Uncertainty analysis in integrated assessment: the users’ perspective

Integrated Assessment (IA) models aim at providing information- and decision-support to complex problems. This paper argues that uncertainty analysis in IA models should be user-driven in order to strengthen science–policy interaction. We suggest an approach to uncertainty analysis that starts with investigating model users’ demands for uncertainty information. These demands are called “uncertainty information needs”. Identifying model users’ uncertainty information needs allows focusing the analysis on those uncertainties which users consider relevant and meaningful. As an illustrative example, we discuss the case of examining users’ uncertainty information needs in the SEAMLESS Integrated Framework (SEAMLESS-IF), an IA model chain for assessing and comparing alternative agricultural and environmental policy options. The most important user group of SEAMLESS-IF are policy experts at the European and national level. Uncertainty information needs of this user group were examined in an interactive process during the development of SEAMLESS-IF and by using a questionnaire. Results indicate that users’ information requirements differed from the uncertainty categories considered most relevant by model developers. In particular, policy experts called for addressing a broader set of uncertainty sources (e.g. model structure and technical model setup). The findings highlight that investigating users’ uncertainty information needs is an essential step towards creating confidence in an IA model and its outcomes. This alone, however, may not be sufficient for effectively implementing a user-oriented uncertainty analysis in such models. As the case study illustrates, it requires to include uncertainty analysis into user participation from the outset of the IA modelling process.     

Wirkungsorientierte Umweltanalytik Kombination des pHstat-Verfahrens mit dem Biolumineszenz-Hemmtest Mobilisationsverhalten von Schwermetallen aus Feststoffen

The pH_stat-procedure is a method to examine the pH-dependent mobilisation of heavy metals and other pollutants from solids. The metals in such extracts are usually determined by atomic absorption (AAS) or by emission spectrometry (ICP-OES). The obtained values present the total amount of mobilized metals. A statement concerning the effect-oriented true toxicity of the extract, respective of the examined solid, is not possible. A combined effect-oriented procedure, such as a the bioaluminescence-inhibition test with luminescence bacteria enables a precise statement about the ecotoxicity of solids. A variation of the inhibition test (addition of EDTA) indicates the main binding forms of heavy metals and the part of inhibition caused by organic material.     

莱州湾水体中有机磷农药的残留监测与风险影响评价

研究近年来莱州湾水体中有机磷农药残留情况及对环境的影响.于2005年5月采集了渤海莱州湾及其主要河口地区的水样,用气相色谱(GC-FPD)测定了样品中有机磷农药的含量,并运用化学污染物风险评价公式进行了风险概率评价.结果表明,莱州湾海域水体中有机磷农药的含量范围在0.2～79.1 ng/L,氧化乐果、甲胺磷、马拉硫磷、敌百虫、敌敌畏、乐果、甲基毒死蜱、甲基对硫磷等在研究海域占主要部分.对研究海域水体中有机磷农药的风险评价表明,莱州湾海域水体中的有机磷农药的含量与其他地区相比,污染水平居中,氧化乐果、甲胺磷、马拉硫磷、敌百虫、敌敌畏、乐果等农药对研究海域的生态环境安全已经构成了一定的威胁,应加强该地区该类农药的施用管理.     

Caps and gaps: a computer model for studies on brood incubation strategies in honeybees (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Apis mellifera carnica</Emphasis>)

In addition to heat production on the comb surface, honeybee workers frequently visit open cells (“gaps”) that are scattered throughout the sealed brood area, and enter them to incubate adjacent brood cells. We examined the efficiency of this heating strategy under different environmental conditions and for gap proportions from 0 to 50%. For gap proportions from 4 to 10%, which are common to healthy colonies, we find a significant reduction in the incubation time per brood cell to maintain the correct temperature. The savings make up 18 to 37% of the time, which would be required for this task in completely sealed brood areas without any gaps. For unnatural high proportions of gaps (>20%), which may be the result of inbreeding or indicate a poor condition of the colony, brood nest thermoregulation becomes less efficient, and the incubation time per brood cell has to increase to maintain breeding temperature. Although the presence of gaps is not essential to maintain an optimal brood nest temperature, a small number of gaps make heating more economical by reducing the time and energy that must be spent on this vital task. As the benefit depends on the availability, spatial distribution and usage of gaps by the bees, further studies need to show the extent to which these results apply to real colonies. M. Fehler and M. Kleinhenz contributed equally to this work.     

Measurement of driving patterns of older adults using data logging devices with and without global positioning system capability

BACKGROUND: Methods to study driving patterns and exposure of older drivers have typically relied on surveys or driving diaries. Electronic data logging devices may offer a reliable, alternative method of measuring driving exposure, and global positioning system (GPS) technology may be able to provide further information about driving patterns. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to compare a driving diary with two electronic data logging devices, one of which had GPS capability, in order to identify which method best assesses the driving exposure and habits of older drivers as well as the method most acceptable to study participants. METHOD: In this prospective cohort study we recruited 20 participants aged 70 years or more (mean 78; range 70-85) (15 men and 5 women). The participants' driving patterns were recorded for one week with an electronic data logging device with GPS (FleetPulse), followed by recording for a further week with an electronic data logging device without GPS (CarChip). During both time periods the subjects also completed a standard driving diary. RESULTS: More comprehensive information, including braking and acceleration patterns, duration of driving time, time of day, and maximum speeds, was collected with the electronic devices than with the driving diary. There was excellent correlation between the driving diary data and those obtained with the CarChip (r = 0.9; p < 0.01). The correlation between the driving diary data and the FleetPulse data was moderate (r = 0.56; p = 0.02). The subjects clearly preferred the electronic monitoring devices over the driving diary. GPS data were able to demonstrate driving routes. CONCLUSIONS: Electronic data logging devices are a valid method for recording the driving patterns of older adults. These devices also reduce burden and improve the completeness of data.     

Pulsed laser micro polishing: Surface prediction model

The objective of this work is to predict the final roughness of metal surfaces that have undergone pulsed laser micro polishing. The motivation for pulsed laser micro polishing is to reduce the surface roughness of parts whose surface texture can approach the feature size. Being able to predict the magnitude of the polishing and frequency (wavelength) content of the surface will assist in the design of optimal processing parameters with minimal experiments. Laser pulses are used to create shallow melt pools with a controlled size (e.g., depth) and duration in order to allow surface tension forces to “pull down” asperities with small radius of curvature. There is no ablation occurring in the process being modeled. The melt depth and duration are predicted with a transient, two-dimensional axisymmetric heat transfer model with temperature-dependent material properties. The surface of the melt pool is analytically modeled as oscillations of stationary capillary waves with damping resulting from the forces of surface tension and viscosity. Above a critical spatial frequency, f_cr, a significant reduction in the amplitude of the spatial Fourier components is expected. The work described in this paper extends the concept of critical frequency to a physics-based prediction methodology for predicting the spatial frequency content and surface roughness after polishing, given the features of the original surface, the material properties, and laser parameters. The proposed prediction methodology was validated using line polishing data for stainless steel 316L and area polishing results for pure nickel, Ti6Al4V, and Al-6061-T6. The predicted average surface roughnesses were within 12% of the values measured on the polished surfaces.     

The effect of export to the deep sea on the long-range transport potential of persistent organic pollutants

Background  

Export to the deep sea has been found to be a relevant pathway for highly hydrophobic chemicals. The objective of this study is to investigate the influence of this process on the potential for long-range transport (LRT) of such chemicals.