A Bayesian network approach to modelling land-use decisions under environmental policy incentives in the Brazilian Amazon

ABSTRACT

Deforestation driven by agricultural expansion is a major threat to the biodiversity of the Amazon Basin. Modelling how deforestation responds to environmental policy implementation has thus become a policy relevant scientific undertaking. However, empirical parameterization of land-use/cover change (LUCC) models is challenging due to the high complexity and uncertainty of land-use decisions. Bayesian Network (BN) modelling provides an effective framework to integrate various data sources including expert knowledge. In this study, we integrate remote sensing products with data from farm-household surveys and a decision game to model LUCC at the BR-163, in Brazil. Our ‘business as usual’ scenario indicates cumulative forest cover loss in the study region of 8,000 km² between 2014 and 2030, whereas ‘intensified law-enforcement’ would reduce cumulative deforestation to 1,600 km² over the same time interval. Our findings underline the importance of conservation law enforcement in modulating the impact of agricultural market incentives on land cover change.     

Mosaicism for trisomy 12: Four cases with varying outcomes

Trisomy 12 observed in chorionic villus sampling (CVS) may reflect generalized mosaicism or indicate mosaicism confined to only the placenta. In this report, four cases of trisomy 12 observed in CVS or cultured placental biopsies with varying outcomes are presented. Seven dinucleotide repeat polymorphisms for chromosome 12 were used to determine the chromosome 12 origins in the fetus or child and to delineate the mechanism(s) that gave rise to the trisomy. In two cases (cases A and C), the mosaicism was confined to the placenta, resulting in normal liveborns. Although, in one case, the molecular results suggested an apparent duplication of one paternal chromosome 12 in the placenta, normal biparental inheritance was found in the diploid fetal cell line in both cases. In two other cases (cases B and D), trisomy 12 was observed in both extraembryonic and fetal tissues. In one of these pregnancies, a child was born by Caesarean section at 37 weeks because of intrauterine growth retardation and oligohydramnios, and resulted in neonatal death. Molecular markers and fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) revealed low-level trisomy 12 mosaicism in the spleen. In the fourth case, fetal abnormalities were detected on ultrasound and low-level trisomy 12 mosaicism was observed in amniotic fluid cells using conventional cytogenetics and FISH. Molecular markers revealed a maternal meiosis I non-disjunction of chromosome 12 in DNA from a cultured placental biopsy. Although predicting the outcomes of pregnancies involving confined placental mosaicism remains difficult, molecular techniques are valuable tools for distinguishing uniparental from biparental disomy and mechanisms of mosaicism.     

Investigation of real-life operating patterns of wood-burning appliances using stack temperature data

ABSTRACT

A study was undertaken to identify patterns of consumer use of outdoor wood boilers or outdoor wood furnaces (technically referred to as outdoor wood-fired hydronic heaters (OWHHs)) and indoor wood stoves (IWSs) to inform the development of performance testing protocols that reflect real-life operating conditions. These devices are manually fed, and their usage protocols are a function of a number of variables, including user habits, household characteristics, and environmental factors. In this study, researchers logged the stack wall temperatures of 4 OWHH and 20 IWS units in the states of New York and Washington over two heating seasons. Stack wall temperature is an indicator of changes in combustion modes. Two algorithms were developed to identify usage modes and cold and warm start refueling events from the stack wall temperature time series. A linear correlation analysis was conducted to evaluate the effect of heat demand on usage patterns. The results and methods presented here will inform the cataloging of typical operational patterns of OWHHs and IWSs as a step in the development of performance testing procedures that represent actual in-home usage patterns.

Implications: Current US regulatory programs for residential wood heating use a certification program to assess emissions and efficiency performance. Testing under this program uses a test that burns 100% of a single, standardized wood fuel charge to assess performance at different steady-state load conditions. This study assessed in-field operational patterns to determine if the current certification approach accurately characterized typical homeowner use patterns. The data from this study can be used to inform revisions to testing methods to increase certification test comparability between lab and field performance.     

Comparison of a novel passive sampler to standard water-column sampling for organic contaminants associated with wastewater effluents entering a New Jersey stream

Four water samples collected using standard depth and width water-column sampling methodology were compared to an innovative passive, in situ, sampler (the polar organic chemical integrative sampler or POCIS) for the detection of 96 organic wastewater-related contaminants (OWCs) in a stream that receives agricultural, municipal, and industrial wastewaters. Thirty-two OWCs were identified in POCIS extracts whereas 9-24 were identified in individual water-column samples demonstrating the utility of POCIS for identifying contaminants whose occurrence are transient or whose concentrations are below routine analytical detection limits. Overall, 10 OWCs were identified exclusively in the POCIS extracts and only six solely identified in the water-column samples, however, repetitive water samples taken using the standard method during the POCIS deployment period required multiple trips to the sampling site and an increased number of samples to store, process, and analyze. Due to the greater number of OWCs detected in the POCIS extracts as compared to individual water-column samples, the ease of performing a single deployment as compared to collecting and processing multiple water samples, the greater mass of chemical residues sequestered, and the ability to detect chemicals which dissipate quickly, the passive sampling technique offers an efficient and effective alternative for detecting OWCs in our waterways for wastewater contaminants.     

Recovery from acidification in European surface waters: a view to the future

There is now overwhelming documentation of large-scale chemical recovery from surface water acidification in Europe, but to date there has been little documentation of biological recovery. Modelling studies based on current emission reduction plans in Europe indicate that there will be further chemical recovery. The uncertainties in these scenarios mainly relate to the future behavior of nitrogen in the ecosystem and the effects of climate change. Four major climate-related confounding factors that may influence the chemical and biological recovery process are: i) increased frequency and severity of sea-salt episodes; ii) increased frequency and severity of drought; iii) increased turnover of organic carbon; iv) increased mineralization of nitrogen. International cooperative work to abate acidification has so far been very successful, but there is still a long way to go, and many potential setbacks. It is essential that future development of water chemistry and aquatic biota in acidified waterbodies continue to be monitored in relation to further emission reductions of S and N and future effects of climate change.     

Evidence for destruction of PCBs by the OH radical in urban atmospheres

Evidence for reaction of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congeners with the hydroxyl (OH) radical in the troposphere was observed in diurnal variations in ambient gas-phase PCB concentrations at three urban sampling sites located in the Chicago, IL; Baltimore, MD; and Jersey City, NJ urban/industrial areas. The magnitude of the depletion of individual PCB congeners decreased by about 10-20% for each additional chlorine substituent, reflecting slower reaction rates for higher MW congeners with the OH radical. Octa- and nonachlorobiphenyls, which are largely unreactive with the OH radical, were used as tracers to investigate the effects of dilution on diurnal variation. The environmental rate constants for disappearance of the PCBs range from about 1.0 day(-1) for trichlorobiphenyls to about 0.3 day(-1) for hexachlorobiphenyls. Assuming a OH radical concentration of 3 x 10(6) molecules cm (-3), the second-order rate constants for reaction of specific congeners with the OH radical are consistent with laboratory measurements. More importantly, the relative reactivity of PCB homologues agrees well with the relationship predicted by other researchers from laboratory measurements, suggesting that losses of PCBs during daytime tropospheric transport are due at least in part to reactions with the OH radical.     

Development of a sample equilibration system for the TEOM continuous PM monitor

In recent years, scientific discussion has included the influence of thermodynamic conditions (e.g., temperature, relative humidity, and filter face velocity) on PM retention efficiency of filter-based samplers and monitors. Method-associated thermodynamic conditions can, in some instances, dramatically influence the presence of particle-bound water and other light-molecular-weight chemical components such as particulate nitrates and certain organic compounds. The measurement of fine particle mass presents a new challenge for all PM measurement methods, since a relatively greater fraction of the mass is semi-volatile. The tapered element oscillating microbalance (TEOM) continuous PM monitor is a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) PM10 equivalent method (EQPM-1090079). Several hundred of these monitors are deployed throughout the United States. The TEOM monitor has the unique characteristic of providing direct PM mass measurement without the calibration uncertainty inherent in mass surrogate methods. In addition, it provides high-precision, near-real-time continuous data automatically. Much attention has been given to semi-volatile species retention of the TEOM method.     

Dynamics of Cd, Cu and Zn accumulation in organs and sub-cellular fractions in field transplanted juvenile yellow perch (Perca flavescens)

Juvenile yellow perch (Perca flavescens) were caught in a reference lake and transplanted to cages held within a lake impacted by mining activities, with elevated levels of aqueous bioavailable copper (Cu(2+)), zinc (Zn(2+)) and cadmium (Cd(2+)). Fish were sampled from the cages over 70 d and changes in metal concentrations were followed over time in the gills, gut, liver and kidney. In addition, the hepatic sub-cellular partitioning of the three metals was determined by differential centrifugation of liver samples, yielding the following fractions: cellular debris; organelles; heat-denaturable proteins (HDP); and heat-stable proteins (HSP) (including metallothionein). In transplanted fish, Cd concentrations increased in all the organs sampled, whereas Cu mainly increased in the gills, gut and liver but not the kidney; some slight accumulation of Zn occurred in the kidneys and gills of the transplanted fish. The sub-cellular partitioning results demonstrated that metal-handling strategies in juvenile yellow perch differed among metals. Cellular sequestration in the HSP fraction was an important strategy used by these fish in response to increased ambient Cd. Accumulation of Zn was not seen in the organs examined, indicating that transplanted perch were able to either reduce influx, or increase efflux rates of this metal. The response of yellow perch to elevated ambient Cu appeared to combine the strategies used for Cd and Zn, as both cellular sequestration and reduced accumulation were observed in transplanted fish.