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Keith W. Little Donald T. Lauria 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1989,25(4):755-764
ABSTRACT: A common framework for the analysis of water resources systems is the input-parameter-output representation. The system, described by its parameters, is driven by inputs and responds with outputs. To calibrate (estimate the parameters) models of these systems requires data on both inputs and outputs, both of which are subject to random errors. When one is uncertain as to whether the predominant source of error is associated with inputs or outputs, uncertainty also exists as to the correct specification of a calibration criterion. This paper develops and analyzes two alternative least squares criteria for calibrating a numerical water quality model. The first criterion assumes that errors are associated with inputs while the second assumes output errors. Statistical properties of the resulting estimators are examined under conditions of pure input or output error and mixed error conditions from a theoretical perspective and then using simulated results from a series of Monte Carlo experiments. 相似文献
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Incorporation of manure into cultivated soils is generally recommended to minimize nutrient losses. A 3-yr study was conducted to evaluate sediment and nutrient losses with different tillage methods (moldboard plow, heavy-duty cultivator, double disk, and no-incorporation) for incorporation of beef cattle manure in a silage barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) cropping system. Runoff depths, sediment losses, and surface and subsurface nutrient transfers were determined from manured and unmanured field plots at Lethbridge, Alberta, Canada. A Guelph rainfall simulator was used to generate 30 min of runoff. Sediment losses among our tillage treatments (137.4-203.6 kg ha(-1)) were not significantly different due to compensating differences in runoff depths. Mass losses of total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) in surface runoff were greatest from the no-incorporation (NI) treatments, with reductions in TP loads of 14% for double disk (DD), 43% for cultivator (CU), and 79% for moldboard plow (MP) treatments. Total N load reductions in 2002 were 26% for DD, 70% for CU, and 95% for MP treatments compared to the NI treatments. Nutrient losses following incorporation of manure with the DD or CU methods were not significantly different from the NI treatments. Manure treatments generally had lower runoff depths and sediment losses, and higher phosphorus and nitrogen losses than the control treatments. Subsurface concentrations of NH4-N, NO3-N, and TN were greatest from the MP treatments, whereas subsurface phosphorus concentrations were not affected by tillage method. Tillage with a cultivator or double disk minimized combined surface and subsurface nutrient losses immediately after annual manure applications. 相似文献
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James SM Little EE Semlitsch RD 《Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)》2004,132(3):523-532
The soil ecotoxicology literature has focused primarily on a few major taxa, to the neglect of other fossorial organisms such as amphibians. We selected cadmium (Cd) and the American toad (Bufo americanus) as a model contaminant and biological species to assess the impact of soil contamination on amphibian hibernation survival and post-hibernation condition. Soil sand composition (50, 70, 90%) and hydration (100, 150% water holding capacity (WHC)) were manipulated in addition to Cd concentration (0, 56, 165, 483 microg/g) to determine whether these soil properties affect toxicity. Soil Cd concentration significantly reduced survival and locomotor performance, and was correlated negatively with percent mass loss and positively with whole body Cd concentration. Higher sand content resulted in less mass loss and greater Cd uptake. Toads that were hibernated in 50% sand hydrated to 100% WHC had higher survival, less mass loss, and better sprint performance than those hibernated in 50% sand, 150% WHC. This study demonstrates that concentrations of Cd found in soil at highly contaminated sites can be bioaccumulated by hibernating amphibians and may reduce fitness. Differences in microhabitat use may cause species to vary in their exposure and susceptibility to soil contamination. The toxicity of Cd to amphibians could be greater in natural systems where there are multiple stressors and fluctuations in environmental variables. 相似文献