A Simple Framework for Incorporating Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts into Existing Water Resource Management Practices1

Gong, Gavin, Lucien Wang, Laura Condon, Alastair Shearman, and Upmanu Lall, 2010. A Simple Framework for Incorporating Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts Into Existing Water Resource Management Practices. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(3):574-585. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00435.x Abstract: Climate-based streamflow forecasting, coupled with an adaptive reservoir operation policy, can potentially improve decisions by water suppliers and watershed stakeholders. However, water suppliers are often wary of straying too far from their current management practices, and prefer forecasts that can be incorporated into existing system modeling tools. This paper presents a simple framework for utilizing streamflow forecasts that works within an existing management structure. Climate predictors are used to develop seasonal inflow forecasts. These are used to specify operating rules that connect to the probability of future (end of season) reservoir states, rather than to the current storage, as is done now. By considering both current storage and anticipated inflow, the likelihood of meeting management goals can be improved. The upper Delaware River Basin in the northeastern United States is used to demonstrate the basic idea. Physically plausible climate-based forecasts of March-April reservoir inflow are developed. Existing simulation tools and rule curves for the system are used to convert the inflow forecasts to reservoir level forecasts. Operating policies are revised during the forecast period to release less water during forecasts of low reservoir level. Hindcast simulations demonstrate reductions of 1.6% in the number of drought emergency days, which is a key performance measure. Forecasts with different levels of skill are examined to explore their utility.     

Possible involvement of plant ABC transporters in cadmium detoxification: a cDNA sub-microarray approach

As a nontolerant plant to a large number of toxic compounds, Arabidopsis thaliana is a suitable model to study regulation of genes involved in response to heavy metals. Using a cDNA-microarray approach, we identified some ABC transporters that are differentially regulated after cadmium treatments, making them putative candidates for being involved in Cd sequestration and redistribution in plants. Regarding yeast and fission yeast, in which Cd is able to form complexes either with glutathione (GSH) or phytochelatins (PC) subsequently transported into vacuoles via ABC transporters, it is also very likely that some plant ABC transporters are able to transport GS(2)-Cd or PC-Cd complexes into subcellular compartments or outside of the cell. The characterization of such transporters is of great interest for developing molecular biology approaches in phytoremediation.     

Concentrations of dissolved herbicides and pharmaceuticals in a small river in Luxembourg

Urban and agricultural areas affect the hydraulic patterns as well as the water quality of receiving drainage systems, especially of catchments smaller than 50 km(2). Urban runoff is prone to contamination due to pollutants like pesticides or pharmaceuticals. Agricultural areas are possible sources of nutrient and herbicide contamination for receiving water bodies. The pollution is derived from leaching by subsurface flow, as well as wash-off and erosion caused by surface runoff. In the Luxembourgish Mess River catchment, the pharmaceutical and pesticide concentrations are comparable with those detected by other authors in different river systems worldwide. Some investigated pesticide concentrations infringe current regulations. The maximum allowable concentration for diuron of 1.8 μg l(?-?1) is exceeded fourfold by measured 7.41 μg l(?-?1) in a flood event. The load of dissolved pesticides reaching the stream gauge is primarily determined by the amount applied to the surfaces within the catchment area. Storm water runoff from urban areas causes short-lived but high-pollutant concentrations and moderate loads, whereas moderate concentrations and high loads are representative for agricultural inputs to the drainage system. Dissolved herbicides, sulfonamides, tetracyclines, analgesics and hormones can be used as indicators to investigate runoff generation processes, including inputs from anthropogenic sources. The measurements prove that the influence of kinematic wave effects on the relationship between hydrograph and chemographs should not be neglected in smaller basins. The time lag shows that it is not possible to connect analysed substances of defined samples to the corresponding section of the hydrograph.     

可持续发展与零售部门的社会重要性

去年秋天世界可持续发展峰会(WSSD)倡议,要全面认识可持续发展的社会支柱作用,包括消除贫困、争取权利和公平,以及有收入的就业等问题.自从1992年地球峰会以来,这些已经成为国际自由工会联合会(ICFTU)、经济合作与发展组织的工会咨询委员会(TUAC)和全球工会联合会(GUF)优先解决的问题.     

ANALYSIS OF A KARSTIC AQUIFER MANAGEMENT PROBLEM BY FUZZY COMPOSITE PROGRAMMING1

ABSTRACT: A multiple objective framework for water resources problems possessing uncertain or imprecise elements is provided using distance-based concepts, fuzzy set theory, and fuzzy arithmetic. The case of regional management of a karstic aquifer in Hungary in which six conflicting objectives and six alternatives have been identified illustrates the methodology The objectives are classified into three groups of two objectives each, namely: (1) environmental (aesthetics, thermal springs temperature), (2) economic (mining, tourism), and (3) water quality (nitrates, phosphates). Both environmental objectives are formulated under fuzziness, and all objectives are scaled using the extension principle. Fuzzy compromise programming (FCP-I) is then applied; here, all six objectives are entered in a single l_p norm measuring the distance between each alternative and an ideal point. Next, fuzzy composite programming (FCP-II) is developed; here, a trade off is first made within each group of objectives, and then an upper level trade-off takes place between the three groups. The fuzzy numbers describing each alternative as a result from applying these techniques are ranked to yield an ordering of the alternatives. The results of applying FCP.I, FCP-II, and two different ordering techniques are compared. The FCP-II technique appears to provide a relatively simple approach at hierarchical or multilevel multiple objective decision-making, where uncertainty is described by fuzziness. (KEY TERMS: compromise programming; fuzzy arithmetic; fuzzy sets; hierarchical criteria; karstic aquifer; l_p, norms; mining; multiple objectives; thermal springs.)     

Dual Objective Control of Nutrient Loading into a Lake1

ABSTRACT: The control of nutrient loading into a water body is approached from a multiobjective viewpoint. The example of phosphorus (P) loading into Lake Balaton, Hungary, is used as a case study. The element P is chosen because it appears to be the limiting factor of eutrophication in the lake considered, as in many other lakes. About one-half of P loading originates from nonpoint sources; furthermore, the mechanism is poorly known and only few observation data are available. The objective of eutrophication control is to minimize P loading, while the objective of watershed management is to maximize agricultural revenue. These two objectives often appear to be in conflict. A discrete set of alternative control methods is defined, consisting in controlling a mix of the following elements: point sources, runoff, fertilizer type and application, cropping management, erosion, and sedimentation. The system dynamics is provided by a previously developed stochastic model, whose output is an empirical prohability density function (pdf) of P-loading reflecting the control policy. A compromise solution of “satisfactum” can then be chosen as a mix of the best ranked policies.     

SPACE-TIME VALIDATION OF A THUNDERSTORM RAINFALL MODEL1

A probability model for predicting the occurrence and magnitude of thunderstorm rainfall developed in the southwestern United States was tested in the metropolitan Chicago area with reasonable success, especially for the moderate to the extreme runoff-producing events. The model requires the estimation of two parameters, the mean number of events per year and the conditional probability of rain given that an event has occurred. To tie in the data from more than one gage in an area, an event can be defined in several ways, such as the areal mean rainfall exceeding 0.50 inch and at least one gage receiving more than 1.0 inch. This type of definition allows both of the model parameters to be obtained from daily warm-season rainfall records. Regardless of the definition used a Poisson distribution adequately described the number of events per season. A negative binomial distribution was derived as representing the frequency density function for rainfall where several gages are employed in defining a storm. Chicago data fit both distributions very well at events with relatively high return periods. The results indicate the possibility of using the model on a regional basis where limited amount of data may be used to estimate parameters for extensive areas.     

ON THE MISMATCH BETWEEN DATA AND MODELS OF HYDROLOGIC AND WATER RESOURCE SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: Many difficulties exist in the matching of models with data. This paper identifies elements of this problem and discusses considerations involved in model evaluation. The well known multivariate linear regression model is used to illustrate the distinctions between accuracy and precision and between estimation and prediction (because the model is commonly misused.) No amount of additional data will improve the accuracy of a poor model. A high R², while indicative of a good matching between the observed data and model estimates, is a poor criterion for judging adequacy of the model to make good predictions of future events. Model evaluation also includes the problem of introducing secondary data and proxy variables into a model. Secondary data frequently enter, for example, the mass, energy and water budget equations because of difficulties in measuring the primary variables. Proxy variables arise because of a desire to collapse a vector of incomparable values, say, of water quality into a single number. Review of the above issues indicates that model evaluation is a multi-criterion problem, often imbedded in a larger framework where models are intended to meet multiple objectives. The mismatch of models and data has increasing legal and social consequences.     

Determination of oral uptake and biodistribution of platinum and chromium by the garden snail (Helix aspersa) employing nano-secondary ion mass-spectrometry

Environmental heavy metal contamination is a case of concern for both animal and human health. Studying the fate of metals in plant or animal tissues may provide information on pollution. In the present study, we investigated the possibility to follow the biological fate of chromium and platinum uptake in common garden snails (Helix aspersa), typically accumulating high concentrations of metals from their environment. Chromium and platinum were administered orally to snails in 5 groups (n = 25/group): control, food contaminated by ca. 2.5 μg g^?1 and 19 μg g^?1 chromium and 2.5 μg g^?1 and 25 μg g^?1 platinum, for 8 weeks. Following exposure, surviving snails were sacrificed, shell and remaining tissue investigated by ICP-MS, and shell, midgut gland and mantle by nano-secondary ion mass-spectrometry (Nano-SIMS). ¹²C¹⁴N-normalized platinum and ⁴⁰Ca-normalized chromium measurements indicated highest enrichments in cellular vesicles of the midgut gland, and lower concentrations in mantle and shell, with significantly higher platinum and chromium concentrations in the 2 exposure groups vs. control (P < 0.05), with somewhat differing distribution patterns for chromium and platinum. Comparable results were obtained by ICP-MS, with both chromium and platinum fed snails showing drastically elevated concentrations of metals in shell (up to 78 and 122 μg g^?1 dw platinum and chromium, respectively) and in other tissues (up to 200 and 1125 μg g^?1 dw platinum and chromium, respectively). Nano-SIMS allowed for semi-quantitative comparison of metal fate in snail tissues, making this an interesting technique for future studies in the area of environmental pollution.