Modelling and experimental studies on the transfer of radionuclides to fruit

Although fruit is an important component of the diet, the extent to which it contributes to radiological exposure remains unclear, partially as a consequence of uncertainties in models and data used to assess transfer of radionuclides in the food chain. A Fruits Working Group operated as part of the IAEA BIOMASS (BIOsphere Modelling and ASSessment) programme from 1997 to 2000, with the aim of improving the robustness of the models that are used for radiological assessment. The Group completed a number of modelling and experimental activities including: (i) a review of experimental, field and modelling information on the transfer of radionuclides to fruit; (ii) discussion of recently completed or ongoing experimental studies; (iii) development of a database on the transfer of radionuclides to fruit; (iv) development of a conceptual model for fruit and (v) two model intercomparison studies and a model validation study. The Group achieved significant advances in understanding the processes involved in transfer of radionuclides to fruit. The work demonstrated that further experimental and modelling studies are required to ensure that the current generation of models can be applied to a wide range of scenarios.     

Sources of uncertainty in model predictions: lessons learned from the IAEA Forest and Fruit Working Group model intercomparisons

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), through the BIOMASS program, has provided a unique international forum for assessing the relative contribution of different sources of uncertainty associated with environmental modeling. The methodology and guidance for dealing with parameter uncertainty have been fairly well developed and quantitative tools such as Monte-Carlo modeling are often recommended. The issue of model uncertainty is still rarely addressed in practical applications and the use of several alternative models to derive a range of model outputs (similar to what was done in IAEA model intercomparisons) is one of a few available techniques. This paper addresses the often overlooked issue of what we call 'modeler uncertainty,' i.e., differences in problem formulation, model implementation and parameter selection originating from subjective interpretation of the problem at hand. This study uses results from the Fruit and Forest Working Groups created under the BIOMASS program (BIOsphere Modeling and ASSessment). The greatest uncertainty was found to result from modelers' interpretation of scenarios and approximations made by modelers. In scenarios that were unclear for modelers, the initial differences in model predictions were as high as seven orders of magnitude. Only after several meetings and discussions about specific assumptions did the differences in predictions by various models merge. Our study shows that the parameter uncertainty (as evaluated by a probabilistic Monte-Carlo assessment) may have contributed over one order of magnitude to the overall modeling uncertainty. The final model predictions ranged between one and three orders of magnitude, depending on the specific scenario. This study illustrates the importance of problem formulation and implementation of an analytic-deliberative process in fate and transport modeling and risk characterization.     

Engineering meets institutions: an interdisciplinary approach to the management of resilience

Resilience management stretches across the decoupled domains of community, corporate, and public governance. As a result, fostering resilience needs a governance structure that supports collective actions and integrates fragmented fields with different institutional frameworks. In this study, we carry out a review of three different perspectives on resilience -engineering, social, and organizational- in order to explore resilience management in the context of governance of infrastructure systems. We discuss the common practices to address resilience of engineering systems, the need and current trend for integration of institutions into these practices through formal (e.g., policies and regulations) as well as informal mechanisms (e.g., trust, norms, and shared cognitive structures). To illustrate our theorizing, we provide three illustrative case studies. The cases highlight the barriers and enablers across the three perspectives and highlight the inter-organizational context of management of resilience. We uncovered organizational dynamics such as the necessity of establishing critical functionality through organizational capacity for stakeholder engagement, the need for diverse organizations to address institutional complexity in management of resilience, and the importance of decoupling in aligning the outcomes of resilience management practices with policies. We suggest an agenda for future research on managing practices associated with management of resilience.     

A performance-based tabular approach for joint systematic improvement of risk control and resilience applied to telecommunication grid,gas network,and ultrasound localization system

Environment Systems and Decisions - Organizational and technical approaches have proven successful in increasing the performance and preventing risks at socio-technical systems at all scales....     

Risk management is not enough: a conceptual model for resilience and adaptation-based vulnerability assessments

The US government has focused considerable attention on enhancing our society’s ability to protect critical systems and services from disruptive events. Over the past decade, federal agencies have bolstered their efforts to identify and minimize threats using traditional risk-based approaches such as continuity of operations and disaster risk reduction processes. However, these valuable risk identification and management tools are limited because they rely upon foreseeable factor analyses of steady-state systems with predictable hazard frequencies and severities. In assessing the capability of complex adaptive systems to cope with disruptions, an overemphasis upon engineering resilience through risk management and planning for what is predictable may cloud or detract from our efforts to better understand a system’s emergent capabilities to withstand disruptions that are unforeseeable. This article contends that augmenting traditional risk approaches through the incorporation of methodologies grounded in socio-ecological system (SES) resilience principles offers a potential avenue for improving our agencies’ abilities to assess and manage both known and unknown risks. We offer a notional rationale for broadening our examination of system vulnerabilities and present a conceptual model that combines engineering and SES resilience paradigms to facilitate the identification, assessment, and management of system vulnerabilities. The Military Installation Resilience Assessment model described herein applies risk and resilience principles to evaluate whole systems, focusing on interconnections and their functionality in facilitating response and adaptation.     

Equilibrium of radiocesium with stable cesium within the biological cycle of contaminated forest ecosystems

Concentrations of (137)Cs and stable Cs were determined in plant, mushroom, lichen and soil samples collected at two forest sites with different contamination levels in Belarus in 1998. The concentration of (137)Cs in soil was the highest in near-surface organic layers (Of and Oh horizons) and decreased with depth in the mineral layers, whereas the concentrations of stable Cs were almost constant in the soil profile. The levels of (137)Cs and stable Cs in biological samples varied depending both on the species and the plant part sampled. Even though different species and parts of the same species were included, the concentration ratios of (137)Cs to stable Cs were fairly constant for samples collected at the same forest site, and were in the same order of magnitude as the (137)Cs to stable Cs ratios for the organic soil layers. This finding suggests that (137)Cs, mainly deposited on the forest ecosystems from the Chernobyl accident in 1986, was well mixed with stable Cs within the biological cycle in the forest ecosystems by 1998. The transfer factor for each biological sample of (137)Cs was almost the same as that of stable Cs, if they were calculated based on the concentrations in the Of + Oh layer. This suggests that the stable-Cs-based transfer factor could be used as equilibrium transfer factor of (137)Cs for different types of biological samples in the forest.     

Radionuclide migration in forest ecosystems--results of a model validation study

The primary objective of the IAEA's BIOMASS Forest Working Group (FWG) was to bring together experimental radioecologists and modellers to facilitate the exchange of information which could be used to improve our ability to understand and forecast radionuclide transfers within forests. This paper describes a blind model validation exercise which was conducted by the FWG to test nine models which members of the group had developed in response to the need to predict the fate of radiocaesium in forests in Europe after the Chernobyl accident. The outcomes and conclusions of this exercise are summarised. It was concluded that, as a group, the models are capable of providing an envelope of predictions which can be expected to enclose experimental data for radiocaesium contamination in forests over the time scale tested. However, the models are subject to varying degrees of conceptual uncertainty which gives rise to a very high degree of divergence between individual model predictions, particularly when forecasting edible mushroom contamination. Furthermore, the forecasting capability of the models over future decades currently remains untested.