Population Variability and Extinction Risk

Abstract: Population models generally predict increased extinction risk (ER) with increased population variability (  PV  ), yet some empirical tests have provided contradictory findings. We resolve this conflict by attributing negative measured relationships to a statistical artifact that arises because PV tends to be underestimated for populations with short persistence. Such populations do not go extinct quickly as a consequence of low intrinsic variability; instead, the measured variability is low because they go extinct so quickly. Consequently, any underlying positive relationship between PV and ER tends to be obscured. We conducted a series of analyses to evaluate this claim. Simulations showed that negative measured relationships are to be expected, despite an underlying positive relationship. Simulations also identified properties of data, minimizing this bias and thereby permitting meaningful analysis. Experimental data on laboratory populations of a bruchid beetle (Callosobruchus maculatus) supported the simulation results. Likewise, with an appropriate statistical approach (Cox regression on untransformed data), reanalysis of a controversial data set on British island bird populations revealed a significant positive association between PV and ER (p = 0.03). Finally, a similar analysis of time series for naturally regulated animal populations revealed a positive association between PV and quasiextinction risk (p < 0.01). Without exception, our simulation results, experimental findings, reanalysis of published data, and analysis of quasiextinction risk all contradict previous reports of negative or equivocal relationships. Valid analysis of meaningful data provides strong evidence that increased population variability leads to increased extinction risk.     

Beliefs and fears and Type A behavior: implications for academic performance and psychiatric health disorder symptoms

This study begins by examining the dimensionality of the Type A behavior pattern using four frequently employed self-report measures. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses identified nine meaningful factors (dimensions) across the four scales. A measure of hostility was added since hostility has been found to be highly predictive of coronary heart disease and originally was included in Rosenman, Swan and Carmelli's (1988) definition of Type A behavior. Supporting the utility of examining Type A behavior as a multidimensional personality construct, the Type A dimensions and hostility reveal differential effects on academic performance and a general health or psychiatric disorder symptom profile. Achievement striving is positively related to academic performance, and time pressure, anger, and hostility seem to significantly increase somatic complaints, anxiety, and depression. In addition, there is support for Price's (1982) conceptualization that some cognitive beliefs and fears promote the development and maintenance of Type A behavior. As expected, the belief and fear that one must prove oneself or else be judged unworthy relates positively to work involvement and achievement striving, but it also directly and positively impacts the overt Type A behaviors of hurry and time pressure and two psychiatric health disorder symptoms, performance dysfunction and anxiety. Lastly, implications and future research directions are discussed.     

A sediment diagenesis model on sediment oxygen demand in managing eutrophication on Taihu,China

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Blue-green algae (CyanoHABs), photosynthetic bacteria that create a harmful aquatic environment, have been a trending issue on Taihu for over a...     

Selenium and arsenic content of agricultural soils from Bangladesh and Nepal

Arsenic (As) contamination of the available domestic drinking water from shallow aquifers to villagers in Bangladesh often exceeds the newest WHO standard of <10 µg As L^?1 and the older Bangladeshi standard of <50 µg As L^?1. An estimated 9.2 million shallow tube wells in Bangladesh deliver water to 97% of the rural population, placing an estimated 57 million people at risk for arsenicosis. The contamination of drinking water by As extends to W. Bengal, India and Nepal. The same shallow aquifers used for domestic water are also used to irrigate food crops, particularly rice. Irrigation adds As to soils and increases exposure of the population to additional As via foods consumed. Selenium (Se), an essential trace mineral found in soils, is absorbed by plants, entering the human food chain. It was suggested that a low dietary intake of Se may be contributing to the problem of human arsenicosis in Bangladesh. Dietary Se acts as a natural antidote to As by (1) accelerating As excretion, (2) sequestering As by complexation and (3) as an antioxidant component of the enzyme glutathione peroxidase that may counteract the prooxidant effects of As that contribute to arsenicosis and cancer. Analysis of 70 agricultural soil samples from Bangladesh by fluorimetry, ICP-AES and Neutron Activation Analysis showed the soils analyzed to be high in As (～33 µg g^?1) and biologically low in soluble Se (～0.02 µg g^?1). A low dietary intake of Se related to low soil content and this mineral in foods may be contributing to human arsenicosis in the Ganges–Brahmaputra delta.     

State-of-the-science assessment of non-asbestos amphibole exposure: Is there a cancer risk?

The distinction between amphibole asbestos fibers and non-asbestos amphibole particles has important implications for assessing potential cancer risks associated with exposure to amphibole asbestos or amphibole-containing products. Exposure to amphibole asbestos fibers can pose a cancer risk due to its ability to reside for long periods of time in the deep lung (i.e., biopersistence). In contrast, non-asbestos amphibole particles are usually cleared rapidly from the lung and do not pose similar respiratory risks even at high doses. Most regulatory and public health agencies, as well as scientific bodies, agree that non-asbestos amphiboles possess reduced biological (e.g., carcinogenic) activity. Although non-asbestos amphibole minerals have been excluded historically from Federal regulations, non-asbestos structures may be counted as asbestos fibers on the basis of dimensional criteria specified in analytical protocols. Given the potential to mischaracterize a non-asbestos structure as a “true” asbestos fiber, our objective was to assess whether exposure to non-asbestos amphiboles that may meet the dimensional criteria for counting as a fiber pose a cancer risk similar to amphibole asbestos. We reviewed analytical methods as well as the mineralogical, epidemiological, and toxicological literature for non-asbestos amphiboles. No evidence of demonstrable cancer effects from exposure to non-asbestos amphiboles that may be counted as fibers, under certain assessment protocols, was found. Data gaps (industrial hygiene data for amphibole-exposed cohorts), inconsistencies (analytical laboratory methods/protocols used to count fibers), and sources of potential bias from misclassification of exposure were identified.     

Getting the Scale Right: A Comparison of Analytical Methods for Vulnerability Assessment and Household-level Targeting

This paper introduces broad concepts of vulnerability, food security and famine. It argues that the concepts and theories driving development and implementation of vulnerability assessment tools are related to their utility. The review concludes that socio-geographic scale is a key issue, and challenge. It analyses three vulnerability assessment (VA) methods, using Ethiopia as a case study. Facing the challenges of vulnerability assessment and early warning requires providing accurate information at the required scale, useful for multiple decision-makers within realistic institutional capacities.     

Contaminant concentrations in whole-body fish and shellfish from US estuaries

Persistent bioaccumulative and toxic (PBT) pollutants are chemical contaminants that pose risks to ecosystems and human health. For these reasons, available tissue contaminant data from the US EPA Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program’s National Coastal Assessment were examined to estimate to what areal extent PBTs are found in US estuarine resources. The data document composite, whole-body tissue chemical concentrations for 736 sampling sites across Northeast, Southeast, Gulf of Mexico, and West Coast estuaries. Tissue chemical concentrations were compared to US EPA non-cancer risk guidelines for recreational fishers, because of a lack of ecological guidelines for these chemical concentrations. Samples were analyzed for 23 PAH compounds, 21 PCB congeners, 6 DDT derivatives and metabolites, 14 chlorinated pesticides (other than DDT) and 13 metals, including mercury. Total PCBs were found to exceed recreational fisher guidelines most frequently (31% of samples evaluated), followed by mercury (29%), total PAHs (21%), and DDT and its metabolites, DDD and DDE (11%). Toxaphene, cadmium and dieldrin were found but in fewer than 1% of the samples.     

Recovery of sulfate saturated soils in the Plynlimon catchments, mid-Wales following reductions in atmospheric S inputs from the 1980s to 2011

Sulfate adsorption capacity of B-horizons of base-poor, predominantly stagnopodzol, soils from the Plynlimon catchments, mid-Wales was determined by combination of laboratory adsorption and desorption isotherms. Results show that sulfate adsorption capacity of a range of stagnopodzol (Histic-stagno-podzol (Leptic), WRB), brown podzolic soil (Histic-umbrisol (Leptic), WRB) and stagnohumic gley (Histic-stagno-gleysol, WRB) B-horizons was positively related to the amounts of extractable (pyrophosphate and oxalate) Fe + Al, with the stagnopodzol and brown podzolic soil Bs horizon having the largest adsorption capacity and stagnohumic gley Bg horizon the smallest adsorption capacity. Results show that dissolved organic carbon (DOC) has a negative but limited effect on sulfate adsorption in these soils. Results obtained from a set of historical soil samples revealed that the grassland brown podzolic soil Bs horizon and afforested stagnopodzol Bs horizon were highly saturated with sulfate in the 1980s, at 63% and 89% respectively, whereas data from some recently sampled soil from two sites revisited in 2010-11 indicates that percentage sulfate adsorption saturation has since fallen substantially, to 41% and 50% respectively. Between 1984 and 2009 the annual rainfall-weighted mean excess SO(4)-S concentration in bulk precipitation declined linearly from 0.37 mg S l(-1) to 0.17 mg S l(-1). Over the same period, flow weighted annual mean stream water SO(4)-S concentrations decreased approximately linearly from 1.47 mg S l(-1) to 0.97 mg S l(-1) in the plantation afforested Hafren catchment compared to a drop from 1.25 to 0.69 mg S l(-1) in the adjacent moorland catchment of the Afon Gwy. In flux terms, the mean decrease in annual stream water SO(4)-S flux has been approximately 0.4 kg S ha(-1) yr(-1), whilst the recovery in stream water quality in the Afon Cyff grassland catchment has been partly offset by loss of SO(4)-S by desorption from the soil sulfur pool of approximately 0.2 kg S ha(-1) yr(-1).     

Equivalency of a personal dust monitor to the current United States coal mine respirable dust sampler

The United States National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, through an informal partnership with industry, labor, and the United States Mine Safety and Health Administration, has developed and tested a new instrument known as the Personal Dust Monitor (PDM). The new dust monitor is an integral part of the cap lamp that coal miners normally carry to work and provides continuous information about the concentration of respirable coal mine dust within the breathing zone of that individual. Previous laboratory testing demonstrated that there is a 95% confidence that greater than 95% of individual PDM measurements fall within +/-25% of reference measurements. The work presented in this paper focuses on the relationship between the PDM and respirable dust concentrations currently measured by a coal mine dust personal sampler unit utilizing a 10 mm Dorr-Oliver nylon cyclone. The United Kingdom Mining Research Establishment instrument, used as the basis for coal mine respirable dust standards, had been designed specifically to match the United Kingdom British Medical Research Council (BMRC) criterion. The personal sampler is used with a 1.38 multiplier to convert readings to the BMRC criterion. A stratified random sampling design incorporating a proportionate allocation strategy was used to select a sample of mechanized mining units representative of all US underground coal mines. A sample of 180 mechanized mining units was chosen, representing approximately 20% of the mechanized mining units in production at the time the sample was selected. A total of 129 valid PDM/personal sampler dust sample sets were obtained. A weighted linear regression analysis of this data base shows that, in comparison with the personal sampler, the PDM requires a mass equivalency conversion multiplier of 1.05 [95% C.I.=(1.03, 1.08)] when the small intercept term is removed from the analysis. Removal of the intercept term results in a personal sampler-equivalent concentration increase of 2.9% at a PDM measurement of 2.0 mg m(-3).     

Spatial variation of volatile organic compounds in a "Hot Spot" for air pollution

The spatial variations of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were characterized in the Village of Waterfront South neighborhood (WFS), a "hot spot" for air toxics in Camden, NJ. This was accomplished by conducting "spatial saturation sampling" for 11 VOCs using 3500 OVM passive samplers at 22 sites in WFS and 16 sites in Copewood/Davis Streets (CDS) neighborhood, an urban reference area located ～1000 m east of the WFS. Sampling durations were 24 and 48 h. For all 3 sampling campaigns (2 in summer and 1 in winter), the spatial variations and median concentrations of toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes (TEX) were found significantly higher (p < 0.05) in WFS than in CDS, where the spatial distributions of these compounds were relatively uniform. The highest concentrations of methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) (maximum of 159 μg m(-3)) were always found at one site close to a car scrapping facility in WFS during each sampling campaign. The spatial variation of benzene in WFS was found to be marginally higher (p = 0.057) than in CDS during one sampling campaign, but similar in the other two sampling periods. The results obtained from the analyses of correlation among all species and the proximity of sampling site to source indicated that local stationary sources in WFS have significant impact on MTBE and BTEX air pollution in WFS, and both mobile sources and some of the stationary sources in WFS contributed to the ambient levels of these species measured in CDS. The homogenous spatial distributions (%RSD < 24%) and low concentrations of chloroform (0.02-0.23 μg m(-3)) and carbon tetrachloride (0.45-0.51 μg m(-3)) indicated no significant local sources in the study areas. Further, results showed that the sampling at the fixed monitoring site may under- or over-estimate air pollutant levels in a "hot spot" area, suggesting that the "spatial saturation sampling" is necessary for conducting accurate assessment of air pollution and personal exposure in a community with a high density of sources.