Future habitat loss and extinctions driven by land‐use change in biodiversity hotspots under four scenarios of climate‐change mitigation

Numerous species have been pushed into extinction as an increasing portion of Earth's land surface has been appropriated for human enterprise. In the future, global biodiversity will be affected by both climate change and land‐use change, the latter of which is currently the primary driver of species extinctions. How societies address climate change will critically affect biodiversity because climate‐change mitigation policies will reduce direct climate‐change impacts; however, these policies will influence land‐use decisions, which could have negative impacts on habitat for a substantial number of species. We assessed the potential impact future climate policy could have on the loss of habitable area in biodiversity hotspots due to associated land‐use changes. We estimated past extinctions from historical land‐use changes (1500–2005) based on the global gridded land‐use data used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report and habitat extent and species data for each hotspot. We then estimated potential extinctions due to future land‐use changes under alternative climate‐change scenarios (2005–2100). Future land‐use changes are projected to reduce natural vegetative cover by 26‐58% in the hotspots. As a consequence, the number of additional species extinctions, relative to those already incurred between 1500 and 2005, due to land‐use change by 2100 across all hotspots ranged from about 220 to 21000 (0.2% to 16%), depending on the climate‐change mitigation scenario and biological factors such as the slope of the species–area relationship and the contribution of wood harvest to extinctions. These estimates of potential future extinctions were driven by land‐use change only and likely would have been higher if the direct effects of climate change had been considered. Future extinctions could potentially be reduced by incorporating habitat preservation into scenario development to reduce projected future land‐use changes in hotspots or by lessening the impact of future land‐use activities on biodiversity within hotspots.     

National status and trends mussel watch program: chlordane-related compounds in Gulf of Mexico oysters, 1986-1990

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Status and Trends (NS&T) Program has been monitoring the chemical contamination in bivalve tissues from the US coastal waters since 1986. alpha-Chlordane, trans-nonachlor, heptachlor and heptachlor epoxide, components of technical chlordane, are among the chlorinated pesticides measured. The geographical distribution of these chlordane compounds in oyster samples from the US Gulf of Mexico is well-established. For example, highest residue levels, predominantly alpha-chlordane and trans-nonachlor, were encountered in samples collected near highly populated areas in contrast with the concentrations measured in predominantly agricultural areas. Data collected during 5 years of bivalve sampling are used to evaluate temporal trends in residue concentrations at most NS&T sites. Minor decreases can be observed in the concentrations of alpha-chlordane and trans-nonachlor. Heptachlor and its epoxide concentrations, in contrast, have been increasing since 1987.     

Spatiotemporal Variability in Water Sources Controls Chemical and Physical Properties of a Semi‐arid Urban River System

We conducted synoptic surveys over three seasons in one year to evaluate the variability in water sources and geochemistry of an urban river with complex water infrastructure in the state of Utah. Using stable isotopes of river water (δ¹⁸O and δ²H) within a Bayesian mixing model framework and a separate hydrologic mass balance approach, we quantified both the proportional inputs and magnitude of discharge associated with “natural” (lake, groundwater, and tributary inputs) and “engineered” (effluent and canal inflows) sources. The relative importance of these major contributors to streamflow varied both spatially and seasonally. Spatiotemporal patterns of dissolved oxygen, temperature, pH, calcium, chloride, nitrate, and orthophosphate indicated seasonal shifts in dominant sources of river water played an important role in determining water quality. We show although urban rivers are clearly influenced by novel water sources created by water infrastructure, they continue to reflect the imprint of “natural” water sources, including diffuse groundwater. Resource managers thus may need to account for the quantity of both surface waters and also historically overlooked groundwater inputs to address water quality concerns in urban rivers.     

中国当代环境法制之传统文化障碍——基于制度运行之现实反思

环境法制的发展,对中国多年来环境领域取得的成就功不可没。中国当代环境法制不仅存在体制矛盾,还受文化制约。环境法制的突出问题主要包括:立法质量不高,授权立法和部门立法色彩浓厚,监管体制发挥作用有限,环境司法救济滞后,环境外部成本难以内化以及公众参与不足。针对上述矛盾,从文化视角分析和解构,充分认知矛盾本身。     

A Simple Process‐Based Snowmelt Routine to Model Spatially Distributed Snow Depth and Snowmelt in the SWAT Model1

Abstract: We present a method to integrate a process‐based (PB) snowmelt model that requires only daily temperature and elevation information into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The model predicts the spatiotemporal snowpack distribution without adding additional complexity, and in fact reduces the number of calibrated parameters. To demonstrate the utility of the PB model, we calibrate the PB and temperature‐index (TI) SWAT models to optimize agreement with stream discharge on a 46‐km² watershed in northwestern Idaho, United States, for 10 individual years and use the calibrated parameters for the year with the best agreement to run the model for 15 remaining years. Stream discharge predictions by the PB and TI model were similar, although the PB model simulated snowmelt more accurately than the TI model for the remaining 15‐year period. Spatial snow distributions predicted by the PB model better matched observations from LandSat imagery and a SNOTEL station. Results for this watershed show that including PB snowmelt in watershed models is feasible, and calibration of TI‐based watershed models against discharge can incorrectly predict snow cover.     

Application of SMR to Modeling Watersheds in the Catskill Mountains

Very few hydrological models commonly used in watershed management are appropriate for simulating the saturation excess runoff. The Soil Moisture Routing model (SMR) was developed specifically to predict saturation excess runoff from variable source areas, especially for areas where shallow interflow controls saturation. A recent version of SMR was applied to two rural catchments in the Catskill Mountains to evaluate its ability to simulate the hydrology of these systems. Only readily available meteorological, topographical, and landuse information from published literature and governmental agencies was used. Measured and predicted streamflows showed relatively good agreement; the average Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency for the two watersheds were R ²=72% and R ²=63%. Distributed soil moisture contents and the locations of hydrologically sensitive areas were also predicted well.     

Current Status of Mathematical Models for Population Dynamics of Prymnesium parvum in a Texas Reservoir1

Grover, James P., Jason W. Baker, Daniel L. Roelke, and Bryan W. Brooks, 2010. Current Status of Mathematical Models for Population Dynamics of Prymnesium parvum in a Texas Reservoir. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(1):92-107. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2009.00393.x Abstract: Blooms of the harmful alga Prymnesium parvum have apparently increased in frequency in inland waters of the United States, especially in western Texas. A suite of mathematical models was developed based on a chemostat (or continuously stirred tank reactor) framework, and calibrated with data from Lake Granbury, Texas. Inputs included data on flows, salinity, irradiance, temperature, zooplankton grazing, and nutrients. Parameterization incorporated recent laboratory studies relating the specific growth rate of P. parvum to such factors. Models differed in the number of algal populations competing with P. parvum, and whether competition occurred only by consumption of shared nutrients, or additionally through production of an allelopathic chemical by one of the populations, parameterized as cyanobacteria. Uncalibrated models did not reproduce the observed seasonal dynamics of P. parvum in Lake Granbury, which displayed a maximum population in late February during a prolonged bloom in cooler weather, and reduced abundance in summer. Sensitivity analyses suggested two modifications leading to predictions that better resembled observations. The first modification greatly reduces the optimal temperature for growth of P. parvum, an approach that disagrees with laboratory experiments indicating a strong potential for growth at temperatures above 20°C. The second modification increases the growth rate of P. parvum at all temperatures, in models including cyanobacterial allelopathy. Despite these adjustments, calibrated models did not faithfully simulate all features of the seasonal dynamics of P. parvum.     

Reducing fall risk by improving balance control: development, evaluation and knowledge-translation of new approaches

Problem

Falling is a leading cause of serious injury, loss of independence, and nursing-home admission in older adults. Impaired balance control is a major contributing factor.

Methods

Results from our balance-control studies have been applied in the development of new and improved interventions and assessment tools. Initiatives to facilitate knowledge-translation of this work include setting up a new network of balance clinics, a research-user network and a research-user advisory board.

Results

Our findings support the efficacy of the developed balance-training methods, balance-enhancing footwear, neuro-prosthesis, walker design, handrail-cueing system, and handrail-design recommendations in improving specific aspects of balance control.

Impact on Knowledge Users

A new balance-assessment tool has been implemented in the first new balance clinic, a new balance-enhancing insole is available through pharmacies and other commercial outlets, and handrail design recommendations have been incorporated into 10 Canadian and American building codes. Work in progress is expected to have further impact.     

Variable Source Area Hydrology Modeling with the Water Erosion Prediction Project Model

In nondegraded watersheds of humid climates, subsurface flow patterns determine where the soil saturates and where surface runoff is occurring. Most models necessarily use infiltration‐excess (i.e., Hortonian) runoff for predicting runoff and associated constituents because subsurface flow algorithms are not included in the model. In this article, we modify the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model to simulate subsurface flow correctly and to predict the spatial and temporal location of saturation, the associated lateral flow and surface runoff, and the location where the water can re‐infiltrate. The modified model, called WEPP‐UI, correctly simulated the hillslope drainage data from the Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory hillslope plot. We applied WEPP‐UI to convex, concave, and S‐shaped hillslope profiles, and found that multiple overland flow elements are needed to simulate distributed lateral flow and runoff well. Concave slopes had the greatest runoff, while convex slopes had the least. Our findings concur with observations in watersheds with saturation‐excess overland flow that most surface runoff is generated on lower concave slopes, whereas on convex slopes runoff infiltrates before reaching the stream. Since the WEPP model is capable of simulating both saturation‐excess and infiltration‐excess runoff, we expect that this model will be a powerful tool in the future for managing water quality.     

Lake Water Levels and Associated Hydrologic Characteristics in the Conterminous U.S.

Establishing baseline hydrologic characteristics for lakes in the United States (U.S.) is critical to evaluate changes to lake hydrology. We used the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency National Lakes Assessment 2007 and 2012 surveys to assess hydrologic characteristics of a population of ~45,000 lakes in the conterminous U.S. based on probability samples of ~1,000 lakes/yr distributed across nine ecoregions. Lake hydrologic study variables include water‐level drawdown (i.e., vertical decline and horizontal littoral exposure) and two water stable isotope‐derived parameters: evaporation‐to‐inflow (E:I) and water residence time. We present (1) national and regional distributions of the study variables for both natural and man‐made lakes and (2) differences in these characteristics between 2007 and 2012. In 2007, 59% of the population of U.S. lakes had Greater than normal or Excessive drawdown relative to water levels in ecoregional reference lakes with minimal human disturbances; whereas in 2012, only 20% of lakes were significantly drawn down beyond normal ranges. Water isotope‐derived variables did not differ significantly between survey years in contrast to drawdown. Median E:I was 20% indicating that flow‐through processes dominated lake water regimes. For 75% of U.S. lakes, water residence time was less than one year and was longer in natural vs. man‐made lakes. Our study provides baseline ranges to assess local and regional lake hydrologic status and inform management decisions in changing environmental conditions.