The relation between climate change in the Mediterranean region and global warming

Regional Environmental Change - The recent (twentieth century) and future (twenty-first century) climate evolution in the Mediterranean region is analyzed in relation to annual mean global surface...     

Evaluation of Flood and Landslide Risk to the Population of Italy

We have compiled a database of floods and landslides that occurred in Italy between AD 1279 and 2002 and caused deaths, missing persons, injuries, and homelessness. Analysis of the database indicates that more than 50,593 people died, went missing, or were injured in 2580 flood and landslide events. Harmful events were inventoried in 26.3% of the 8103 Italian municipalities. Fatal events were most frequent in the Alpine regions of northern Italy and were caused by both floods and landslides. In southern Italy, landslides were the principal agents of fatalities and were most numerous in the Campania region. Casualties were most frequent in the autumn. Fast-moving landslides, including rock falls, rockslides, rock avalanches, and debris flows, caused the largest number of deaths. In order to assess the overall risk posed by these processes, we merged the historical catalogs and identified 2682 “hydrogeomorphological” events that triggered single or multiple landslides and floods. We estimated individual risk through the calculation of mortality rates for both floods and landslides and compared these rates to the death rates for other natural, medical, and human-induced hazards in Italy. We used the frequency distribution of events with fatalities to ascertain the magnitude and frequency of the societal risks posed by floods and landslides. We quantified these risks in a Bayesian model that describes the probabilities of fatal flood and landslide events in Italy.     

Missing safety measures led to the jet fire and seven deaths at a steel plant in Turin. Dynamics and lessons learned

The Authors of this paper are the technical experts that were entrusted by the Public Prosecutor to conduct the technical inquiry into the accident that occurred in the ThyssenKrupp plant in Torino on December 6, 2007. The paper contains the results of the inquiry under the above mentioned point of view. The dynamics of the accident, the main causes and the consequences have been defined.This was an unusual accident from which important lessons can be learned. On December 6, a modest fire developed in the entry section of a pickling and annealing line in the TK plant in Turin. The eight workers on duty seized the firefighting equipment and started to try to extinguish the fire. The workers had portable fire extinguishers and a fire hydrant, so they had to get close to the fire to fight it. Suddenly, a violent jet fire, caused by the rupture of a hydraulic circuit, occurred. The flame instantaneously struck the eight workers while they were still fighting the fire. Seven workers suffered very serious burns, one died instantaneously while the other six had over the following month. One of the workers, who was partly protected by an operating machine, suffered only minor burns and survived. The paper contains some important lessons that have been learned from the present case, which demonstrate that the fire risk at pickling and annealing lines has generally been underestimated by the steel industry. The fire risk due to hydraulic actuators is also evident and new fire fighting strategies are suggested.     

Intrinsic vulnerability assessment of Sette Comuni Plateau aquifer (Veneto Region, Italy)

Maps illustrating the different degrees of vulnerability within a given area are integral to environmental protection and management policies. The assessment of the intrinsic vulnerability of karst areas is difficult since the type and stage of karst development and the related underground discharge behavior are difficult to determine and quantify. Geographic Information Systems techniques are applied to the evaluation of the vulnerability of an aquifer in the alpine karst area of the Sette Comuni Plateau, in the Veneto Region of northern Italy. The water resources of the studied aquifer are of particular importance to the local communities. This aquifer must therefore be protected from both inappropriate use as well as possible pollution. The SINTACS and SINTACS P(RO) K(ARST) vulnerability assessment methods have been utilized here to create the vulnerability map. SINTACS P(RO) K(ARST) is an adaptation of the parametric managerial model (SINTACS) to karst hydrostructures. The vulnerability map reveals vast zones (81% of the analyzed areas) with a high degree of vulnerability. The presence of well-developed karst structures in these highly vulnerable areas facilitate water percolation, thereby enhancing the groundwater vulnerability risk. Only 1.5 of the studied aquifer have extremely high-vulnerability levels, however these areas include all of the major springs utilized for human consumption. This vulnerability map of the Sette Comuni Plateau aquifer is an indispensable tool for both the effective management of water resources and as support to environmental planning in the Sette Comuni Plateau area.     

Environmental impact assessment of a WtE plant after structural upgrade measures

The study focuses on analysing the evolution of environmental impacts caused by a medium–large Italian WtE plant before and after revamping and maintenance operations, with the aim of providing an evaluation of how much these structural upgrade measures may affect the total environmental performance.LCA methodology was applied for the modelling and comparison of six WtE scenarios, each describing the main structural upgrades carried out in the plant over the years 1996–2011. The comparison was conducted by adopting 1 ton of MSW as the functional unit, and the net contribution from energy recovery to power generation was distinguished by defining consistent national grid electricity mixes for every year considered. The Ecoindicator99 2.09 impact assessment method was used to evaluate the contribution to midpoint and endpoint categories (e.g. carcinogens, respiratory inorganics and organics, climate change, damage to human health). Lastly, the “Pedigree quality matrix” was applied to verify the reliability and robustness of the model created.As expected, the results showed better environmental scores after both the implementation of new procedures and the integration of operations. However, while a net reduction of air emissions seems to be achievable through dedicated flue gas treatment technologies, outcomes underscored potentials for improving the management of bottom ash through the adoption of alternative options aimed to use that solid residue mainly as filler, and to decrease risks from its current disposal in landfill. If the same effort that is put into flue gas treatment were devoted to energy recovery, the targets for the WtE plant could be easily met, achieving a higher sustainability. This aspect is even more complex: national policies for implementing greener and renewable energy sources would result in a lower impact of the national energy mix and, hence, in a lower net avoided burden from energy recovery.The study confirmed the expected improvements, indicating quantitatively the lower environmental impact resulting from structural upgrade operations in a WtE plant. Furthermore, the work highlights the importance of considering the evolution of the national energy mix in LCA studies, especially during the present years of transition from fossil fuels to renewable sources.     

Applying habitat and population-density models to land-cover time series to inform IUCN Red List assessments

The IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature) Red List categories and criteria are the most widely used framework for assessing the relative extinction risk of species. The criteria are based on quantitative thresholds relating to the size, trends, and structure of species’ distributions and populations. However, data on these parameters are sparse and uncertain for many species and unavailable for others, potentially leading to their misclassification or classification as data deficient. We devised an approach that combines data on land-cover change, species-specific habitat preferences, population abundance, and dispersal distance to estimate key parameters (extent of occurrence, maximum area of occupancy, population size and trend, and degree of fragmentation) and hence predict IUCN Red List categories for species. We applied our approach to nonpelagic birds and terrestrial mammals globally (∼15,000 species). The predicted categories were fairly consistent with published IUCN Red List assessments, but more optimistic overall. We predicted 4.2% of species (467 birds and 143 mammals) to be more threatened than currently assessed and 20.2% of data deficient species (10 birds and 114 mammals) to be at risk of extinction. Incorporating the habitat fragmentation subcriterion reduced these predictions 1.5–2.3% and 6.4–14.9% (depending on the quantitative definition of fragmentation) for threatened and data deficient species, respectively, highlighting the need for improved guidance for IUCN Red List assessors on the application of this aspect of the IUCN Red List criteria. Our approach complements traditional methods of estimating parameters for IUCN Red List assessments. Furthermore, it readily provides an early-warning system to identify species potentially warranting changes in their extinction-risk category based on periodic updates of land-cover information. Given our method relies on optimistic assumptions about species distribution and abundance, all species predicted to be more at risk than currently evaluated should be prioritized for reassessment.     

Freshwater discharge from the drainage basin to the Venice Lagoon (Italy)

The twelve major tributaries of the Venice Lagoon (accounting for the 97% of the inputs from the drainage basin) were monitored in the framework of the DRAIN project (1998-2000) in order to obtain a detailed knowledge on the hydrological regimes and to measure the mean annual freshwater discharge from surface runoff. The study represents an essential step in the estimate of the pollutant load delivered to the lagoon that must necessarily be based on a solid understanding of the fluxes of material out of the drainage basin. Due to the influence of the tide in the majority of the gauging sections, a specific methodology for the measurement of the discharge was developed. The main results of the study are described, underlining the differences in the regime of the investigated streams. A rainfall-runoff analysis evidenced the different characteristics of the monitored tributaries, in terms of specific hydrological features, morphology of the individual sub-basins, management of the water resource and spatial distribution of rainfall. An estimate of the maximum peak discharge from the drainage basin is finally obtained from data of an extreme flood event occurred in November 1999.     

A new urban boundary layer and dispersion parameterization for an emergency response modeling system: Tests with the Joint Urban 2003 data set

A new urban parameterization for a fast-running dispersion prediction modeling system suitable for emergency response situations is introduced. The parameterization represents the urban convective boundary layer in the dispersion prediction system developed by the National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The performance of the modeling system is tested with data collected during the field campaign Joint Urban 2003 (JU03), held in July 2003 in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. Tests were performed using data from three intense operating periods held during daytime slightly unstable to unstable conditions. The system was run in operational mode using the meteorological data that would be available operationally at NARAC to test its effectiveness in emergency response conditions. The new parameterization considerably improves the performance of the original modeling system, by producing a better degree of pattern of correspondence between predictions and observations (as measured by Taylor diagrams), considerably reducing bias, and better capturing directional effects resulting in plume predictions whose shape and size better resemble the observations (via the measure of effectiveness). Furthermore, the new parameterization shows similar skills to urban modeling systems of similar or greater complexity. The parameterization performs the best at the three JU03 sensor arcs (1, 2, and 4 km downwind the release points), with fractional bias values ranging from 0.13 to 0.4, correlation values from 0.45 to 0.71, and centered root-mean-square error being reduced more than 50% in most cases. The urban parameterization has been tested with grid increments of 125, 250, 500 and 1000 m, performing best at 250 and 500 m. Finally, it has been found that representing the point source by a Gaussian distribution with an initial spread of particles leads to a better representation of the initial spread induced by near-source buildings, resulting in lower bias and improved correlation in downtown Oklahoma City.     

A Parallel Graded-Mesh FDTD Algorithm for Human–Antenna Interaction Problems

The finite difference time domain method (FDTD) is frequently used for the numerical solution of a wide variety of electromagnetic (EM) problems and, among them, those concerning human exposure to EM fields. In many practical cases related to the assessment of occupational EM exposure, large simulation domains are modeled and high space resolution adopted, so that strong memory and central processing unit power requirements have to be satisfied. To better afford the computational effort, the use of parallel computing is a winning approach; alternatively, subgridding techniques are often implemented. However, the simultaneous use of subgridding schemes and parallel algorithms is very new. In this paper, an easy-to-implement and highly-efficient parallel graded-mesh (GM) FDTD scheme is proposed and applied to human–antenna interaction problems, demonstrating its appropriateness in dealing with complex occupational tasks and showing its capability to guarantee the advantages of a traditional subgridding technique without affecting the parallel FDTD performance.