A robust approach for iterative contaminant source location and release history recovery

Contamination source identification is a crucial step in environmental remediation. The exact contaminant source locations and release histories are often unknown due to lack of records and therefore must be identified through inversion. Coupled source location and release history identification is a complex nonlinear optimization problem. Existing strategies for contaminant source identification have important practical limitations. In many studies, analytical solutions for point sources are used; the problem is often formulated and solved via nonlinear optimization; and model uncertainty is seldom considered. In practice, model uncertainty can be significant because of the uncertainty in model structure and parameters, and the error in numerical solutions. An inaccurate model can lead to erroneous inversion of contaminant sources. In this work, a constrained robust least squares (CRLS) estimator is combined with a branch-and-bound global optimization solver for iteratively identifying source release histories and source locations. CRLS is used for source release history recovery and the global optimization solver is used for location search. CRLS is a robust estimator that was developed to incorporate directly a modeler's prior knowledge of model uncertainty and measurement error. The robustness of CRLS is essential for systems that are ill-conditioned. Because of this decoupling, the total solution time can be reduced significantly. Our numerical experiments show that the combination of CRLS with the global optimization solver achieved better performance than the combination of a non-robust estimator, i.e., the nonnegative least squares (NNLS) method, with the same solver.     

Organochlorine contaminants in complete clutches of Morelet's crocodile (Crocodylus moreletii) eggs from Belize

Seven complete clutches of Morelet's crocodile (Crocodylus moreletii) eggs were collected in northern Belize and examined for organochlorine (OC) pesticide residues. The primary OC detected, p,p-DDE, was found in every egg analyzed (n=175). Other OCs detected included p,p-DDT, p,p-DDD, methoxychlor, aldrin, and endosulfan I. Concentrations of individual OCs ranged from 4 ppb (ng chemical/g egg wet weight) to greater than 500 ppb. A statistical evaluation of p,p-DDE levels in three complete clutches was used to derive the minimum number of eggs needed from a clutch to precisely determine the mean p,p-DDE concentration representative of that clutch. Sample sizes of 8 (80% confidence level) and 11 (90% confidence level) were determined to yield an accurate estimate of contaminant levels in a full clutch of eggs. The statistically recommended sample size of 11 eggs (at 90% confidence level) was successfully tested on the four additional clutches.     

Drag coefficient parameter estimation for aquaculture systems

Environmental Fluid Mechanics - The flow conditions in and around a suspended canopy, resembling those formed by aquaculture structures such as rafts cages and longlines, were modeled using an...     

The socio-economic vulnerability of the Australian east coast grazing sector to the impacts of climate change

Regional Environmental Change - Research that projects biophysical changes under climate change is more advanced than research that projects socio-economic changes. There is a need in adaptation...     

Assessment of Long-Term Trends in Fish Distributions at Multiple Scales Decreases Uncertainty Associated with Historical Datasets

Environmental Management - Monitoring long-term changes in aquatic biodiversity requires the effective use of historical data that were collected with different methods and varying levels of...     

When all life counts in conservation

Conservation science involves the collection and analysis of data. These scientific practices emerge from values that shape who and what is counted. Currently, conservation data are filtered through a value system that considers native life the only appropriate subject of conservation concern. We examined how trends in species richness, distribution, and threats change when all wildlife count by adding so-called non-native and feral populations to the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List and local species richness assessments. We focused on vertebrate populations with founding members taken into and out of Australia by humans (i.e., migrants). We identified 87 immigrant and 47 emigrant vertebrate species. Formal conservation accounts underestimated global ranges by an average of 30% for immigrants and 7% for emigrants; immigrations surpassed extinctions in Australia by 52 species; migrants were disproportionately threatened (33% of immigrants and 29% of emigrants were threatened or decreasing in their native ranges); and incorporating migrant populations into risk assessments reduced global threat statuses for 15 of 18 species. Australian policies defined most immigrants as pests (76%), and conservation was the most commonly stated motivation for targeting these species in killing programs (37% of immigrants). Inclusive biodiversity data open space for dialogue on the ethical and empirical assumptions underlying conservation science.     

The empirical properties of two classes of designs for transferable discharge permit markets

Previous work by Atkinson and Lewis (J. Environ. Econ. Manag.1, 237–250 (1974)) and Anderson et al. (“An Analysis of Alternative Policies for Attaining and Maintaining a Short-Term NO₂ Standard,” MATHTECH, Inc., Princeton, N.J., 1979) has indicated the tremendous cost advantages to be achieved by moving from a policy based on emission standards to one based on marketable emission permits. As Tietenberg (Land Econ.56, 391–416 (1980)) points out, however, neither of the major permit designs treated in the literature are optimal from all points of view. This has triggered a search for alternative permit designs, which, while they may not minimize compliance costs, have sufficient other virtues as to make them attractive on other grounds. The purpose of this paper is to examine, within the context of an empirical mathematical programming model, the air quality, emission, and cost consequences of two classes of the permit designs which can be implemented in the absence of information on control costs. This case study involves particulate control in St. Louis.     

Interactive effects of natural and human disturbances on vegetation dynamics across landscapes.

Accurate measures of human effects on landscape processes require consideration of both the direct impacts from human activities and the indirect consequences of the interactions between humans and the landscape. This is particularly evident in systems experiencing regular natural disturbances such as in the mountainous areas of southwestern China, where the remaining population of giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) is supported. Here the spatiotemporal patterns of human impacts, forests, and bamboo episodic die-offs combine to determine the distribution of panda habitat. To study the complex interactions of humans and landscapes, we developed an integrated spatiotemporally explicit model of household activities, natural vegetation dynamics, and their impacts on panda habitat. Using this model we examined the direct consequences of local fuelwood collection and household creation on areas of critical giant panda habitat and the indirect impacts when coupled with vegetation dynamics. Through simulations, we found that over the next 30 years household impacts would result in the loss of up to 30% of the habitat relied on by pandas during past bamboo die-offs. The accumulation and spatial distribution of household impacts would also have a considerable indirect influence on the spatial distribution of understory bamboo. While human impacts influence both bamboo die-off and regeneration, over 19% of pre-existing low-elevation bamboo habitat may be lost following an episodic die-off depending on the severity of the impacts and timing of the die-offs. Our study showed not only the importance of the spatial distribution of direct household impacts on habitat, but also the far-reaching effects of the indirect interactions between humans and the landscapes they are modifying.