Indigenous culture and adaptation to climate change: sockeye salmon and the St’át’imc people

This paper provides a culturally-informed understanding of the impacts of climate change on a highly important subsistence activity that has been practiced by First Nations of central British Columbia for thousands of years. The paper begins with a review of the science regarding sockeye salmon and climate change. It discusses harvest patterns, and how the timing of runs has changed. A survey was conducted by the first author regarding St’át’imc traditional fishing at a historic site on the Fraser River, in 2005. The results show that the impacts of climate change are apparent to those conducting traditional fishing practices, in terms of changed timing and abundance of salmon runs. These perceptions fit closely with the information available from scientists and management agencies. These changes are highly problematic for the St’át’imc, in that the preservation method (drying) is tied to seasonal weather patterns. The whole cultural setting, and the relevance of salmon for subsistence would be highly altered by climate change that leads to changes in the timing and abundance of sockeye salmon. The paper discusses mitigation and adaptation alternatives, but also indicates the scope of these seem limited, given the resource systems and the context of these activities.     

Sensitivity and robustness of Lagrangian coherent structures in coastal water systems

Environmental Fluid Mechanics - In coastal water systems, horizontal chaotic dispersion plays a significant role in the distribution and fate of pollutants. Lagrangian Coherent Structures (LCSs)...     

Atmospheric Change and Biodiversity in the Arctic

The Canadian Arctic is characterized by a high variation in landform types and there are complex interactions between land, water and the atmosphere which dramatically affect the distribution of biota. Biodiversity depends upon the intensity, predictability and scale of these interactions. Observations, as well as predictions of large-scale climate models which include ocean circulation, reveal an anomalous cooling of northeastern Canada in recent decades, in contrast to the overall significant increase in average annual temperature in the Northern Hemisphere. Predictions from models are necessary to forecast the change in the treeline in the 21st century which may lead to a major loss of tundra. The rate of change in vegetation in response to climate change is poorly understood. The treeline in central Canada, for example, is showing infilling with trees, and in some locations, northerly movement of the boundary. The presence of sea ice in Hudson Bay and other coastal areas is a major factor affecting interactions between the marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Loss of ice and therefore hunting of seals by polar bears will reduce bear and arctic fox populations within the region. In turn, this is likely to have significant effects on their herbivorous prey populations and forage plants. Further, the undersurface of sea ice is a major site for the growth of algae and marine invertebrates which in turn act as food for the marine food web. A rise in sea-level may flood coastal saltmarsh communities leading to changes in plant assemblages and a decline in foraging by geese and other consumers. The anomalous cooling in the eastern Arctic, primarily in late winter and early spring, has interrupted northern migration of breeding populations of geese and ducks and led to increased damage to vegetation in southern arctic saltmarshes as a result of foraging. It is likely that there has been a significant loss of invertebrates in those areas where the vegetation has been destroyed. Warming will have major effects on permafrost distribution and on ground-ice resulting in a major destabilization of slopes and slumping of soil, and disruption of tundra plant communities. Disruption of peat and moss surfaces lead to loss of insulation, an increase in active-layer depth and changes in drainage and plant assemblages. Increases of UV-B radiation will strongly affect vulnerable populations of both plants and animals. The indigenous peoples will face major changes in life style, edibility of food and health standards, if there is a significant warming trend. The great need is for information which is sensitive to the changes and will assist in developing an understanding of the complex interactions of the arctic biota, human populations and the physical environment.     

Population structure of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Symbiodinium</Emphasis> sp. associated with the common sea fan, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Gorgonia ventalina</Emphasis>, in the Florida Keys across distance,depth, and time

Numerous marine invertebrates form endosymbiotic relationships with dinoflagellates in the genus Symbiodinium. However, few studies have examined the fine-scale population structure of these symbionts. Here, we describe the genetic structure of Symbiodinium type “B1/B184” inhabiting the gorgonian Gorgonia ventalina along the Florida Keys. Six polymorphic microsatellite loci were utilized to examine 16 populations along the Upper, Middle, and Lower Keys spanning a range of ~200 km. Multiple statistical tests detected significant differentiation in 54–92% of the 120 possible pairwise comparisons between localities, suggesting low levels of gene flow in these dinoflagellates. In general, populations clustered by geographic region and/or reefs in close proximity. Some of the sharpest population differentiation was detected between Symbiodinium from deep and shallow sites on the same reef. In spite of the high degree of population structure, alleles and genotypes were shared among localities, indicating some connectivity between Symbiodinium populations associated with G. ventalina. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Gametogenic and reproductive cycles of the sea anemone, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Entacmaea quadricolor</Emphasis>

Host sea anemones are ecologically important as they provide habitat for obligate symbiotic anemonefish in many areas of the Indo-Pacific. Despite their importance, no information is available on their gametogenic cycles. This study aimed to address this lack of knowledge by determining the gametogenic cycles of Entacmaea quadricolor. Gonad samples were taken from January 2003 to February 2005 at North Solitary Island, Solitary Islands Marine Park, Australia using a specially developed non-lethal field biopsy sampling technique. Sampling was done 17 times during the study period, with 15–20 individuals being sampled on each occasion. Samples were examined prior to fixation, and then histologically sectioned to determine the reproductive activity of each individual. Female anemones were significantly more abundant than males, and had asynchronous oocyte development both within and among individuals. Male anemones showed a single annual cycle of spermary growth, development and spawning. Data from the 26-month study indicated that spawning occurred in the austral summer and autumn between January and April, which coincided with the observed spawning periods that have previously been documented for this species in outdoor flow-through seawater tanks at the study location. The biopsy sampling technique used during this study provides an opportunity to gain a more thorough understanding of the gametogenic cycles and sexual pattern of host sea anemones throughout their distribution.     

Mechanisms of nonlethal predator effect on cohort size variation: ecological and evolutionary implications

Understanding the factors responsible for generating size variation in cohorts of organisms is important for predicting their population and evolutionary dynamics. We group these factors into two broad classes: those due to scaling relationships between growth and size (size-dependent factors), and those due to individual trait differences other than size (size-independent factors; e.g., morphology, behavior, etc.). We develop a framework predicting that the nonlethal presence of predators can have a strong effect on size variation, the magnitude and sign of which depend on the relative influence of both factors. We present experimental results showing that size-independent factors can strongly contribute to size variation in anuran larvae, and that the presence of a larval dragonfly predator reduced expression of these size-independent factors. Further, a review of a number of experiments shows that the effect of this predator on relative size variation of a cohort ranged from negative at low growth rates to positive at high growth rates. At high growth rates, effects of size-dependent factors predominate, and predator presence causes an increase in the scaling of growth rate with size (larger individuals respond less strongly to predator presence than small individuals). Thus predator presence led to an increase in size variation. In contrast, at low growth rates, size-independent factors were relatively more important, and predator presence reduced expression of these size-independent factors. Consequently, predator presence led to a decrease in size variation. Our results therefore indicate a further mechanism whereby nonlethal predator effects can be manifest on prey species performance. These results have strong implications for both ecological and evolutionary processes. Theoretical studies indicate that changes in cohort size variation can have profound effects on population dynamics and stability, and therefore the mere presence of a predator could have important ecological consequences. Further, changes in cohort size variation can have important evolutionary implications through changes in trait heritability.     

A test of reproductive power in snakes

Reproductive power is a contentious concept among ecologists, and the model has been criticized on theoretical and empirical grounds. Despite these criticisms, the model has successfully predicted the modal (optimal) size in three large taxonomic groups and the shape of the body size distribution in two of these groups. We tested the reproductive power model on snakes, a group that differs markedly in physiology, foraging ecology, and body shape from the endothermic groups upon which the model was derived. Using detailed field data from the published literature, snake-specific constants associated with reproductive power were determined using allometric relationships of energy invested annually in egg production and population productivity. The resultant model accurately predicted the mode and left side of the size distribution for snakes but failed to predict the right side of that distribution. If the model correctly describes what is possible in snakes, observed size diversity is limited, especially in the largest size classes.     

Revisiting the classics: considering nonconsumptive effects in textbook examples of predator-prey interactions

Predator effects on prey dynamics are conventionally studied by measuring changes in prey abundance attributed to consumption by predators. We revisit four classic examples of predator-prey systems often cited in textbooks and incorporate subsequent studies of nonconsumptive effects of predators (NCE), defined as changes in prey traits (e.g., behavior, growth, development) measured on an ecological time scale. Our review revealed that NCE were integral to explaining lynx-hare population dynamics in boreal forests, cascading effects of top predators in Wisconsin lakes, and cascading effects of killer whales and sea otters on kelp forests in nearshore marine habitats. The relative roles of consumption and NCE of wolves on moose and consequent indirect effects on plant communities of Isle Royale depended on climate oscillations. Nonconsumptive effects have not been explicitly tested to explain the link between planktonic alewives and the size structure of the zooplankton, nor have they been invoked to attribute keystone predator status in intertidal communities or elsewhere. We argue that both consumption and intimidation contribute to the total effects of keystone predators, and that characteristics of keystone consumers may differ from those of predators having predominantly NCE. Nonconsumptive effects are often considered as an afterthought to explain observations inconsistent with consumption-based theory. Consequently, NCE with the same sign as consumptive effects may be overlooked, even though they can affect the magnitude, rate, or scale of a prey response to predation and can have important management or conservation implications. Nonconsumptive effects may underlie other classic paradigms in ecology, such as delayed density dependence and predator-mediated prey coexistence. Revisiting classic studies enriches our understanding of predator-prey dynamics and provides compelling rationale for ramping up efforts to consider how NCE affect traditional predator-prey models based on consumption, and to compare the relative magnitude of consumptive and NCE of predators.     

Testing the robustness of management decisions to uncertainty: Everglades restoration scenarios.

To effectively manage large natural reserves, resource managers must prepare for future contingencies while balancing the often conflicting priorities of different stakeholders. To deal with these issues, managers routinely employ models to project the response of ecosystems to different scenarios that represent alternative management plans or environmental forecasts. Scenario analysis is often used to rank such alternatives to aid the decision making process. However, model projections are subject to uncertainty in assumptions about model structure, parameter values, environmental inputs, and subcomponent interactions. We introduce an approach for testing the robustness of model-based management decisions to the uncertainty inherent in complex ecological models and their inputs. We use relative assessment to quantify the relative impacts of uncertainty on scenario ranking. To illustrate our approach we consider uncertainty in parameter values and uncertainty in input data, with specific examples drawn from the Florida Everglades restoration project. Our examples focus on two alternative 30-year hydrologic management plans that were ranked according to their overall impacts on wildlife habitat potential. We tested the assumption that varying the parameter settings and inputs of habitat index models does not change the rank order of the hydrologic plans. We compared the average projected index of habitat potential for four endemic species and two wading-bird guilds to rank the plans, accounting for variations in parameter settings and water level inputs associated with hypothetical future climates. Indices of habitat potential were based on projections from spatially explicit models that are closely tied to hydrology. For the American alligator, the rank order of the hydrologic plans was unaffected by substantial variation in model parameters. By contrast, simulated major shifts in water levels led to reversals in the ranks of the hydrologic plans in 24.1-30.6% of the projections for the wading bird guilds and several individual species. By exposing the differential effects of uncertainty, relative assessment can help resource managers assess the robustness of scenario choice in model-based policy decisions.     

Usefulness and uses of climate forecasts for agricultural extension in South Carolina,USA

Farmers and extensionists can use forecasts about agro-climatic conditions to reduce risks of agricultural production. Eighteen extension agents, researchers, consultants, and farmers provided feedback about decision support tools that utilize such forecasts during focus groups that were conducted in Florence, South Carolina on January 14, 2011. Climate Risk and County Yield Database were the tools most selected as potentially useful for agricultural extension in South Carolina. An irrigation scheduler was the most frequently mentioned tool to be developed. Also, a survey of Clemson University’s extension personnel was conducted in January and February 2011 to assess interest of South Carolina’s growers and producers in using climate forecasts, eleven potential uses of climate forecasts by extension’s clientele, and potential usefulness to extensionists of twelve specific forecasts. Clemson’s extensionists represent approximately 97 % of the state’s agricultural extensionists. They are more likely than not to agree that growers and producers are interested in using climate forecasts. Most of the state’s extension personnel also think that farmers could use a climate forecast to improve irrigation management and planting schedules. A majority of the state’s extensionists thinks that a freeze alert could be useful to them and the proportion that thinks the forecast could be useful exceeds the proportion that thinks any other forecast could be useful. Most extensionists also think that a forecast of plant moisture stress could be useful to help farmers schedule irrigation. The key survey results are remarkably similar to those from surveys of extension personnel at North Carolina State University in early 2009 and University of Florida in late 2004.