Development of a calibration system to evaluate VOC losses in a branch enclosure

Considerable uncertainties are associated with the experimental estimates of emission rates of different volatile organic compound (VOC) species from the biosphere to the atmosphere. Some of this uncertainty derives from the sampling and analytical procedures used in emission rate measurements. A calibration system was developed in order to evaluate possible errors in the measurements of biogenic emission rates using a branch enclosure system. Two types of calibration procedures were tested, a standard additions technique and an internal standard procedure. Both techniques were used to evaluate possible losses while sampling isoprene and monoterpenes, which are the most abundant VOCs of biogenic origin. The losses to Teflon lines and the empty sampling system were tested and losses to the branch enclosure system installed on two VOC emitting plant species were evaluated. A considerable loss of isoprene (approximately 18% of inflow concentration 65 ng l(-1)) to the empty enclosure system and to the system installed on the plant was measured, but no losses of monoterpenes were observed.     

Divergent Perspectives on Expert Disagreement: Preliminary Evidence from Climate Science,Climate Policy,Astrophysics, and Public Opinion

We report the results of an exploratory study that examines the judgments of climate scientists, climate policy experts, astrophysicists, and non-experts (N?=?3367) about the factors that contribute to the creation and persistence of disagreement within climate science and astrophysics and about how one should respond to expert disagreement. We found that, as compared to non-experts, climate experts believe that within climate science (i) there is less disagreement about climate change, (ii) methodological factors play less of a role in generating disagreements, (iii) fewer personal or institutional biases influence climate research, and (iv) there is more agreement about which methods should be used to examine relevant phenomena we also observed that the uniquely American political context predicted experts’ judgments about some of these factors. We also found that, in regard to disagreements concerning cosmic ray physics, and commensurate with the greater inherent uncertainty and data lacunae in their field, astrophysicists working on cosmic rays were generally more willing to acknowledge expert disagreement, more open to the idea that a set of data can have multiple valid interpretations, and generally less quick to dismiss someone articulating a non-standard view as non-expert, than climate scientists were in regard to climate science.     

Cross-correlation between the controlled collision environment and real-world motor vehicle collisions: Evaluating the protection of the thoracic side airbag

Objective: Thoracic side airbags (tSABs) were integrated into the vehicle fleet to attenuate and distribute forces on the occupant's chest and abdomen, dissipate the impact energy, and move the occupant away from the intruding structure, all of which reduce the risk of injury. This research piece investigates and evaluates the safety performance of the airbag unit by cross-correlating data from a controlled collision environment with field data.

Method: We focus exclusively on vehicle–vehicle lateral impacts from the NHTSA's Vehicle Crash Test Database and NASS-CDS database, which are replicated in the controlled environment by the (crabbed) barrier impact. Similar collisions with and without seat-embedded tSABs are matched to each other and the injury risks are compared.

Results: Results indicated that dummy-based thoracic injury metrics were significantly lower with tSAB exposure (P <.001). Yet, when the controlled collision environment data were cross-correlated with NASS-CDS collisions, deployment of the tSAB indicated no association with thoracic injury (tho. MAIS 2+ unadjusted relative risk [RR] = 1.14; 90% confidence interval [CI], 0.80–1.62; tho. MAIS 3+ unadjusted RR = 1.12; 90% CI, 0.76–1.65).

Conclusion: The data from the controlled collision environment indicated an unequivocal benefit provided by the thoracic side airbag for the crash dummy; however, the real-world collisions demonstrate that no benefit is provided to the occupant. This has resulted from a noncorrelation between the crash test/dummy-based design taking the abstracting process too far to represent the real-world collision scenario.     

Addressing challenges for future strategic‐level emergency management: reframing,networking, and capacity‐building

The mounting frequency and intensity of natural hazards, alongside growing interdependencies between social‐technical and ecological systems, are placing increased pressure on emergency management. This is particularly true at the strategic level of emergency management, which involves planning for and managing non‐routine, high‐consequence events. Drawing on the literature, a survey, and interviews and workshops with Australia's senior emergency managers, this paper presents an analysis of five core challenges that these pressures are creating for strategic‐level emergency management. It argues that emphasising ‘emergency management’ as a primary adaptation strategy is a retrograde step that ignores the importance of addressing socio‐political drivers of vulnerabilities. Three key suggestions are presented that could assist the country's strategic‐level emergency management in tackling these challenges: (i) reframe emergency management as a component of disaster risk reduction rather than them being one and the same; (ii) adopt a network governance approach; and (iii) further develop the capacities of strategic‐level emergency managers.     

Comparison of adsorption models in reservoir simulation of enhanced coalbed methane recovery and CO2 sequestration in coal

Coalbed methane is an important resource of energy. Meanwhile CO₂ sequestration in coal is a potential management option for greenhouse gas emissions. An attractive aspect to this process is that CO₂ is adsorbed to the coal, reducing the risk of CO₂ migration to the surface. Another aspect to this is that the injected CO₂ could displace adsorbed methane leading to enhanced coalbed methane recovery. Therefore, in order to understand gas migration within the reservoir, mixed-gas adsorption models are required. Moreover, coal reservoir permeability will be significantly affected by adsorption-induced coal swelling during CO₂ injection. Coal swelling is directly related to reservoir pressure and gas content which is calculated by adsorption models in reservoir simulation. Various models have been studied to describe the pure- and mixed-gas adsorption on coal. Nevertheless, only the Langmuir and Extended Langmuir models are usually applied in coal reservoir simulations. This paper presents simulation work using several approaches to representing gas adsorption, implemented into the coal seam gas reservoir simulator SIMED II. The adsorption models are the Extended Langmuir model (ELM), the Ideal Adsorbed Solution (IAS) model and the Two-Dimensional Equation of State (2D EOS). The simulations based on one Australian and one American coal sample demonstrated that (1) the Ideal Adsorbed Solution model, in conjunction with Langmuir model as single-component isotherm, shows similar simulation results as the ELM for both coals, with the IAS model representing the experimental adsorption data more accurately than the ELM for one coal and identically with the ELM for the other coal; (2) simulation results using the 2D EOS, however, are significantly different to the ELM or IAS model for both coal samples. The magnitude of the difference is also dependent on coal swelling and the well operating conditions, such as injection pressure.     

Aviation and global climate change in the 21st century

Aviation emissions contribute to the radiative forcing (RF) of climate. Of importance are emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), aerosols and their precursors (soot and sulphate), and increased cloudiness in the form of persistent linear contrails and induced-cirrus cloudiness. The recent Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) quantified aviation's RF contribution for 2005 based upon 2000 operations data. Aviation has grown strongly over the past years, despite world-changing events in the early 2000s; the average annual passenger traffic growth rate was 5.3% yr^?1 between 2000 and 2007, resulting in an increase of passenger traffic of 38%. Presented here are updated values of aviation RF for 2005 based upon new operations data that show an increase in traffic of 22.5%, fuel use of 8.4% and total aviation RF of 14% (excluding induced-cirrus enhancement) over the period 2000–2005. The lack of physical process models and adequate observational data for aviation-induced cirrus effects limit confidence in quantifying their RF contribution. Total aviation RF (excluding induced cirrus) in 2005 was ～55 mW m^?2 (23–87 mW m^?2, 90% likelihood range), which was 3.5% (range 1.3–10%, 90% likelihood range) of total anthropogenic forcing. Including estimates for aviation-induced cirrus RF increases the total aviation RF in 2005–78 mW m^?2 (38–139 mW m^?2, 90% likelihood range), which represents 4.9% of total anthropogenic forcing (2–14%, 90% likelihood range). Future scenarios of aviation emissions for 2050 that are consistent with IPCC SRES A1 and B2 scenario assumptions have been presented that show an increase of fuel usage by factors of 2.7–3.9 over 2000. Simplified calculations of total aviation RF in 2050 indicate increases by factors of 3.0–4.0 over the 2000 value, representing 4–4.7% of total RF (excluding induced cirrus). An examination of a range of future technological options shows that substantive reductions in aviation fuel usage are possible only with the introduction of radical technologies. Incorporation of aviation into an emissions trading system offers the potential for overall (i.e., beyond the aviation sector) CO₂ emissions reductions. Proposals exist for introduction of such a system at a European level, but no agreement has been reached at a global level.