A Bayesian network approach to modelling land-use decisions under environmental policy incentives in the Brazilian Amazon

ABSTRACT

Deforestation driven by agricultural expansion is a major threat to the biodiversity of the Amazon Basin. Modelling how deforestation responds to environmental policy implementation has thus become a policy relevant scientific undertaking. However, empirical parameterization of land-use/cover change (LUCC) models is challenging due to the high complexity and uncertainty of land-use decisions. Bayesian Network (BN) modelling provides an effective framework to integrate various data sources including expert knowledge. In this study, we integrate remote sensing products with data from farm-household surveys and a decision game to model LUCC at the BR-163, in Brazil. Our ‘business as usual’ scenario indicates cumulative forest cover loss in the study region of 8,000 km² between 2014 and 2030, whereas ‘intensified law-enforcement’ would reduce cumulative deforestation to 1,600 km² over the same time interval. Our findings underline the importance of conservation law enforcement in modulating the impact of agricultural market incentives on land cover change.     

Soil Lead at Elementary Public Schools: Comparison Between School Properties and Residential Neighbourhoods of New Orleans

Soil studies, conducted in Maryland, Minnesota and Louisiana, have described the urban pattern of lead contamination. They have shown that the highest amounts of lead cluster within the interior of the largest cities. The results of the New Orleans urban patterns of distribution of soil lead provided the basis for further study. The hypothesis was tested that elementary school properties have the same pattern of soil lead contamination as their neighbouring residential communities. Thirty New Orleans Public Elementary Schools were selected for this study. Surface samples (2.5cm or 1 inch depth) were collected from playgrounds and next to entrances of each school. Results showed that soil lead on school properties follows the same relative contamination patterns (pvalue10^–5) as soil lead on residential properties of neighbouring communities. Schools however, have significantly lower lead contamination than the neighbouring residential properties. Innercity school properties present a higher risk of soil lead exposure than mid and outercity schools. Soils next to innercity school entrances showed the highest lead, with 18.5% having concentrations over 400gg^–1. Systematic landscaping around the school entrances would significantly reduce the hazard from lead dust contaminated soils.     

Mosaicism for trisomy 12: Four cases with varying outcomes

Trisomy 12 observed in chorionic villus sampling (CVS) may reflect generalized mosaicism or indicate mosaicism confined to only the placenta. In this report, four cases of trisomy 12 observed in CVS or cultured placental biopsies with varying outcomes are presented. Seven dinucleotide repeat polymorphisms for chromosome 12 were used to determine the chromosome 12 origins in the fetus or child and to delineate the mechanism(s) that gave rise to the trisomy. In two cases (cases A and C), the mosaicism was confined to the placenta, resulting in normal liveborns. Although, in one case, the molecular results suggested an apparent duplication of one paternal chromosome 12 in the placenta, normal biparental inheritance was found in the diploid fetal cell line in both cases. In two other cases (cases B and D), trisomy 12 was observed in both extraembryonic and fetal tissues. In one of these pregnancies, a child was born by Caesarean section at 37 weeks because of intrauterine growth retardation and oligohydramnios, and resulted in neonatal death. Molecular markers and fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) revealed low-level trisomy 12 mosaicism in the spleen. In the fourth case, fetal abnormalities were detected on ultrasound and low-level trisomy 12 mosaicism was observed in amniotic fluid cells using conventional cytogenetics and FISH. Molecular markers revealed a maternal meiosis I non-disjunction of chromosome 12 in DNA from a cultured placental biopsy. Although predicting the outcomes of pregnancies involving confined placental mosaicism remains difficult, molecular techniques are valuable tools for distinguishing uniparental from biparental disomy and mechanisms of mosaicism.     

Investigation of real-life operating patterns of wood-burning appliances using stack temperature data

ABSTRACT

A study was undertaken to identify patterns of consumer use of outdoor wood boilers or outdoor wood furnaces (technically referred to as outdoor wood-fired hydronic heaters (OWHHs)) and indoor wood stoves (IWSs) to inform the development of performance testing protocols that reflect real-life operating conditions. These devices are manually fed, and their usage protocols are a function of a number of variables, including user habits, household characteristics, and environmental factors. In this study, researchers logged the stack wall temperatures of 4 OWHH and 20 IWS units in the states of New York and Washington over two heating seasons. Stack wall temperature is an indicator of changes in combustion modes. Two algorithms were developed to identify usage modes and cold and warm start refueling events from the stack wall temperature time series. A linear correlation analysis was conducted to evaluate the effect of heat demand on usage patterns. The results and methods presented here will inform the cataloging of typical operational patterns of OWHHs and IWSs as a step in the development of performance testing procedures that represent actual in-home usage patterns.

Implications: Current US regulatory programs for residential wood heating use a certification program to assess emissions and efficiency performance. Testing under this program uses a test that burns 100% of a single, standardized wood fuel charge to assess performance at different steady-state load conditions. This study assessed in-field operational patterns to determine if the current certification approach accurately characterized typical homeowner use patterns. The data from this study can be used to inform revisions to testing methods to increase certification test comparability between lab and field performance.     

MIRABEL: models for integrated review and assessment of biodiversity in European landscapes

In this paper, we present the methodology and some results from the application of an integrating conceptual framework, MIRABEL, to analyze the consequences of environmental change for biodiversity. For 28 European countries, MIRABEL tabulates changes in the status of threatened habitats predicted to result from 10 environmental pressures. Regional variations in the severity of the pressures and impacts are taken into account by compiling separate impact tables for each of 13 Ecological Regions. Results suggest that agricultural intensification is one of the main threats, however, differences recorded by MIRABEL in the intensity of the pressures, their rate of change and their past and expected impacts on biodiversity in the various Ecological Regions is telling evidence of Europe's biogeographical variety, and of the need to take this into consideration when assessing environmental change.     

Recovery from acidification in European surface waters: a view to the future

There is now overwhelming documentation of large-scale chemical recovery from surface water acidification in Europe, but to date there has been little documentation of biological recovery. Modelling studies based on current emission reduction plans in Europe indicate that there will be further chemical recovery. The uncertainties in these scenarios mainly relate to the future behavior of nitrogen in the ecosystem and the effects of climate change. Four major climate-related confounding factors that may influence the chemical and biological recovery process are: i) increased frequency and severity of sea-salt episodes; ii) increased frequency and severity of drought; iii) increased turnover of organic carbon; iv) increased mineralization of nitrogen. International cooperative work to abate acidification has so far been very successful, but there is still a long way to go, and many potential setbacks. It is essential that future development of water chemistry and aquatic biota in acidified waterbodies continue to be monitored in relation to further emission reductions of S and N and future effects of climate change.     

Evidence for destruction of PCBs by the OH radical in urban atmospheres

Evidence for reaction of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congeners with the hydroxyl (OH) radical in the troposphere was observed in diurnal variations in ambient gas-phase PCB concentrations at three urban sampling sites located in the Chicago, IL; Baltimore, MD; and Jersey City, NJ urban/industrial areas. The magnitude of the depletion of individual PCB congeners decreased by about 10-20% for each additional chlorine substituent, reflecting slower reaction rates for higher MW congeners with the OH radical. Octa- and nonachlorobiphenyls, which are largely unreactive with the OH radical, were used as tracers to investigate the effects of dilution on diurnal variation. The environmental rate constants for disappearance of the PCBs range from about 1.0 day(-1) for trichlorobiphenyls to about 0.3 day(-1) for hexachlorobiphenyls. Assuming a OH radical concentration of 3 x 10(6) molecules cm (-3), the second-order rate constants for reaction of specific congeners with the OH radical are consistent with laboratory measurements. More importantly, the relative reactivity of PCB homologues agrees well with the relationship predicted by other researchers from laboratory measurements, suggesting that losses of PCBs during daytime tropospheric transport are due at least in part to reactions with the OH radical.     

Dynamics of Cd, Cu and Zn accumulation in organs and sub-cellular fractions in field transplanted juvenile yellow perch (Perca flavescens)

Juvenile yellow perch (Perca flavescens) were caught in a reference lake and transplanted to cages held within a lake impacted by mining activities, with elevated levels of aqueous bioavailable copper (Cu(2+)), zinc (Zn(2+)) and cadmium (Cd(2+)). Fish were sampled from the cages over 70 d and changes in metal concentrations were followed over time in the gills, gut, liver and kidney. In addition, the hepatic sub-cellular partitioning of the three metals was determined by differential centrifugation of liver samples, yielding the following fractions: cellular debris; organelles; heat-denaturable proteins (HDP); and heat-stable proteins (HSP) (including metallothionein). In transplanted fish, Cd concentrations increased in all the organs sampled, whereas Cu mainly increased in the gills, gut and liver but not the kidney; some slight accumulation of Zn occurred in the kidneys and gills of the transplanted fish. The sub-cellular partitioning results demonstrated that metal-handling strategies in juvenile yellow perch differed among metals. Cellular sequestration in the HSP fraction was an important strategy used by these fish in response to increased ambient Cd. Accumulation of Zn was not seen in the organs examined, indicating that transplanted perch were able to either reduce influx, or increase efflux rates of this metal. The response of yellow perch to elevated ambient Cu appeared to combine the strategies used for Cd and Zn, as both cellular sequestration and reduced accumulation were observed in transplanted fish.     

Dangerous student car drop-off behaviors and child pedestrian–motor vehicle collisions: An observational study

Objectives: The objective of this study was to examine the association between dangerous student car drop-off behaviors and historical child pedestrian–motor vehicle collisions (PMVCs) near elementary schools in Toronto, Canada.

Methods: Police-reported child PMVCs during school travel times from 2000 to 2011 were mapped within 200 m of 118 elementary schools. Observers measured dangerous student morning car drop-off behaviors and number of children walking to school during one day in 2011. A composite score of school social disadvantage was obtained from the Toronto District School Board. Built environment and traffic features were mapped and included as covariates. A multivariate Poisson regression was used to model the rates of PMVC/number of children walking and dangerous student car drop-off behaviors, adjusting for the built environment and social disadvantage.

Results: There were 45 child PMVCs, with 29 (64%) sustaining minor injuries resulting in emergency department visits. The mean collision rate was 2.9/10,000 children walking/year (SD = 6.7). Dangerous drop-off behaviors were observed in 104 schools (88%). In the multivariate analysis, each additional dangerous drop-off behavior was associated with a 45% increase in collision rates (incident rate ratio [IRR] = 1.45, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02, 2.07). Higher speed roads (IRR = 1.27, 95% CI, 1.13, 1.44) and social disadvantage (IRR = 2.99, 95% CI, 1.03, 8.68) were associated with higher collision rates.

Conclusions: Dangerous student car drop-off behaviors were associated with historical nonfatal child PMVC rates during school travel times near schools. Some caution must be taken in interpreting these results due small number of events and limitations in the data collection, because collision data were collected historically over a 12-year period, whereas driving behavior was only observed on a single day in 2011. Targeted multifaceted intervention approaches related to the built environment, enforcement, and education could address dangerous drop-off behaviors near schools to reduce child PMVCs and promote safe walking to school.