A RISK-BASED MODEL FOR DROUGHT CONTINGENCY PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: A risk-based model is presented for determining action levels in real-time operation of public water supplies under drought conditions. The model, applicable to surface water supplies, is built around the almost universally adopted structure for drought management, a sequence of increasingly stringent measures to reduce demand. Action levels are determined by finding minimum storage levels that will satisfy a prescribed set of probability constraints over the remainder of a drawdown-refill cycle. Results are presented for the City of Raleigh, NC.     

Social organization in deer: Implications for localized management

Populations of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) inhabiting many state and national parks and suburban areas have grown to the point that they conflict with human activities. Conflicts range from destruction of vegetation through browsing to public perception that diseases carried by deer pose threats to human health. Traditional modes of hunting to control populations are inappropriate in many of these areas because of intense human development and activity. This article explores an alternative approach for population reduction based on deer social organization. Female white-tailed deer are highly philopatric and female offspring remain near their dams for life. This suggests that a population expands slowly as a series of overlapping home ranges in a form analogous to the petals on a rose. Incorporating the rose petal concept into a model of population growth shows that removal of deer by family unit can potentially alleviate conflicts in localized areas for as many as 10–15 yr.     

Economic incentives for TQEM: Are they in your future?

Traditional command-and-control regulations provide few opportunities for total quality environmental management because they usually do not take into account cost and efficiency factors. However, in the past several years both Congress and EPA have shown increasing interest in using incentive-type approaches to regulate the environment. These include taxes, marketable pollution privileges, deposits and refunds, information disclosure provisions, and subsidies. The author details examples of each and discusses how they can effectively complement a quality program.     

The effect of right-turn-on-red on pedestrian and bicyclist accidents

Right-Turn-on-Red (RTOR), in its “Western” version allows motorists to turn right on a red signal after stopping and yielding, unless specifically prohibited by a sign. The objective of this study was to determine the effect of Western RTOR on pedestrian and bicycle accidents in selected jurisdictions adopting the rule in the mid-1970s. The results showed significant increases in pedestrian and bicyclist accidents involving right-turning vehicles at signalized locations following the introduction of Western RTOR. These increases were: 40 % for pedestrians and 82 % for bicycles in New York State; 107 % for pedestrians and 72 % for bicycles in Wisconsin; 57 % for pedestrians and 80 % for bicycles in Ohio; and 82 % for pedestrians in New Orleans. Analysis of police accident reports suggested that drivers stopped for a red light are looking left for a gap in traffic and do not see pedestrians and bicyclists coming from their right. Countermeasure research and development was recommended to deal with this well defined problem which involves between 1 % and 3 % of all pedestrian and bicycle accidents.     

Work stress and the stress-buffering roles of work and family resources

This paper describes the development of the Work Environment Scale, which includes measures of perceived stressful and supportive aspects of the job milieu. This scale is used to examine stressful effects of the work environment on personal functioning and the stress-buffering value of work and family social resources among a representative community group of men and women. Work stressors had a greater impact on men, but supportive social resources provided more attenuation of such effects among men than among women. Although work stressors generally had less effect on men whose wives were employed, high stress in the women's work settings had some indirect negative consequences for their husbands. Reprint requests should be directed to the authors, Social Ecology Laboratory, Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Stanford University Medical School, Stanford, California 94305, U.S.A.     

Air pollution in California: Manufacturing vs. services

Relative to manufacturing, service activities are often considered by planners and officials to generate considerably less environmental pollution. This hypothesis is tested by means of an examination of the economic linkages of both manufacturing and service activities and of the resulting direct and indirect emissions of five air pollutants per dollar of output in the California statewide air basin and in four regional basins within the state. Overall acceptance or rejection of the hypothesis depends in part on the particular pollutant and air basin considered but, most importantly, on the judgement as to what activities are to be considered as service activities.This paper is based on research sponsored by the California Air Resources Board under Agreement A7-143-30.     

EVALUATING INLAND WATERWAY NAVIGATION IMPROVEMENT PROJECTS: THE CASE OF THE BONNEVILLE LOCK

ABSTRACT: The period of time from identification of a possibly desirable inland waterway transportation project to its actual implementation has been observed to be inordinately long. It is Hypothesized that at Least one cause of delays in project approval and implementation is a analytical credibility associated with project feasibility analysis conducted by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. This paper examines this hypothesis in terms of the proposal to construct a new, expanded lock at the Bonneville Dam on the Columbia River. The principle finding is that the analysis conducted by the Corps is conceptually flawed, methodologically questionable, internally inconsistant, and inappropriately narrow in scope.     

THE ENERGY SCENE IN INDIA

The Indian energy scene has undergone a distinct change during the last three decades. In overall terms the reliance on traditional (non-commercial) forms of energy has declined gradually and the share of modern commercial forms of energy has steadily increased. The preference towards commercial forms of energy has resulted in rapid growth of demand, and the growth rate of commercial energy consumption has outpaced the overall growth of the economy. While India has been able to manage oil supplies without much difficulty through indigenous production and imports, there have been balance of payments problems due to the steep increase in the import bill. An overall energy strategy has been formulated for the Sixth Five-Year Plan which will ensure adequate supplies of energy to meet short-term energy requirements while keeping in view the long-term perspective. The plan envisages achieving a balance between energy supplies and demand in the short and medium term by accelerating exploitation of domestic conventional energy resources and managing demand through appropriate measures. In the long term, exploitation of new and renewable energy resources is the basis of energy development strategy. La situation énergétique en Inde a subi une transformation distincte durant ces trois dernières décennies. En termes généraux, la dépendance vis-à-vis des formes traditionnelles d'énergie (non-commerciales) a diminué graduellement et les formes commerciales modernes d'énergie se sont accrues d'une manière constante. La préférence pour les formes commerciales d'énergie a eu pour résultat l'accroissement rapide de la demande et le taux de croissance de la consommation énergétique commerciale a surpassé la croissance totale de l'économie. Alors que I Inde a été capable de s'approvisionner en pétrole sans trop de difficulté par des moyens de production indigéne et d'importations, des problèmes de balance de paiements sont survenus à cause de l'augmentation aiguë de la facture énergétique. Une stratégie globale en matière d'énergie a été formulée pour inclusion dans le sixième plan quinquennal, ce qui assurera des approvisionnements en energie adéquats pour faire face aux exigences énergétiques à court terme tout en gardant en vue les objectifs à long terme. Le plan envisage d'atteindre un équilibre entre l'offre et la demande en matière d'énergie à court et moyen termes en accélérant l'exploitation des ressources énergétiques conventionnelles du pays et en contrölant la demande par des mesures appropriées. A long terme, la base de la stratégie du développement en matière d'énergie consiste en l'exploitation des ressources énergétiques nouvelles et renouvelables. La escena energética de la India a sufrido un cambio marcado durante las últimas tres décadas. En general la dependencia en la energia no comercial a declinado gradualmente mientras que el uso de recursos de energia comercial ha aumentado continuamente. Esto ha generado una rápida tasa de creamiento de la demanda de energia comercial que supera la tasa de crecimiento económico. A pesar de que la India pudo satisfacer sus necesidades de petróleo mediante producción propia e importaciones hay problemas en la balanza de pagos. Se ha formulado estrategia general para el Sexto Plan Quinquenal que asegurará el suministro en el corto plazo sin descuidar la perspectiva a largo plazo. El plan prevee obtener el balance de la oferta y la demanda en el corto y mediano plazo mediante una exploración acelerada y una apropiada administración de la demanda. Para el largo plazo, la explotación de recursos nuevos y renovables de energia es la base de la estrategia de desarrollo energético.