Development and Application of the 2010 Chesapeake Bay Watershed Total Maximum Daily Load Model

The Phase 5.3 Watershed Model simulates the Chesapeake watershed land use, river flows, and the associated transport and fate of nutrient and sediment loads to the Chesapeake Bay. The Phase 5.3 Model is the most recent of a series of increasingly refined versions of a model that have been operational for more than two decades. The Phase 5.3 Model, in conjunction with models of the Chesapeake airshed and estuary, provides estimates of management actions needed to protect water quality, achieve Chesapeake water quality standards, and restore living resources. The Phase 5.3 Watershed Model tracks nutrient and sediment load estimates of the entire 166,000 km² watershed, including loads from all six watershed states. The creation of software systems, input datasets, and calibration methods were important aspects of the model development process. A community model approach was taken with model development and application, and the model was developed by a broad coalition of model practitioners including environmental engineers, scientists, and environmental managers. Among the users of the Phase 5.3 Model are the Chesapeake watershed states and local governments, consultants, river basin commissions, and universities. Development and application of the model are described, as well as key scenarios ranging from high nutrient and sediment load conditions if no management actions were taken in the watershed, to low load estimates of an all‐forested condition.     

Renewable Energy Legislation in China: Political and Institutional Strategy for Effective Implementation

Abstract

Over the past decade, the Chinese government has developed several plans regulations and policy measures related to the development of renewable energy technologies and has implemented a series of pilot projects. Chinese policymakers have spent several years studying how renewable energy policy models that have been used internationally could be implemented in China. Programs are currently underway to implement pilot renewable portfolio standards, or mandatory market shares (MMS) for renewable energy, in several provinces. This paper examines the primary institutions that are involved in promoting renewable policies in China, the structure of the policies that currently are being drafted, and the status of the complementary, national-level renewable energy law being drafted to provide a legal basis for ongoing local and national-level policies. It then examines the legal requirements for promoting renewable energy legislation under the Chinese law-making system. Finally, it provides recommendations for strategies to ensure the smooth implementation of a multi-faceted national renewable energy policy and legal framework.     

An Application of Remote Sensing Data in Mapping Landscape-Level Forest Biomass for Monitoring the Effectiveness of Forest Policies in Northeastern China

Monitoring the dynamics of forest biomass at various spatial scales is important for better understanding the terrestrial carbon cycle as well as improving the effectiveness of forest policies and forest management activities. In this article, field data and Landsat image data acquired in 1999 and 2007 were utilized to quantify spatiotemporal changes of forest biomass for Dongsheng Forestry Farm in Changbai Mountain region of northeastern China. We found that Landsat TM band 4 and Difference Vegetation Index with a 3 × 3 window size were the best predictors associated with forest biomass estimations in the study area. The inverse regression model with Landsat TM band 4 predictor was found to be the best model. The total forest biomass in the study area decreased slightly from 2.77 × 10⁶ Mg in 1999 to 2.73 × 10⁶ Mg in 2007, which agreed closely with field-based model estimates. The area of forested land increased from 17.9 × 10³ ha in 1999 to 18.1 × 10³ ha in 2007. The stabilization of forest biomass and the slight increase of forested land occurred in the period following implementations of national forest policies in China in 1999. The pattern of changes in both forest biomass and biomass density was altered due to different management regimes adopted in light of those policies. This study reveals the usefulness of the remote sensing-based approach for detecting and monitoring quantitative changes in forest biomass at a landscape scale.     

Using Multiple Watershed Models to Predict Water,Nitrogen, and Phosphorus Discharges to the Patuxent Estuary1

Boomer, Kathleen M.B., Donald E. Weller, Thomas E. Jordan, Lewis Linker, Zhi‐Jun Liu, James Reilly, Gary Shenk, and Alexey A. Voinov, 2012. Using Multiple Watershed Models to Predict Water, Nitrogen, and Phosphorus Discharges to the Patuxent Estuary. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐25. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00689.x Abstract: We analyzed an ensemble of watershed models that predict flow, nitrogen, and phosphorus discharges. The models differed in scope and complexity and used different input data, but all had been applied to evaluate human impacts on discharges to the Patuxent River or to the Chesapeake Bay. We compared predictions to observations of average annual, annual time series, and monthly discharge leaving three basins. No model consistently matched observed discharges better than the others, and predictions differed as much as 150% for every basin. Models that agreed best with the observations in one basin often were among the worst models for another material or basin. Combining model predictions into a model average improved overall reliability in matching observations, and the range of predictions helped describe uncertainty. The model average was not the closest to the observed discharge for every material, basin, and time frame, but the model average had the highest Nash–Sutcliffe performance across all combinations. Consistently poor performance in predicting phosphorus loads suggests that none of the models capture major controls. Differences among model predictions came from differences in model structures, input data, and the time period considered, and also to errors in the observed discharge. Ensemble watershed modeling helped identify research needs and quantify the uncertainties that should be considered when using the models in management decisions.     

Development of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Total Maximum Daily Load Allocation

Nutrient load allocations and subsequent reductions in total nitrogen and phosphorus have been applied in the Chesapeake watershed since 1992 to reduce hypoxia and to restore living resources. In 2010, sediment allocations were established to augment nutrient allocations supporting the submerged aquatic vegetation resource. From the initial introduction of nutrient allocations in 1992 to the present, the allocations have become more completely applied to all areas and loads in the watershed and have also become more rigorously assessed and tracked. The latest 2010 application of nutrient and sediment allocations were made as part of the Chesapeake Bay total maximum daily load and covered all six states of the Chesapeake watershed. A quantitative allocation process was developed that applied principles of equity and efficiency in the watershed, while achieving all tidal water quality standards through an assessment of equitable levels of effort in reducing nutrients and sediments. The level of effort was determined through application of two key watershed scenarios: one where no action was taken in nutrient control and one where maximum nutrient control efforts were applied. Once the level of effort was determined for different jurisdictions, the overall load reduction was set watershed‐wide to achieve dissolved oxygen water quality standards. Further adjustments were made to the allocation to achieve the James River chlorophyll‐a standard.     

Push-pull tests evaluating in situ aerobic cometabolism of ethylene, propylene, and cis-1,2-dichloroethylene

In situ aerobic cometabolic transformations of ethylene, propylene, and cis-1,2-dichloroethylene (c-DCE), by microorganisms stimulated on propane, were examined in groundwater contaminated with c-DCE and trichloroethylene (TCE). In situ measurements were performed by conducting field push-pull tests, which consisted of injecting site groundwater amended with a bromide tracer and combinations of propane, dissolved oxygen (DO), nitrate, ethylene, propylene, c-DCE, and TCE into existing monitoring wells and sampling the same wells over time. Mass balance and transformation rate calculations were performed after adjusting for dilution losses using measured tracer concentrations. Initial rates of propane utilization were very low; rates increased substantially following sequential additions of propane and DO. Evidence that propane and DO additions had stimulated organisms expressing a propane monoxygenase enzyme system and that had the capability to transform chlorinated aliphatic hydrocarbons (CAHs) included: (1) the transformation of injected ethylene and propylene to the cometabolic byproducts ethylene oxide and propylene oxide, (2) the transformation of c-DCE, and (3) the inhibition of these transformations in the presence of coinjected acetylene, a known monoxygenase mechanism-based inactivator. These results suggest that a series of push-pull tests performed with nontoxic chemical probes can be useful for detecting and monitoring in situ aerobic cometabolism of CAHs.     

Highly dynamic fission–fusion species can exhibit leadership when traveling

Leadership by specific individuals is thought to enhance the fitness of followers by allowing them to take advantage of the knowledge or skills of key individuals. In general, consistent leadership is expected to occur primarily in stable groups of related individuals where the benefits enhance the inclusive fitness of a leader. Societies with less stability in group composition (i.e., fission–fusion groups) are less likely to feature unshared decision making. However, in situations where frequent interactions among individuals occur (e.g., small population size and small range of movement) and/or the complexity of the environment requires substantial experience and knowledge, consistent leadership might be expected. We tested if a highly dynamic fission–fusion population of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus), inhabiting a complex environment, exhibited leadership when traveling. A small number of specific individuals led group travel more often than expected by chance, and were more likely to initiate successful direction changes of groups than following individuals. The number of leaders in a group remained relatively constant across a wide range of group sizes and was not affected by the number of potential leaders (i.e., those that had led previously) present in the group. Together, these results suggest that leadership can occur in species with high rates of group fission and fusion. Therefore, the loss of key individuals could have disproportionate effects on population dynamics.     

Stochastic gravity models for modeling lake invasions

Freshwater aquatic systems in North America are being invaded by many different species, ranging from fish, mollusks, cladocerans to various bacteria and viruses. These invasions have serious ecological and economic impacts. Human activities such as recreational boating are an important pathway for dispersal. Gravity models are used to quantify the dispersal effect of human activity. Gravity models currently used in ecology are deterministic. This paper proposes the use of stochastic gravity models in ecology, which provides new capabilities both in model building and in potential model applications. These models allow us to use standard statistical inference tools such as maximum likelihood estimation and model selection based on information criteria. To facilitate prediction, we use only those covariates that are easily available from common data sources and can be forecasted in future. This is important for forecasting the spread of invasive species in geographical and temporal domain. The proposed model is portable, that is it can be used for estimating relative boater traffic and hence relative propagule pressure for the lakes not covered by current boater surveys. This makes our results broadly applicable to various invasion prediction and management models.