savannah River Site to remediate pesticides and PCBs

Enhanced bioremediation is quickly developing into an economical and viable technology for the remediation of contaminated soils. Until recently, chlorinated organic compounds have proven difficult to bioremediate. Environmentally recalcitrant compounds, such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and persistent organic pesticides (POPs) such as dichlorodiphenyl trichloroethane (DDT) have shown to be especially arduous to bioremediate. Recent advances in field‐scale bioremedial applications have indicated that biodegradation of these compounds may be possible. Engineers and scientists at the Savannah River Site (SRS), a major DOE installation near Aiken, South Carolina, are using enhanced bioremediation to remediate soils contaminated with pesticides (DDT and its metabolites, heptachlor epoxide, dieldrin, and endrin) and PCBs. This article reviews the ongoing remediation occurring at the Chemicals, Metals, and Pesticides (CMP) Pits using windrow turners to facilitate microbial degradation of certain pesticides and PCBs. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Alteration in Rhizosphere Soil Properties of Afforested <Emphasis Type="Italic">Rhamnus lycioides</Emphasis> Seedlings in Short-Term Response to Mycorrhizal Inoculation with <Emphasis Type="Italic">Glomus intraradices</Emphasis> and Organic Amendment

The reestablisment of autochthonous plant species is an essential strategy for recovering degraded areas under semiarid conditions. A field experiment was carried out to assess the short-term effect of two reafforestation methods involving mycorrhizal inoculation and compost addition on soil quality parameters and Rhamnus lycioides seedling growth. The nutrient content (NPK) and enzymatic activities (dehydrogenase, urease, protease-BAA, acid phosphatase and β-glucosidase) increased and bulk density decreased in the rhizosphere soil with the organic amendment. Biomass C of rhizosphere soil increased by at least 240% with respect to the control soil after mycorrhizal inoculation and the combination of compost addition + mycorrhizal inoculation. Both mycorrhizal inoculation and composted organic residue addition increased R. lycioides seedling growth in the same proportion. In the short term, we conclude that the application of both reafforestation methods not only enhances the establishment of R. lycioides seedlings, but also improves soil quality.     

Influence of Water Allocation and Freshwater Inflow on Oyster Production: A Hydrodynamic–Oyster Population Model for Galveston Bay,Texas, USA

A hydrodynamic–oyster population model was developed to assess the effect of changes in freshwater inflow on oyster populations in Galveston Bay, Texas, USA. The population model includes the effects of environmental conditions, predators, and the oyster parasite, Perkinsus marinus, on oyster populations. The hydrodynamic model includes the effects of wind stress, river runoff, tides, and oceanic exchange on the circulation of the bay. Simulations were run for low, mean, and high freshwater inflow conditions under the present (1993) hydrology and predicted hydrologies for 2024 and 2049 that include both changes in total freshwater inflow and diversions of freshwater from one primary drainage basin to another. Freshwater diversion to supply the Houston metropolitan area is predicted to negatively impact oyster production in Galveston Bay. Fecundity and larval survivorship both decline. Mortality from Perkinsus marinus increases, but to a lesser extent. A larger negative impact in 2049 relative to 2024 originates from the larger drop in fecundity under that hydrology. Changes in recruitment and mortality, resulting in lowered oyster abundance, occur because the bay volume available for mixing freshwater input from the San Jacinto and Buffalo Bayou drainage basins that drain metropolitan Houston is small in comparison to the volume of Trinity Bay that presently receives the bulk of the bay's freshwater inflow. A smaller volume for mixing results in salinities that decline more rapidly and to a greater extent under conditions of high freshwater discharge. Thus, the decline in oyster abundance results from a disequilibrium between geography and salinity brought about by freshwater diversion. Although the bay hydrology shifts, available hard substrate does not. The simulations stress the fact that it is not just the well-appreciated reduction in freshwater inflow that can result in decreased oyster production. Changing the location of freshwater inflow can also significantly impact the bay environment, even if the total amount of freshwater inflow does not change.     

What do economic simulations tell us? Recent mergers in the iron ore industry

This paper investigates the European Commission's decision to allow a merger between two Brazilian iron ore mining companies, CVRD and Caemi, using data on the Direct Reduced Iron pellet market. By using a simulation model, we can directly simulate the total welfare effects from the merger and hence evaluate the merger from a new perspective. The results from our simulations suggest that the welfare effects are negative from the merger between CVRD and Caemi, which supports the conclusion drawn by the European Commission decision. By performing different simulations between hypothetical merger candidates, our results show that only mergers between small candidates have the potential to be welfare enhancing.     

INCREASED BASEFLOW IN IOWA OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE 20TH CENTURY1

ABSTRACT: Historical trends in annual discharge characteristics were evaluated for 11 gauging stations located throughout Iowa. Discharge records from nine eight‐digit hydrologic unit code (HUC‐8) watersheds were examined for the period 1940 to 2000, whereas data for two larger river systems (Cedar and Des Moines Rivers) were examined for a longer period of record (1903 to 2000). In nearly all watersheds evaluated, annual base flow, annual minimum flow, and the annual base flow percentage significantly increased over time. Some rivers also exhibited increasing trends in total annual discharge, whereas only the Maquoketa River had significantly decreased annual maximum flows. Regression of stream discharge versus precipitation indicated that more precipitation is being routed into streams as base flow than as storm flow in the second half of the 20th Century. Reasons for the observed stream flow trends are hypothesized to include improved conservation practices, greater artificial drainage, increasing row crop production, and channel incision. Each of these reasons is consistent with the observed trends, and all are likely responsible to some degree in most watersheds.     

公司管理:内部控制与风险管理

由于国际市场的萎缩,公司的业务领域正日益全球化,公司应该按照国际标准,在世界范围内审查其行为表现。贸易呈现多样化及国际化,内部控制战略更需要健全。公司自成立之日起,一直致力于规避风险。风险是商业的有机组成部分,许多人也许认为风险越大,则回报越多。然而,从现代意义上来讲,需要确保组织对经济、社会或者环境的影响在公司的控制之下,从而确保为公司股东长期提供利益的增长。建立一个清晰、明了的风险战略对公司而言至关重要。许多公司已经采用了管理体系标准,并意识到这些标准将有助于利用已经构建的方法对优先权冲突进行管理。公…