Designing the next generation of climate adaptation research for development

Adaptation research has changed significantly in recent years as funders and researchers seek to encourage greater impact, ensure value for money and promote interdisciplinarity across the natural and social sciences. While these developments are inherently positive, they also bring fresh challenges. With this in mind, this paper presents an agenda for the next generation of climate adaptation research for development. The agenda is based on insights from a dialogue session held at the 2016 Adaptation Futures conference as well as drawing on the collective experience of the authors. We propose five key areas that need to be changed in order to meet the needs of future adaptation research, namely: increasing transparency and consultation in research design; encouraging innovation in the design and delivery of adaptation research programmes; demonstrating impact on the ground; addressing incentive structures; and promoting more effective brokering, knowledge management and learning. As new international funding initiatives start to take shape, we underscore the importance of learning from past experiences and scaling-up of successful innovations in research funding models.

     

Modeling Diapause Termination of Rhipicephalus Appendiculatus using Statistical Tools to Detect Sudden Behavioral Changes and Time Dependencies

This paper presents statistical methodology to analyze longitudinal binary responses for which a sudden change in the response occurs in time. Probability plots, transition matrices, and change-point models and more advanced techniques such as generalized auto-regression models and hidden Markov chains are presented and applied on a study on the activity of Rhipicephalus appendiculatus, the major vector of Theileria parva, a fatal disease in cattle. This study presents individual measurements on female R. appendiculatus, which are terminating their diapause (resting status) and become active. Comprehending activity patterns is very important to better understand the ecology of R. appendiculatus. The model indicates that activity and non-activity act in an absorbing way meaning that once a tick becomes active it shows a tendency to remain active. The change-point model estimates that the sudden change in activity happens on December 10. The reaction of ticks on acceleration and changes in rainfall and temperature indicates that ticks can sense climatic changes. The study revealed the underlying not visually observable states during diapause development of the adult tick of R. appendiculatus. These states could be related to phases during the dynamic event of diapause development and post-diapause activity in R. appendiculatus.     

Seasonal distribution patterns of juvenile loggerhead sea turtles (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Caretta caretta</Emphasis>) following capture from a shipping channel in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean

Thirty-four juvenile loggerhead sea turtles captured by trawling from the Charleston, South Carolina (USA), shipping channel (32°42′N; −79°47′W) between May 2004 and August 2007 were tagged with satellite transmitters to assess the extent to which they remained near the capture location given their collection along a seasonal migratory corridor. Seventy-five percent of juveniles were classified as seasonal residents. Migrants predominantly swam north in the spring and nomads wandered south in the summer, but predictive indicators for non-resident status were not identified. All but one juvenile generally remained south of 34°N, within 40 km of shore, and in waters <30 m deep throughout the year. Nine of 14 loggerhead sea turtles monitored during the winter remained exclusively over the continental shelf, three briefly occurred in oceanic habitats, and two foraged extensively in oceanic habitats. Residents distributed >15 km from shore between spring and autumn were three times as likely to occur in oceanic habitats in winter. Modest seasonal movements contrasted with adults tagged at similar latitudes and with juveniles tagged further north and suggest distinct foraging groups within a regional foraging ground.     

Distributional patterns of adult male loggerhead sea turtles (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Caretta caretta</Emphasis>) in the vicinity of Cape Canaveral,Florida, USA during and after a major annual breeding aggregation

Satellite transmitters were attached to 25 reproductively active and four inactive adult male loggerhead sea turtles (86.6–107.0 cm SCLmin) captured from the Port Canaveral, FL, USA shipping channel to assess horizontal and vertical distributions. During the breeding period, male loggerheads aggregated (44% of 755 turtle days) in a 117.6 km² core area that encompassed the shipping channel. Median dive duration during the breeding period was 27 min (IQR = 15–42 min) and males spent 4% (IQR = 3–5%) of the time at the surface, with significantly shorter dives associated with reproductively active males. Migrant and resident males dispersed concurrently, with residents shifting > 30 km east across the continental shelf over a more protracted departure schedule than migrants. Dive duration and time spent at the surface increased through the fall. Cluster analysis revealed the strongest association for dive duration with sea state during and after the breeding period, with significantly longer dives during more turbulent conditions. In contrast, univariate associations with surface interval duration were not elucidated.     

Normal fetal cardiac anatomy–a basis for the echocardiographic detection of abnormalities

Real-time examination of the fetal heart in 350 pregnancies has allowed a composite picture of normal fetal cardiac anatomy to be established and echocardiographic interpretation has been confirmed by anatomical studies. Two echocardiographic sections are readily obtainable and are suggested as applicable to routine scanning but the specialist nature of interpreting abnormalities is stressed. Six abnormalities have been suspected during the study and five confirmed anatomically or at cardiac catheterization. In view of the low incidence of congenital heart disease in a normal obstetric population, high risk groups should perhaps be selected for cardiac scanning at the present time. These include mothers of previously affected babies, diabetic mothers and certain abnormalities of pregnancy. Fetal ascites is particularly important, being present in three of the four proven cases of cardiac abnormality.     

A spatial approach to combatting wildlife crime

Poaching can have devastating impacts on animal and plant numbers, and in many countries has reached crisis levels, with illegal hunters employing increasingly sophisticated techniques. We used data from an 8‐year study in Savé Valley Conservancy, Zimbabwe, to show how geographic profiling—a mathematical technique originally developed in criminology and recently applied to animal foraging and epidemiology—can be adapted for use in investigations of wildlife crime. The data set contained information on over 10,000 incidents of illegal hunting and the deaths of 6,454 wild animals. We used a subset of data for which the illegal hunters’ identities were known. Our model identified the illegal hunters’ home villages based on the spatial locations of the hunting incidences (e.g., snares). Identification of the villages was improved by manipulating the probability surface inside the conservancy to reflect the fact that although the illegal hunters mostly live outside the conservancy, the majority of hunting occurs inside the conservancy (in criminology terms, commuter crime). These results combined with rigorous simulations showed for the first time how geographic profiling can be combined with GIS data and applied to situations with more complex spatial patterns, for example, where landscape heterogeneity means some parts of the study area are less likely to be used (e.g., aquatic areas for terrestrial animals) or where landscape permeability differs (e.g., forest bats tend not to fly over open areas). More broadly, these results show how geographic profiling can be used to target antipoaching interventions more effectively and more efficiently and to develop management strategies and conservation plans in a range of conservation scenarios.     

Fetal cardiac scanning today

The ability to examine the structure of the fetal heart in real-time started over 30 years ago now. The field has seen very great advances since then, both in terms of technical improvements in ultrasound equipment and in dissemination of operator skills. A great deal has been learnt about normal cardiac function in the human fetus throughout gestation and how it is affected by pathologies of pregnancy. There is increasing recognition of abnormal heart structure during routine obstetric scanning, allowing referral for specialist diagnosis and counselling. It is now possible to make accurate diagnosis of cardiac malformations as early as 12 weeks of gestation. Early diagnosis of a major cardiac malformation in the fetus can provide the parents with a comprehensive prognosis, enabling them to make the most informed choice about the management of the pregnancy. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.